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Vikings Links: Whose Your QB For 2025?

It appears that the consensus is that JJ McCarthy should be given the QB job without any competition. If alternate idea is suggested for discussion sake, the defenders arrive in full force and will label/slander the person making the idea. Comical.

I do plans every offseason and I try to do different versions for possible discussion. I have no clue what the team is going to do nor do I have a preference. Yet. I will not be upset with any outcome besides bringing back Kork.

Minnesota Vikings News and Links

Vikings first-round QB J.J. McCarthy just asking for ‘fair opportunity’ in 2025 return

“All I can ask for is a fair opportunity,” McCarthy said Tuesday on The Rich Eisen Show. “That’s the one that I feel like everybody’s given and it’s fundamental. When money gets involved, things get complicated, and reps get skewed and there’s different things that come into the whole ‘political’ world that everyone talks about. But I really just have to focus on controlling what I can control. My feelings don’t matter.”

Despite his status as the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy isn’t expecting any preferential treatment upon his return it would seem.

“I’m not getting any grace,” he said. “There’s no sympathy. This is the big leagues.”

The 22-year-old just plans to move forward, much as he did during the season, taking from it what he could and trying to draw from O’Connell.

“Our conversations have just been [about nothing but] the greatest thing for the Minnesota Vikings,” McCarthy said. “At the end of the day, there’s a lot of things that are certainly above my pay grade and some things above his pay grade. He’s the one that has the pen last on the field, and that’s about all I know. So, just be in the moment with him every chance I get to interact with him and really pick his brain, because those are a lot of moments I could mess up thinking about the future, thinking about the uncertainties I can’t do anything about. It’s really just optimizing each moment and each time I have with that great mind of the game.”

“I’m just gonna control what I can control,” he said, “and attack each day with an enthusiasm [unknown] to mankind.”

J.J. McCarthy confirms he’s ahead of schedule in recovery from knee injury

“I would say this, he’s ahead of schedule,” Sports Illustrated insider Albert Breer told Rich Eisen this week. “He’s able to do just about everything now. The second surgery was really just a clean-up. And he’s gonna have a full offseason. So he’s not gonna be limited by anything this offseason.”

McCarthy, appearing on Eisen’s show on Tuesday, was asked if that characterization is a fair way to put it.

“That’s very fair,” he said.

Justin Jefferson on the Vikings QB situation: ‘J.J. will definitely get his shot’

Alright, JJ yesterday said he just wants a fair shot to compete at the quarterback position.

You had Sam Darnold this year.

We’re all trying to figure out outside the building for what’s the future of the quarterback position look like for the Vikings.

What do you want the future of the quarterback position to look like?

Yeah, um, I mean, JJ.

Definitely is uh I I feel like he’s definitely going to get his shot and uh get his opportunity to to to do something and see where it goes, you know, just seeing how he was performing before he got injured, uh, it was definitely looking, you know, pretty good, and, uh, you, you have to give your first round pick an opportunity uh that’s, that’s, you know, a must and that just goes with your practice being in training camp, being in OTAs, uh, that position battle is gonna happen, you know.

Regardless, uh, but you know, having Sam, uh, being in there the whole season, you know, this past year, having 14 wins, uh, bringing us to the playoffs, you know, that just doesn’t happen, uh, overnight, you know, he just doesn’t just get a quarterback off the couch and he can just come and win 14 games for you, uh, so you know you, you definitely have to keep that in the back of your mind also, and, uh, I mean I feel like, you know, uh, we’re gonna bring Sam back you know I’m not sure though, so don’t take my words for it.

But um I mean I think you know it’ll be good to have him back and uh to to build and to you know to see where it goes but I definitely think JJ is gonna have this opportunity and uh you know I don’t know I don’t know what you’re better at answers that question perfectly or run around I’m not sure you’re joining us with Visa.

