Vikings Links:  It’s Silly Season!

The pre-draft crapola is here and the free agency silly season has begun. The latest is the Cooper Kupp and Myles Garrett potential trades. Kupp seems like he is definitely being traded. Garrett wants to play for a contender which will NOT be the Vikings next year with JJ McCarthy starting. Go ahead and bookmark this because I would love to be wrong. I just have not had any purple drank yet. Also, and more importantly, the Browns would have to eat an additional 16.5M in dead money cap space to trade him before June 1st. I do not believe you can do a trade before June 1 and designate it as post June 1. I do believe you can do that with cuts. After June 1, they would save 5M in cap space, eat 14.7M in dead money for 2025, and 21.4M in dead money for 2026.

Deshaun Watson did redo his deal to lower that 73M cap hit but it is not showing up on overthecap yet.

Watson has two years remaining on the five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million deal that he signed upon being traded to Cleveland before the 2022 season. The Browns owe Watson $46 million in each of the next two seasons, and he has a cap hit of $72.9 million in 2025 and 2026 — both the second highest in the NFL.

The reworked contract adds two void years to the deal, allowing the Browns to push out his dead salary cap into 2030, sources said. Watson’s contract contained two void years (2027-28) before the restructure. Now, it has four. He’s still under contract for the next two years and set to be a free agent in 2027.

They are sitting at negative 30M in cap space now which is obviously not up to date yet. I like to play around with the Vikings salary cap space and even I cannot figure out how they could trade Garrett but I am sure they will come up with something.

I would not want the Vikings to go after either one. I think Nailor is ascending. The Vikings need to spend and trade ONLY for offensive and defensive linemen, cornerbacks, and a safety.

It is fun to dream though.

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Minnesota Vikings News and Links

Kevin O’Connell should pursue major upgrade familiar in nature to help J.J. McCarthy thrive in 2022

The 2021 season was special for the Rams because of the emergence of both Stafford and Cooper Kupp. They had a magical connection in their first year that vaulted Cooper Kupp to winning Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl Most Valuable Player, while also winning the receiving triple crown.

On Monday night, Kupp sent out a tweet saying that the Rams are looking to trade him.

The Rams are in an interesting spot. They are halfway between winning now and rebuilding. Kupp is currently one of their biggest contracts on the books with a salary cap hit of $29,780,000. He is only behind Stafford, who is shortly under $50 million.

The Vikings acquiring Kupp would be really interesting. While he isn’t the same kind of athlete he was three years ago, Kupp is still a good slot receiver. The Vikings love to use condensed formations, so he could be a really valuable player in O’Connell’s offense.

Now comes the interesting element. What would acquiring Kupp take? For starters, it would come with a $20 million salary cap hit. His base salary is $12.5 million and a $7.5 million roster bonus is due on March 15th. The Vikings currently sit with $58 million in salary cap space, so they could absorb that money. A trade would likely come with a revised contract, as only $5 million is fully guaranteed.

The other element would be in trade compensation. A player of his talent would likely bring in a third or fourth-round pick considering his age and contract. There is one other factor that needs to come into play: the Rams tend to make trades to help their players over themselves.

The Vikings could theoretically get Kupp for a discount in the same way. Possibly trading their fifth-round pick for Kupp and one of the Rams’ sixth-round picks, as they own the rights to the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans’ sixth-round picks.

There is one element involved here that could come into play. Jordan Addison could miss the first three games of the season if his legal matter is closed by then. Addison is currently charged with Driving Under the Influence in California stemming from a July incident. Having Kupp on the team would be a huge asset.

This wouldn’t be the best use of resources, but a modified contract could elevate the Vikings’ offense to another level, especially as J.J. McCarthy takes over as quarterback.

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What could the Vikings offer the Browns for Myles Garrett?

The Minnesota Vikings don’t have roster holes to plug when it comes to edge rushers, but generational talents like Myles Garrett don’t become available every day. It would be unwise for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to not at least pick up the phone and call his old boss in Cleveland, Andrew Berry, to see what’s possible.

Garrett went public Monday with a statement saying he has requested a trade. The 29-year-old has 102.5 sacks in 117 career games and he’s had at least 14 sacks in four consecutive seasons. He was the 2023 AP Defensive Player of the Year and he’s been named a First Team All-Pro in four of the last six seasons. In the two seasons he didn’t make the First Team, he was voted onto the Second Team.

