• The Chiefs should lean on 10-to-19-yard passes: Patrick Mahomes has been lethal on intermediate attempts in the playoffs, and the Eagles haven’t been as effective guarding that region.
• The Eagles need to limit Kansas City’s third-down production: Philly’s elite pressure rate on third down could help get the Birds off the field.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

While the NFL world has been mired in scouting showcases and frenetic trade requests, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles have remained steadfast in their preparation for Super Bowl 59. A two-week respite has offered both sides ample time to prepare for the biggest game of the 2024 season — and arguably the most important game of these players’ careers.

Both squads have followed consistent blueprints over the regular season and postseason to reach Caesars Superdome, which they will hope to replicate on Sunday. However, each will also need to check off boxes for this specific matchup in order to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Here are the key factors that will determine whether the Chiefs or Eagles come out on top in Super Bowl 59.

Kansas City Chiefs

Keep passing in the intermediate range

When the postseason arrives, you can count on seeing the most efficient and mistake-free version of Patrick Mahomes. That also tends to dovetail with the quarterback being pinpoint accurate in the 10-to-19-yard range, where he’s turned things up a notch in late January. In the 2024 postseason, Mahomes has posted a 92.2 PFF passing grade on intermediate throws, up from an 80.7 passing grade in the regular season. More broadly, over the last four postseasons, Mahomes ranks top-two among all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (94.2), completions and passing yards in the intermediate area.

While the Eagles defense has played at a premium level all year, the team has had some issues against intermediate passes. Philly ranks 21st league-wide in EPA allowed per play, 16th in success rate and ninth in team coverage grade on attempts between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

When you consider Mahomes’ reluctance to try deep passes this year — his 8.1% deep throw rate was the third-lowest among qualifiers — and the Eagles’ league-best 91.1 team coverage grade on 20-plus-yard attempts, the formula should be clear. The Chiefs’ best passing plan is to utilize Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the intermediate range instead of testing a no-fly zone on shot plays.

Limit Saquon Barkley, especially early

It’s no secret that stopping Barkley will be atop the Chiefs’ defensive game plan. The problem is that virtually nobody has been able to stop Saquon Barkley, even throughout the postseason.

However, Kansas City could have some solutions.