Is trading into the top three to get a quarterback ever worth it?

I’m sorry to say, New York Giants fans, but there are still two full months to go before the 2025 NFL Draft. The wait already seems interminable, since the Giants do not have a single quarterback under contract, and whatever else they do in the interim to improve the team will pale in comparison to the big decision they will have to make in late April. Sure, there’s the palate cleanser of the NFL Combine this week, and the appetizer of a likely bridge quarterback signing in free agency a little over two weeks from now. There could even be the have-a-big-lunch-even-though-you-have-reservations-for-dinner of a trade for Matthew Stafford at any time.

Most likely, though, the key moment will be on or shortly before Day 1 of the draft, when the Giants will either sit tight at position No. 3 and hope that a QB they like is still on the board, or try to move up to No. 1 or 2. The stakes seem to be increasing lately, because rightly or wrongly, Cam Ward’s arrow has been pointing upward in recent weeks while Shedeur Sanders’ ship be sinking a bit in the eyes of draftniks:

Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database

Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database

At No. 3 the Giants are in a very precarious position, behind two teams that could easily justify drafting the two top-ranked QBs and leaving the Giants on the outside looking in. There could also be one that drops to them, but not the one they want.

It’s entirely possible that the Giants will just sit tight, let the board come to them, and then take a more developmental QB in Round 2 if both top ones are off the board. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, though, have to feel that they are on the hot seat this year after two failed seasons out of three. That may cause them to be more aggressive than they might ordinarily be and seek to move up.

Moving up in the draft to “get your guy” is often the preferred course of action for Giants fans, if comments on this site and on the app formerly known as Twitter are any indication. Ed made such a move in his recent mock draft, spending this year’s and next year’s second round picks to move up to No. 1. He drafted Cam Ward and paired him with a Jameis Winston free agency signing.

I have to admit – I love that idea. Jameis is the football equivalent of Henry Wadsworth Longfellow’s little girl with a curl. When he’s good, he’s very good indeed. But when he’s bad he’s horrid. Often in the same game. Still, wouldn’t it be better than the recent forced marches through Siberia in winter that recent Giants games call to mind? And Ward is definitely my favorite QB in this draft, just based on watching Ward, Sanders, and the other QB prospects in real time on TV.

Ed was able to get Ward without sacrificing a 2026 first-round pick. That eases the pain somewhat. Losing those second rounders stings, though, for a team that needs an edge defender, an IDL, and a cornerback. The questions for trade-ups high in the draft are: How often does the result justify the cost? How often does it even solve the problem? Let’s briefly review some of the big moves in the 21st Century NFL, focusing only on those that got teams into the top 1, 2, or 3 picks, because those are the most costly. I realize that the Giants are already in the top three, but in this year’s draft No. 3 isn’t high enough to sleep well at night.

2004: Giants-Chargers

Photo by Bob Leverone/Sporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images

This doesn’t actually qualify because rather than a trade of picks, it was a bizarre dance between a player and two teams. San Diego drafted Eli Manning No. 1 even though he had indicated he didn’t want to play for them, the Giants drafted Philip Rivers No. 4, and then the two teams traded players, with the Giants giving up their third round pick plus 2005 first and fifth-round picks.

There may not be a single Giants fan that is dissatisfied with this trade, given the two rings Eli brought home. Much of the NFL community likely feels that San Diego won the trade, though. If Rivers makes the Hall of Fame before Eli, that will be an indicator. The Giants missed out on Shawne Merriman, a Pro Bowl linebacker that San Diego chose with that extra first, and another Pro Bowl linebacker, Derrick Johnson, was there as well, but that’s a small price to pay.

Rivers was a more consistently top-notch quarterback over his career. Eli reached higher heights for about six years but had lower lows before and after. Would Rivers have won rings as a Giant? Would Eli have as a Charger? We’ll never know.

2012: Washington-Rams

Photo by Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Washington moved from No. 6 to No. 2 in order to draft Robert Griffin III, giving the Rams the No. 39 pick as well as first round picks in 2013 and 2014. RGIII looked like he’d become the real deal, but after getting Washington to the playoffs as a rookie, a serious knee injury in the playoffs ended his season and he was never the same. (He had probably been injured initially in a late regular season game but was foolishly allowed to keep playing.) Washington went 3-13 and 4-12 the next two seasons.