What’s it going to take to get him from Cleveland?

An anonymous general manager told Dianna Russini of The Athletic that it’s probably going to cost a first-round pick and more. The GM suggested that a first-round pick and a second-round pick, or a first-rounder plus two third-round picks and a player, might get the job done.

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Vikings are “Really Happy with JJ McCarthy” According to New Report

According to a recent report from NFL insider Albert Breer, the Vikings are really pleased with how JJ McCarthy is progressing in his recovery. He started traveling with the team back in October, and now he’s not only up and running, but he’s also throwing the ball again.

The Minnesota Vikings are really happy with J.J. McCarthy. He’s back moving around and throwing, and will have a full offseason following August’s meniscus repair and a subsequent second procedure in the fall that turned out to be more of a cleanup than anything else.

That said, I don’t think that means you close the book on Darnold in Minnesota….But with the feeling that McCarthy can at least be a solid starter, the Vikings don’t need to act out of desperation.

So, if Darnold’s contractual demands are in line with where the Vikings see him, then great. If not? They could tag him at around $40 million, and maybe trade him. Or tag him and keep him for a year.

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Report: Vikings could use rare transition tag on Sam Darnold

A report Saturday from the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama suggests that the Minnesota Vikings still haven’t come to a decision about Darnold, but they could use a fairly rare tactic with Darnold before free agency begins March 10.

“The Vikings have not yet made a firm determination on Sam Darnold’s future with the team. His strong play this season has caused them to pause and take a hard look at their options,” writes ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.

“Bringing him back feels like a stronger possibility than it was five or six months ago. But the Vikings will have a cap on spending here,” Fowler continued. “Some agents have argued that Darnold shouldn’t take a penny less than Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million deal with the Giants from two years ago. Teams have suggested Darnold getting something more in line with Baker Mayfield’s contract (three years, $100 million). In the end, perhaps the transition tag ($35.3 million) makes the most sense.”

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Next Gen Stats: Vikings Offensive Gains in 2024; To-Do List for 2025

In many facets, the latest iteration of the Vikings offense delivered the sharpest results yet on Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s watch. Firstly, and making good on an offseason focus, the unit trimmed its turnovers to 21 after barreling from 23 in 2022 to 34 in 2023. Also, it averaged slightly more yards per play (5.6 compared to 5.5 in 2022-23) and rescued its ground game from the brink of extinction, lifting its rushing yards per game from 27th in the NFL in 2022 (97.7) and 29th in 2023 (91.4), all the way up to 19th (109.1) this past season. Points per drive in 2024 (2.16) also bounced back (1.85 in ‘23 and 2.04 in ‘22).

The 2024 ensemble didn’t convert as frequently on third or fourth downs, or in the red zone, as O’Connell’s inaugural group in 2022. Actually, the ‘24 offense was outside the top 10 on third down (40%), ranked near the bottom of the league on fourth (46.2%), despite risking it on an NFL-low 13 plays, and got fatigued in the red zone, scoring six points on a bit more than half of its trips to the area (55.7%).

1. Balanced attack

In ‘24, the Vikings tried to throw on 56.6% of their plays; that’s a 6.7% decrease from the previous season, and definitely not third-most anymore – 15 clubs ended with a greater percentage of pass plays.

The team’s quantum leap in rushing, progressing from running on 36.0% of its plays in 2022 to 36.7% in 2023 and 43.4% in 2024, netted Minnesota modest year-over-year change on the ground but sourced excellent results in the air. In 2024, the Vikings were fifth in passing TDs (35), sixth in passing yards per game (237.8), eighth in passing yards per play (6.8) and 10th in expected points added per throw (+0.04).

The far-more-balanced attack helped Minnesota finish with an O’Connell-era best 25.4 points per game.

2. Play action success

O’Connell’s pass-heavy offenses in 2022-23 thrived on play-action concepts. So, like any smart operation, of course, the 2024 version doubled down on its strengths, and then reinforced and raised them a level.

Overall on play-action calls, Minnesota was second in passing yards per play (9.2), third in TDs (13), fourth in passing yards per game (85.7) and 10th in expected points added per pass (+0.19). Each mark counted as the best in O’Connell’s three seasons, and the EPA was a dramatic jump from +0.04 in ‘22-’23.

