What we know about Matthew Stafford’s future so far

The primary conversation surrounding the week at the NFL Combine will be what are the Los Angeles Rams going to do with quarterback Matthew Stafford. At this point, there are only two paths forward — either extend him and give him a pay raise with more guaranteed money or trade him. Whatever path the Rams take will be a commitment to the now or to their next era of players.

While it may seem as simple as, “Just pay Stafford whatever he wants,” it really is a lot more complicated. Stafford is a 37-year old quarterback and history for quarterbacks nearing the age of 40 hasn’t been good. There is one exception which is Tom Brady who played at a high level until age 45. It’s not realistic to also expect the same from Stafford.

Still, the Rams do seem to have a two-year window if Stafford were to remain the team’s starting quarterback. This was a team that was a completed pass away from hosting the NFC Championship Game.

Here’s the fact of the situation. Negotiations in the NFL tend to get messy. One side is going to push a story while the other pushes another. There are going to be a lot of different reports and things that are said. The best thing to do is to sift through those reports and try to find some common denominators.

Where this all started

The best place to start with a story is right at the very beginning. It’s been well-documented at this point that the starting point of the Stafford contract negotiations date back to last year. According to NFL Media, Stafford’s adjustment included a $23.5 million guaranteed salary in 2024, a $12.5 million signing bonus and a $4 million guaranteed March roster bonus.

Simply put, the Rams borrowed guaranteed money from 2025 making it essentially a one-year, $40 million deal as Stafford gave up his other 2025 guarantees. The Rams and Stafford opted to play out the season and then reasses. Well, here we are reassessing.

Stafford didn’t necessarily have his best year, but from Weeks 8-14 he ranked ninth among quarterbacks in CPOE+EPA composite. He had a middling end to the year before breaking out once again in the postseason. When the lights shine brightest, Stafford has shown that’s when he plays his best.

The Rams and Stafford Want to Stay Together

The decision on Stafford’s future has nothing to do with whether or not either side wants to remain together. As NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported, “It certainly sounds as if the priority is for Stafford to return.” ESPN’s Seth Walder also reported, “Both sides do want to shake something out, and a lot of other teams I’ve talked to, including teams that need a quarterback, are skeptical that Stafford would leave the Rams.”

When you add that to ESPN’s Dan Graziano’s report earlier this month of Stafford likely to return to L.A. in 2025 in combination with Jeremy Fowler reporting “people I’ve talked to with the Rams don’t sound overly concerned about Stafford leaving,” you start to see a picture starting to be formed.

To add a little bit of a cherry on top, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports reported, “The Rams want him back and there’s been nothing to this point that would suggest Stafford doesn’t want to play for them.”

At the end of the day, this comes down to money and whether or not the two sides can work something out. As Albert Breer said the Rich Eisen Show on Monday, “I don’t think he wants to leave Southern California. I think he really likes playing for McVay. This is about the contract.”

Stafford’s current average per year is $40 million. A serious argument can be made that he should be making more than Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson and potentially even Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence. The question becomes are the Rams willing to pay Stafford that much and, if so, can the two sides agree on a contract structure.

Over The Cap

Matthew Stafford was not granted permission to seek a trade

Pelissero’s report last week got twisted in a way that made it sound as if the Rams had given Stafford permission to seek a trade. As Pelissero reported, “They’ve also given his agent permission to speak to other teams and just figure out if he became available, what would the numbers be elsewhere?”

The way that Pelissero put it was perfect in that the Rams essentially legalized tampering. They have allowed Stafford’s agent to go out and see what he could get from other teams. Obviously a trade isn’t going to happen without a new contract anyway. This is how the Rams have tended to handle free agents and their player’s values. The Rams have allowed them to hit the open market which allows them to talk to other teams. and find their value. From there, the team can decide on whether or not they can match it or provide an ultimatum.

Allowing Stafford’s agent to talk to other teams kills two birds with one stone. It allows the Rams and Stafford to find his value and if the situation gets to the point of a trade, the skeleton of a contract is already in place.

A good way to think about it was how the Baltimore Ravens handled the Lamar Jackson contract in 2023. The Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson. This allowed Jackson and his agent to speak to other teams. At the same time, had a team offered Jackson a contract, the Ravens would have had time to match it. If they hadn’t, they would have received two first round picks.

Now, the Rams aren’t going to receive two first round picks for Stafford, but the same concept applies here. Stafford will be able to talk to other teams on what a contract could look like. The Rams can then match that or get draft capital in return.

Can the Rams afford a Matthew Stafford extension?

There seems to be a misconception when it comes to quarterbacks and large contracts. It’s easy to look at the contracts the the Dolphins handed Tua or the Jaguars handed Lawrence and say those are bad contracts holding their teams back. However, just because those contracts didn’t work out doesn’t mean paying quarterbacks is a bad thing.

If a team is going to pay one player nearly 20 percent of the overall salary cap, that player needs to be worth it. As it stands according to Schrager, “He wants to be paid more than $50 million … There are teams willing to pay him more than the Rams are currently.”

