Is it possible for Rams, Stafford to reconcile their differences?

How likely is Matthew Stafford’s return? Is it time to worry?

After the Los Angeles Rams granted Matthew Stafford’s agent permission to speak with other teams, it’s now time to question the likelihood of the quarterback’s return for the 2025 season.

Many in the Rams community on social media and elsewhere have cautioned that there’s nothing to worry about since the latest report—that this maneuver simply allows the player and team to gauge worth outside of Los Angeles.

But the fact that we’ve gotten to this point means that it’s time to worry if you want Stafford back with the Rams this season.

Stafford’s agent wouldn’t be allowed to talk with other teams if it was a certainty that he’d be in Los Angeles for next season. If the Rams haven’t contemplated moving on, then we wouldn’t be here at this stage. I’m sure that the team does want Stafford back, but they are attempting to thread a needle between (1) the short-term nature of Stafford’s remaining career, (2) maintaining salary cap flexibility for the career primes of Jared Verse and Puka Nacua, and (3) finding a quarterback that can grow with the rest of an otherwise young roster.

How likely is is that Stafford will return to the Rams? Let’s take a look at the scenarios from all angles.

Measuring value is more complicated than it seems:

Speaking with other teams to gauge value introduces more complex variables, such as return trade compensation if say the New York Giants wanted to acquire the quarterback and give him a new contract. While in a vacuum the Giants might be willing to pay Stafford $60M annually over three years, for example, they also must weigh the cost of any draft capital they’d sent to LA in a trade.

Would New York still be willing to commit to Stafford at that aforementioned mark if they also have to give the Rams an early second young pick? Other teams are going to look at the package as a whole, and the more they have to give up as part of a trade the less favorable Stafford’s potential contract extension could become.

How this can work out from Rams’ perspective:

With that in mind, the structure of involving other teams might actually work in the Rams’ favor. Stafford and his representation probably have a value in mind for a new contract, but seeing that other teams aren’t willing to go to that mark when it also costs them draft capital might show the player that his best option is to return to Los Angeles.

Stafford’s best chance to succeed—depending on how important that is to him in his range of priorities—is with the Rams. He has the support of an elite play caller and offensive designer in Sean McVay. He’d have a number one receiver with Puka Nacua, and an offensive line that has been revamped in recent years. That doesn’t even mention the young talent on defense that carried LA in some games last season.

By letting Stafford speak with other teams, the Rams are betting on their offer and hoping the player comes to terms with the idea he’s not leaving significant money on the table and he’ll be well suited to succeed in LA.

This can all still go south, and pretty quickly:

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and there are a couple quarterback-needy teams that might pull out all the stops to land Stafford—the Rams should let them in that case.

Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen have one more season to save their jobs in New York. A veteran option would give them their best shot, and they could talk themselves into mortgaging the future to set the team up for short-term success.

Pete Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders is another situation worth keeping an eye on. Carroll is one of the older head coaches in football. He might not have the benefit of time to draft and develop a quarterback, and with Tom Brady in the ownership group, there may be pressure to be good sooner than later.

While the Rams deserve credit for being a process-oriented organization that is often on the bleeding edge of league trends, not every team operates in that way. If someone is willing to offer a big trade package to acquire Stafford and follow that up with stupid money, the Rams have to let it happen. They might not have a real choice now that they’ve allowed other parties into the conversation.

Final thoughts:

Don’t listen to individuals who tell you there’s nothing to worry about now that Stafford’s agent is talking to other teams. The longer this process draws out, the more likely it is that the quarterback is wearing a new uniform next season.

The Rams are expected to talk with Stafford’s camp this week at the NFL Scouting Combine. There could be real updates on the negotiations in the coming days, and we could have a conclusion sooner than later. However, if no news breaks into the middle part of next week, it’s probably time to mentally prepare yourself for the idea of the Rams without Stafford.