There’s not a single year where Stafford was better than Rodgers when they were both active
There’s no better and more stable indicator in terms of predictability of future performance than Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) passing grade for quarterbacks.
Raw statistics can often lie to you. Sometimes a quarterback’s best pass of a game falls incomplete, and often interceptable passes fall harmlessly to the ground. It’s wiser to put more weight behind process and potential outcomes versus end results.
With that context in mind, let’s take a look at the PFF offense and passing grades for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford over the course of their careers.
In no single season where both QB’s were active has Stafford been the better player.
Rodgers and Stafford head-to-head:
Offensive grade, passing grade, big-time throws (BTT), turnover-worthy plays (TWP), and adjusted completion percentage
Matthew Stafford
2009: 45.2 OFF; 45.8 PASS; 13 BTT; 21 TWP; 65.4%
2010: 81.8 OFF; 78.8 PASS; 4 BTT; 1 TWP; 67.0% (102 dropbacks)
2011: 76.1 OFF; 76.0 PASS; 52 BTT; 26 TWP; 74.4%
2012: 73.6 OFF; 72.0 PASS; 48 BTT; 32 TWP; 70.5%
2013: 80.3 OFF; 83.2 PASS; 33 BTT; 18 TWP; 71.9%
2014: 68.4 OFF; 68.1 PASS; 29 BTT; 17 TWP; 72.0%
2015: 65.7 OFF; 64.7 PASS; 22 BTT; 26 TWP; 76.2%
2016: 81.4 OFF: 79.0 PASS; 24 BTT; 21 TWP; 75.7%
2017: 78.6 OFF; 76.4 PASS: 31 BTT; 25 TWP; 74.3%
2018: 77.8 OFF; 76.6 PASS: 30 BTT; 21 TWP; 75.4%
2019: 82.6 OFF; 81.6 PASS: 25 BTT: 12 TWP 69.4%
2020: 82.0 OFF; 78.6 PASS; 32 BTT; 14 TWP; 73.8%
2021: 86.1 OFF: 84.6 PASS; 47 BTT; 29 TWP; 76.6%
2022: 67.0 OFF: 67.6 PASS: 15 BTT: 12 TWP; 74.7%
2023: 88.2 OFF; 86.0 PASS; 37 BTT; 12 TWP; 74.3%
2024: 74.7 OFF; 73.3 PASS; 26 BTT; 25 TWP; 73.2%
Career: 5.2% BTT; 3.2% TWP; 73.4% ADJ COMP
Aaron Rodgers
2009: 86.0 OFF; 85.3 PASS; 27 BTT; 14 TWP; 77.5%
2010: 91.3 OFF: 91.6 PASS; 55 BTT: 20 TWP; 76.6%
2011: 92.7 OFF: 92.6 PASS: 53 BTT; 7 TWP; 80.3%
2012: 89.1 OFF; 88.7 PASS: 49 BTT: 15 TWP; 80.0%
2013: 85.8 OFF: 85.0 PASSS; 18 BTT: 8 TWP; 79.3%
2014: 93.3 OFF: 91.7 PASS: 42 BTT; 19 TWP; 75.0%
2015: 75.2 OFF; 71.6 PASS; 37 BTT: 22 TWP; 72.3%
2016: 91.4 OFF: 90.9 PASS: 44 BTT; 20 TWP; 74.3%
2017: 79.2 OFF; 74.9 PASS: 11 BTT; 10 TWP; 76.3%
2018: 89.0 OFF: 86.3 PASS: 35 BTT: 11 TWP; 74.0%
2019: 83.7 OFF: 82.1 PASS: 41 BTT: 19 TWP; 74.2%
2020: 95.1 OFF: 94.7 PASS: 49 BTT: 15 TWP; 81.2%
2021: 89.4 OFF: 87.0 PASS: 36 BTT’s 13 TWP; 77.7%
2022: 77.5 OFF; 75.9 PASS; 33 BTT: 18 TWP; 75.8%
2023: Injured
2024: 77.8 OFF; 76.3 PASS: 26 BTT; 12 TWP; 73.7%
Career: 6.1% BTT; 2.2% TWP; 76.4% ADJ COMP
How Rams can talk themselves into Rodgers:
We know that LA had interest in Rodgers in the past. Before trading Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions in 2021 in exchange for Stafford, they first called the Green Bay Packers to inquire about Rodgers before getting shot down. Stafford ended up as the top veteran quarterback available that offseason.
Stafford’s top career season was in 2023 with a pass grade of 86.0. This would rank as Rodgers’ ninth-best season over his career. Rodgers was even better with the New York Jets this past season. While he had the same number of big-time throws as Stafford at 26, he kept the ball out of harm’s way and halved Stafford’s total.
In order for Rodgers to work in Los Angeles, the Rams don’t need him to be a MVP candidate. Perhaps the biggest contributions he can provide to the Rams are taking care of the football, being a field general, and helping mentor the quarterback of the future.
Trading Stafford also has potential benefits such as added premium draft capital, saved salary cap flexibility, and the fact that Rodgers should be one of the more affordable veteran quarterback options on the open market.
This maneuver makes a lot of sense for the Rams. Don’t let people tell you that Rodgers is washed up or a lesser version of Stafford at this point of this career—that is simply false.
With each passing day the likelihood of the Rams reaching an agreement on a contract extension with Stafford becomes less likely and the probability of Rodgers being under center increases. LA cannot afford to tie up salary cap resources on a potential Stafford extension in 2026 or 2027 in case the veteran decides to hang it up and retire or misses significant time with injury.
The longer you think about it, the more is makes sense for the Rams to trade Matthew Stafford and join forces with Aaron Rodgers.