Individually, Darnold clipped 70.7% of passes that were accompanied by a fake handoff versus 64.6% of non-play-action attempts. His EPA on the former was +29.6. In 2023, Kirk Cousins compiled a play-action EPA of +0.9; he was far better in 2022 (+5.8), granted Darnold raised the Vikings system to a new height.

3. Deep connections

Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold decorated his résumé with the top completion percentage (46.7%), the second-most yards per attempt (17.1) and No. 3 passer rating on deep throws (111.8) – only First-Team All-Pro and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson (125.2), and Justin Herbert (113.9) fared better. Also, Darnold had a league-leading EPA of +47.6; that’s 12.3 points higher than Jackson, the No. 2 deep passer.

2 Improvable Offensive Stats:

1. Pressure rate

Darnold was under pressure on 39.4 percent of dropacks in his seventh season and first in Minnesota. Only second-year QBs Will Levis (39.7%) and Anthony Richardson (40.8%) were more hamstrung by recurrent duress. In total, Darnold was pressured on 245 dropbacks – NGS defines a pressure as “any dropback where a defender gets within 2 yards of the QB at pass forward or within 1.5 yards of the QB at any point before the QB throws the ball” – which was second most to Bears rookie Caleb Williams (260).

The impetus of allowed pressure is complex and relates to a multitude of factors, such as play design, quickness going through progressions and stability along the offensive line. Sometimes, it’s contingent on a defender’s get-off or schematic advantage like an unaccounted pass rusher. But one cause was blatant as the year progressed: Darnold’s time to throw was 3.08 seconds, more than a quarter of a second longer than NFL average (2.75) and notably longer than Cousins in 2022 (2.83) and 2023 (2.86).

Darnold averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt (tied for fifth most in the NFL), meaning many routes required an extra tick and hitch in the pocket, although not ideally as long as he averaged. For comparison’s sake, the two other players that lived above 3.00 seconds were Jackson and Jalen Hurts; they’re both legitimate dual-threats and therefore habitual play extenders and on-the-move throwers.

Ultimately, Minnesota’s saving grace might’ve been Darnold’s understated ability to overcome pressure.

He twirled a league-high 1,279 yards in such situations; his 13 TDs under pressure tied Burrow for the NFL lead, and his 89.6 passer rating was sixth overall and comparable to Jackson’s superior mark of 96.4.

For more clarity on Darnold’s pressure-cooking antics, consider this list of QBs to toss 13 or more touchdowns against pressure since Darnold’s rookie year: Patrick Mahomes tallied 16 in 2018; Josh Allen and Russell Wilson had 13 in 2020 when Justin Herbert ledgered 14, and Allen logged 13 again in 2022.

2. Explosive rushes

In 16 contests, Saquon Barkley spun, backwards-hurdled a man and gashed defenses for 46 runs of 10-plus yards. In 17 games, human locomotive Derrick Henry had 45, and lightning bolt Jahmyr Gibbs 41.

Jones ranked 19th, trailing 16 running backs and two quarterbacks, with 25 rushes of 10-plus yards. Midseason addition Cam Akers contributed 12, while Darnold netted nine (14th among QBs) and Ty Chandler contributed three for a total of 49. It edged Barkley’s one-man, cinematic production by three.

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6 safeties the Minnesota Vikings could target in free agency this year

Jevon Holland, Dolphins

Last offseason, the Vikings signed Andrew Van Ginkel, an ex-Dolphin who used to play for Flores. That worked out pretty nicely. Could they add another this year? Holland was Miami’s second-round pick in 2021, Flores’ final year as their head coach. He burst onto the scene with an outstanding rookie season that included two interceptions, ten passes defended, and 2.5 sacks. Holland followed that up with a good second season and then graded as one of the best safeties in football (by PFF) in 2023. He’s coming off a slightly down year, but Holland is a great athlete who can do everything you want from a No. 1 safety. He turns 25 next month, so he fits the Vikings’ timeline perfectly. Holland won’t be cheap (likely $16-18 million per year), but he’s a stud who would form quite the duo with Metellus.

Justin Reid, Chiefs

Talanoa Hufanga, 49ers

Camryn Bynum, Vikings

Julian Blackmon, Colts

Andre Cisco, Jaguars

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