Rumor: Vikings will be ‘pretty aggressive’ in free agent guard market

Minnesota needs upgrades on the interior of the offensive line. Neither Ed Ingram nor Dalton Risner are the answer at right guard, and the other two starters (LG Blake Brandel and C Garrett Bradbury) should be on shaky ground as well. The crown jewel of this year’s free agent guard class is Trey Smith, a former sixth-round pick who has been consistently excellent for the Chiefs over the course of his rookie contract.

Between the regular season and playoffs, Smith has started 79 of 80 games at right guard for Kansas City since he was drafted, playing over 5,200 snaps. He and his teammates are going for a third consecutive Super Bowl win on Sunday. Smith has earned PFF grades between 72 and 76 every season, including strong marks as both a run blocker and pass protector. He’s about as consistent as they come — and the Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling thinks the Vikings will have plenty of interest in getting him to Minnesota.

“I think they’ll be pretty aggressive for players like that,” Goessling said to KFAN’s Paul Allen. “I think they are going to be aggressive at guard. He’s probably at the top of the guard market, which will be expensive. But I think they are going to make a big priority of going after a guard. And I think they would have a lot of interest in getting a guy like him in here. So I would expect they’d be involved if he makes it to the market, which he might, because the Chiefs have other guys to sign. … I think it’s very possible that they get in the mix for him.”

Is ‘positional value’ changing?

If history has proven anything in the NFL, it’s that the truths about the league one year can be different by the next season.

If you went back 365 days and asked 100 analysts whether teams should invest big cap dollars and draft capital on the interior offensive linemen and running back positions, you likely would have gotten at least 90 “no” votes. Yet here we are with the No. 1 and No. 3 highest paid left guards in terms of guaranteed dollars playing in the Super Bowl along with the highest paid center and second highest paid running back. Not to mention that the Philadelphia Eagles spent a 2021 second-round pick and 2022 second-round pick on interior O-line and the Chiefs spent a 2021 second-rounder on a center (and hit a home run on a fifth-round guard too).

But last year in free agency we started to see some evidence of teams putting more value into the guard position. The Panthers signed Robert Hunt to a contract worth $20 million per year, Washington paid Sam Cosmi $18 million and the Rams went all-in with big deals for Kevin Doctson ($16 million) and Jonah Jackson ($17 million).

What does this mean for the Vikings this offseason?

When it comes to the guard position, there appears to be a high chance that the top players are going to reach new heights in terms of per-year and guaranteed dollars. In particular, Chiefs pending free agent Trey Smith has a chance to become the highest paid interior lineman in the league if he hits the market. Players like Chicago’s Teven Jenkins and San Francisco’s Aaron Banks could go for much higher prices than we would have expected even two years ago.

When we look at the recent performances from guards around the league, the pay increase for top free agents appears justified. In 2017, there were 34 guards who received PFF grades higher than 70 and 47 guards who allowed fewer than 30 pressures. In 2024, only 21 guards topped 70 grades and 37 who gave up 30 pressures or less.

To put it in perspective: Vikings guard Alex Boone had a PFF grade of 73.5 in 2016, which ranked 36th and many considered him an unsuccessful signing. In 2024, 73.5 would have cracked the top 15 in pass pro and his 16 pressures allowed would have ranked in the top five.

Those routes haven’t just failed the Vikings, they are failing for everyone. If we look at the top 15 guards by PFF pass blocking grade this year, 12 of them were either highly paid free agents or drafted in the first two rounds. Just outside the top 15 was Carolina’s Damien Lewis and Detroit’s Kevin Zeitler, two more that fall into that category and Trey Smith, the expected top FA this year.

The numbers don’t lie here: While there are still development stories on the interior of offensive lines around the league, those getting an edge are paying for it with capital. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they were barking up the right tree by taking several of them high in the past few years, but having those picks fail put them behind the eight ball in terms of solidifying the position.

NERD ALERT!

Deep Dive on Next Gen Stats for Vikings Defense Reveals Factors in Improvement

Minnesota’s defense didn’t have all the answers in 2024, but enough for an A+ on its report card.

Second-year Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores worked wonders matching an influx of free agents with a versatile core. His blitz-laced scheme sparked 49 sacks, 33 takeaways and 24 interceptions.