To put it simply, front offices have to have some self-awareness and pay the right player at right time. It’s easy to look at the big quarterback contracts like the Dolphins and Tua and note that they contract is probably hurting their team. Should the Dallas Cowboys have paid Dak Prescott $60 million with their roster on a downward trend? Probably not. The Dolphins offense has performed better with Tua, but could they get similar production from another starting level quarterback? Was Trevor Lawrence good enough to warrant his contract?

If a team drafts well, they benefit from rookie contracts. That’s where the Rams are at. They have an opportunity next two years to take advantage of Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, and Braden Fiske all being on a rookie deal before moving to potentially having benefit of five more years of a rookie quarterback contract. In other words, they have spending flexibility.

Over The Cap

It’s the anti-rookie quarterback contract. If you pay a quarterback a lot of money, it adds pressure to draft talent around them. Contrarily, with a rookie quarterback, there is flexibility to spend money on proven players to add the talent. It’s two different ways of roster building and the Rams have drafted well. There is reason to believe that they should try to capitalize on that.

A huge benefit of Rams having guys like Verse, Nacua, Fiske, etc. is that top-end playmakers are on rookie contracts and you don’t have $30 million tied into one player on the edge. Brian Burns of the New York Giants is making for $29.75 million in 2025 while Verse is set to make $3.4 million. Again, it’s the anti-rookie quarterback contract benefit.

The Rams aren’t sitting on the edge of being in trouble from a salary cap perspective. This is why they went through some of the salary cap pains of 2023. There are no big contracts tied into future years.

As it stands, Stafford is counting for $49.6 million against the cap. In a less than exciting free agent class and $44 million in cap space with potential for more, there is room for another $4 million or $5 million to dish out to Stafford along with guarantees.

Why should the Rams extend Matthew Stafford

The answer here seems pretty simple. When Stafford is at his best, he is among the upper-echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL. That was proven last year in both wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the win against the Buffalo Bills. If the Rams want to compete for a Super Bowl, Stafford gives them the best chance to do that. At 37 years old, he still has the ability to win outside of the system when the system is wrong.

By extending Stafford, the Rams are able to continue moving forward with one foot on each side of the “now” or “future” line. Stafford allows the Rams to compete and push for a Super Bowl. At the same time, Stafford doesn’t limit them in being able to draft a quarterback next year and also be that bridge.

It simply doesn’t make sense for the Rams to pay another quarterback like Sam Darnold or try to compete with a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers when they can do both with Stafford under center in 2025.

Why shouldn’t the Rams extend Matthew Stafford

On a surface level, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Rams and Stafford not to move forward together. However, it’s been said multiple times by multiple analysts that the Rams do have this younger core of players. Sean McVay said it himself on the Fitz & Whit Podcast. Said McVay,

“There’s no discrepancy on us wanting him to continue to lead the way and be our quarterback. The interesting and the challenging dilemma and dynamics within this are, ‘Hey, how do you continuously as a head coach look at the short term and the long term and be able to figure out what does that really look like?’

Breer expanded on this as well on the Rich Eisen Show. The Rams have this younger core of players of Puka Nacua, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, etc. At some point, the Rams are going to have to jump head first into that pool. It’s really only a matter of when they decide to do it. Their young playmakers are their core identity moving forward. It’s why the Rams are ok moving on from Cooper Kupp.

There isn’t a strong history of quarterbacks playing late into their 30s. The exception here is Brady and it’s hard to make that the expectation. Stafford’s play was more inconsistent than spectacular down the stretch last year. Players should get paid for their future value and not necessarily past performance. Are the Rams projecting the solid and not spectacular Stafford to become the norm?

While the Rams may ask for a first round pick, it’s not necessarily likely they would get it. However, they may be able to get some draft capital for 2026 that would put them in position to get one of the top quarterbacks in next year’s class. The Rams can focus on building an eco-system that benefits a rookie quarterback.

What’s Next

This situation is really going to boil down to what the conversations are like this week at the Combine. The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reported, “Stafford’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, is among those the team expects to meet with, league sources said.” Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports also reported that the Rams and Stafford’s agent are planning to meet in Indianapolis to see if they can find common ground.

How those conversations play out will have a big role in Stafford’s future with the team. The Rams would like to get this done sooner rather than later. It’s not going to be something that bleeds into training camp like last year.

If the Rams can’t get a deal done, the focus then turns to trading him. The Giants only have $48 million and would need to find a way to take on a massive Stafford contract. At the same time, the Rams would probably like to get Stafford in the AFC. The team that makes the most sense here would be the Las Vegas Raiders. That’s the team to watch here.

The Raiders could use Stafford as their bridge as they look to re-build their culture. With Tom Brady as part of the ownership group, the Raiders are going to want to get the quarterback position right and Stafford fits their immediate timeline.

In the case that the Rams are able to get a deal done with Stafford, a contract extension would likely be announced over the next few weeks.