Vic Fangio is the steal of the year
Saquon Barkley was the best free agent signing in 2024. But the best signing the Eagles made might have been Vic Fangio. Last season the Eagles play callers were a serious disadvantage. This year, they’ve been difference makers. It may decide the Super Bowl.
Coaching Matters
From Week 6 on—after the bye week and insertion of Cooper DeJean into the lineup, and not counting end of half kneel downs and the completely meaningless Week 18 Giants game, these are the Eagles’ defense points per possession against:
- First quarter: 1.52
- Second quarter: 1.32
- Third quarter: 1.79
- Fourth quarter: 1.44
1.79 points per possession against for a full season would be 6th best in the league. For the Eagles defense, it’s their worst quarter. The bigger takeaway here is that the defense is winning the game of in-game adjustments, the 2nd and 4th quarters are improvements from the 1st and 3rd.
Take the first Rams game for example. The Rams moved the ball very well on their first two drives, turning the ball over in the red zone on their first possession and then scoring from it on their second possession. But then they got out of the scripted plays and went three and out on their next three possessions. From then on, they were chasing the game. It was the same story against the Ravens, who also reached the red zone on their first two possessions, kicking a FG and then scoring a TD. But their next three possessions were also three and outs, for the rest of the game they never reached the red zone until a garbage time TD.
If the Chiefs score early, take a breath. We’ve seen this before.
On offense, it’s a similar story (also Week 6 on, minus kneel downs and Week 18):
- First quarter: 2.37
- Second quarter: 2.85
- Third quarter: 3.59
- Fourth quarter: 3.15
Kellen Moore hasn’t been perfect, and he is about to be the Saints head coach largely because somebody has to be the Saints head coach. But he has been good, and that’s enough with the talent on this team. The offense just keeps getting better and better as the game progresses. The dip in the fourth quarter is entirely because team of course has simply not needed to score, they’ve had three end of game possessions where they simply let the clock expire, two in the red zone, another at midfield. If they kicked FGs instead of kneeling in the red zone, they’d be at 3.33 points per possession. TDs instead? 3.58. Or if we just discard those possessions, they’re at 3.47. This offense is built to wear down defenses as the game goes on, and Moore is getting it done. As we saw last year, not everyone can.
NFCCG Hangover?
The Eagles kicked the crap out of the Washington Football Team Commanders in the NFC Championship Game. It was awesome. But was it too much of a beat down? We see all the time that teams that blowout a team one week can come back to Earth immediately the next week. Just look at the Commanders. Do teams that stomp the opposition in their conference title game come up lame in the Super Bowl?
No, they do not.
There have been 18 conference championship games decided by 21 or more points. 8 of those 18 blowing winning teams, nearly exactly half, won the Super Bowl. And win or lose, only 8 of those Super Bowls were decided by more than one score. 4 were wins, 4 were losses. Unfortunately blowing out the Commanders doesn’t indicate that the Eagles are about to beat the Chiefs. But fortunately it also doesn’t indicate that they’re about to have a let down and get beat.
GO BIRDS