Furthermore, Minnesota’s defense tightened security on weighty downs, letting opponents convert on fourth down at the lowest clip in the league (37.1%) and at the fourth-lowest rate on third down (35.6%).

Totals reflected improvements from Flores’ first season dialing defensive play calls for the Vikings, when his group forced 11 fewer turnovers, missed 21 more tackles, surrendered a smidge more than 21 points per contest, buckled on an NFL-worst 72.0% of fourth-down tries and amassed a passer rating against of 95.2, compared to this past season’s mark of 82.4, which was second in the league behind Detroit (82.0).

All told, the 2024 unit was fifth in points against per game, at 19.5, and second with 93.4 average rushing yards allowed.

2 Favorable Defensive Stats:

1. Crushing rushing expectations

Minnesota defenders were solid at setting edges and stopping the run. As a whole, the defense gave up the third-fewest rushes of 10-plus yards (39), the fourth-fewest rushing yards before contact (1.06 per carry) – a testament to governing offenses at the point of attack – and fifth-fewest yards over expected (minus-39). They were terrific in just about every facet – and indifferent to publicity and positive reviews.

The group selflessly handled assignments, dictating terms inside and outside the tackle box that had resounding impacts on each game but rarely generated the kinds of headlines you’d associate with an historically efficient résumé. Overall, the Vikings lacked highlightable run denials – they were 16th with a 16.6 “stuff” percentage (runs for no gain or a loss) – but played a winning brand of run defense, as evidenced by their NFL-leading tally of minus-0.17 expected points added per rush by opposing offenses.

That EPA/Rush barely trailed New England’s minus-0.18 in ‘23 and finished as the No. 2 mark in the past five years. Four defenses in 2019 – the Jets, Steelers, Eagles and Buccaneers – were minus-0.19 or better.

Unsurprisingly, Minnesota’s run defense in 2024 was strongest, compiling its stingiest EPA/Rush (minus-0.26), when it loaded the box with eight-plus defenders. But in lighter personnel groupings, with six or fewer in that space, the Vikings were tough to outflank, too, producing an EPA/Rush of minus-0.12.

Before closing, we should note a couple underlying factors contributing to dominance in that area: 1) Minnesota logged a league-leading 701 defensive plays with an advantage on the scoreboard, resulting in teams throwing instead of running in such circumstances on 69.2% of plays; 2) Flo’s blitz-heavy strategy brings defenders toward the action and kicks in “attack” instincts before the ball is snapped.

2. Improved average time to pressure

The Greenard and Van Ginkel Show treated spectators to 23.5 combined sacks and 119 pressures.

In 2024, Minnesota’s pass rush thrived on its NFL-best blitz rate of 40.6% and viewed every millisecond rushing the passer as precious. In the end, the unit was second fastest in terms of reaching the QB, averaging 2.53 seconds to pressure; the Raiders (2.52) were speedier, but their stats weren’t as gaudy.

2 Improvable Defensive Stats:

1. Too much separation

One problem that persisted during Minnesota’s 14-3 regular season was target separation: The average distance between a pass catcher and the nearest Vikings defender upon a throw’s arrival was 3.8 yards.

That was fourth worst in the NFL, pegged behind Buffalo and ahead of Arizona, Miami and Las Vegas. So you know, Detroit, Baltimore and Washington ranked around 3.2 yards at the other side of the spectrum.

Ironically, it’s a sizable improvement from 2023, when Minnesota was 32nd at 4.3 (the worst mark tracked in the NGS database since 2018) and the only unit to average worse than 4.0 yards of separation.

What gives?

Two things must be mentioned in this conversation: Firstly, the Vikings have played heavy doses of zone coverage with Flores at the helm, which poses as a tweak in philosophy from the previous regime. That in itself correlates with green grass standing between receivers and defenders, although it doesn’t forgive if there’s too much green grass and doesn’t pin zone-drop rules as the main antagonist of leaky coverage. Secondly, the average age of Minnesota’s top three CBs and safeties in ‘24 was 29 years old.