Interesting note: Washington also drafted Kirk Cousins in Round 4 of the same draft. Schoen has never drafted a quarterback in three seasons,

2016: Rams-Titans

Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images

This time it was the Rams giving up a boatload to trade up. Los Angeles moved from No. 15 to No. 1 to draft Jared Goff, getting the No. 133 and 177 picks from Tennessee as well. In return, the Titans also got two second round picks, a third round pick, and 2017 first and third round picks. Was it worth it for the Rams? Goff got them to the Wild Card Game in his sophomore season and to the Super Bowl the year after, but was stymied by Bill Belichick’s Vic Fangio-inspired defense in that game. Goff got the Rams to the Divisional Round two years later but was finally traded for Stafford, who finally won the Rams a ring.

2017: Bears-49ers

Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

This is the closest equivalent to the Giants’ current situation. Chicago moved from No. 3 to No. 2, giving San Francisco the Bears’ third and fourth round picks as well as their third round pick in 2018. That seemed like a lot to move up just one spot in a draft that had three QB prospects considered to be top-flight (Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson), especially since there were question marks surrounding all three. The Bears obviously made the wrong choice. To rub salt into the wound, the 49ers used that second round pick to select Alvin Kamara (whom they traded) and the third round pick the following year to draft Fred Warner.

2018: Jets-Colts

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

The Jets moved up from No. 6 to No. 3 by giving Indianapolis in addition the No. 37 and No. 49 picks plus a second round pick in 2019. The Colts famously fleeced the Jets in this deal. They used No. 6 on Quenton Nelson, No. 37 on Braden Smith, and they traded up from No. 49 to No. 36 to get Shaquille Leonard. The Jets never saw the best of Darnold, who only had his first successful season in 2024.

2021: 49ers-Dolphins

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Inexplicably, with what was perceived as four and perhaps five first round-worthy quarterbacks in this draft, San Francisco chose to move from No. 12 to No. 3, giving Miami the No. 29 and No. 102 picks in 2022 plus their first round pick in 2023 (which was later taken from them for tampering with Tom Brady). Then they used No. 3 on the highly inexperienced Trey Lance, who has yet to establish himself in the NFL and is no longer a 49er. (Meanwhile, Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, has become one of the better NFL QBs.)

2023: Panthers-Bears

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Carolina traded up from No. 9 to No. 1, giving Chicago the No. 61 pick, their 2024 first round pick, and this year’s second round pick. Then they chose Bryce Young rather than C.J. Stroud (though Young showed progress last year and the jury is still out). To make matters worse, Young’s disastrous rookie season (plus a terrible team around him) made the first round pick the Bears received No. 1…which they in turn used to select Caleb Williams, who thus far has been perhaps the worst of the five quarterbacks chosen in Round 1 who played in 2024.

The verdict

Not a single one of the trade-ups into the top three this century discussed above has obviously been a big win for the team trading up to date. Some of them have worked out well – the Giants do not regret trading up for Eli, perhaps the Rams are satisfied with what they got from Goff, especially when they eventually turned him into a ring in the Stafford trade, the Bryce Young trade may eventually work out well for Carolina, and Washington just had bad luck with RGIII.

None of these has been a clear win for the trading-up team, though, and a few have been downright disasters (Trubisky, Darnold, Lance). Yet fans continually implore their team to trade up and “get their guy.” The evidence many will present for that is last season when the Giants were not able to trade up for either of the picks that became Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, both of whom played well as rookies.

How should we interpret that? Here’s a thought. It’s really difficult to tell who is and who isn’t going to succeed in the NFL. That tells you it’s a huge risk to trade up for a quarterback. We on the outside don’t know in general, though, about all the attempted trade-ups that were turned down by the GMs holding the No. 1, 2, or 3 cards. The exception is the 2024 Giants, who we know from Hard Knocks were interested in both Daniels and Maye but were rebuffed by Adam Peters and Eliot Wolf. Perhaps some prospects are good enough that good GMs know not to pass up their chance to get them.

The two teams ahead of the Giants in this year’s draft, Tennessee and Cleveland, arguably both need QBs. The first conclusion to draw from that is that, like in 2024, neither will be willing to trade down. The second conclusion is that, if either one is willing to make a trade, they must not be impressed with either of the top two QBs.

It may be somewhat analogous to the old Groucho Marx line: “I wouldn’t belong to any club that would have me as a member.” Memo to Joe Schoen: By all means sign Jameis Winston if you can, but don’t join the club of failed trade-ups.