2. Late-game lapses

Nevertheless, here’s several alarming stats linked to the final frame of games: 45% of red-zone plays run by opponents on Minnesota’s watch occurred in the fourth quarter; roughly 42% of touchdown passes against the Vikings happened within that 15-minute period, as did the fifth-most completions that traveled 20-plus yards in the air (24), and an NFL-high 138 “long” pass attempts, surpassing 2.5 seconds.

Vikings, Colts trade proposal sends $46 million superstar to Minnesota for swap of picks

The Bleacher Report scouting department recently broke down potential trade assets, targets and packages for all 32 NFL teams. The B/R staff proposed a blockbuster between the Vikings and Indianapolis Colts that would send superstar defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to Minnesota for a swap of draft picks.

Here was the full hypothetical trade package:

Hypothetical Trade We’d Love to See: 2025 third-round pick (No. 97 overall) and 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 161 overall) for DL DeForest Buckner, 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 152) and 2025 sixth-round pick (No. 191 overall)

The Vikings took a big step up in scoring defense this season. They finished fifth with Flores conducting a defense that had the highest blitz rate in the league. With a little more talent up front, they could be the best defense in the league. That’s the kind of ceiling they would have by adding a player like Buckner into the mix. For all the success the Vikings had, they don’t have a dominant interior defender. With Jonathan Bullard and Jerry Tillery set to hit free agency, they will have to find answers for who will play on the inside. Buckner is 30 years old, but he’s still a handful for teams to block. He had 6.5 sacks and eight tackles for a loss in 12 games played with the Colts this season.

An Off Season Plan before the mock

Starting Cap Space

2025: $58,012,543

2026: $101,508,844

Franchise tag Sam Darnold and trade him to Raiders for pick #68, #178, and a conditional 2026 4th or 5th

Cut Ed Ingram : saves 3.325M in 2025 cap space

Cut CJ Ham : saves 2.65M in 2025 cap space

Extend Dalton Risner 2 yr 8M

Sign LG Teven Jenkins 3 yr 45M

Sign Charvarius Ward CB 3 yr 48M

Sign S Trevon Moehrig – 3 yr 45M

Sign DT BJ Hill 2 yr 24M

Sign RB Najee Harris 3 yr 33M

Sign QB Justin Fields 1 yr 8M

Ending Cap Space

2025: $19,437,543

2026: $32,678,844

With 19M still remaining, the Vikings could be players in the cut candidate market.

They could free up 8M by redoing the deals of Van Ginkel and Oliver.

Yore Mock

Trades

Trade Partner: Las Vegas Raiders

Sent: Sam Darnold

Received: Round 3 Pick 4, Round 6 Pick 4, Future Round 4 Pick

…

Trade Partner: Kansas City Chiefs

Sent: Round 1 Pick 24

Received: Round 1 Pick 32, Round 3 Pick 32

…

Trade Partner: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sent: Round 3 Pick 33

Received: Round 4 Pick 5, Round 6 Pick 18

…

Trade Partner: LA Chargers

Sent: Round 5 Pick 1, Future Round 5 Pick

Received: Round 4 Pick 23, Round 6 Pick 33

…

Trade Partner: Miami Dolphins

Sent: Round 5 Pick 22, Round 6 Pick 33

Received: Round 5 Pick 12, Round 7 Pick 15

…

32: R1 P32 DL Walter Nolen – Ole Miss 6’3” 305’

68: R3 P4 G Tate Ratledge – Georgia 6’6” 320

96: R3 P32 CB Nohl Williams – California 6’1” 200

106: R4 P5 LB Smael Mondon – Georgia 6’3” 235

124: R4 P23 RB Dylan Sampson – Tennessee 5’11” 201

149: R5 P12 DL Jordan Phillips – Maryland 6’3” 320

179: R6 P4 C Jonah Monheim – USC 6’5” 310

193: R6 P18 WR Kyle Williams – Washington State 6’0” 186

230: R7 P15 EDGE Barryn Sorrell – Texas 6’4” 260

236: R7 P21 CB Mac McWilliams – UCF 5’10” 181

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