Rams need to be smart and avoid extending Kyren Williams during offseason

Should the Rams give Kyren Williams an extension?

Over the next year, there will be a lot of discussion on whether or not the Los Angeles Rams should extend running back Kyren Williams. While I still have your attention in the early parts of this column, I’ll preface this by saying that there is no denying Williams’ impact in the Rams offense. The question here is whether or not his impact is circumstantial and if he is a running back worth giving an extension.

That’s especially the case after the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens had so much success paying Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Running the ball has become more important over the last few seasons. The top seven teams in rushing EPA made the playoffs as did eight of the top ten teams in success rate. Six of the top eight running backs who led the NFL in rushing EPA per attempt were on teams that made the playoffs. The same can be said about six of the top-10 running backs in success rate.

Still, is that more about the individual running backs or the rushing ecosystems themselves? It’s no secret that the running back position is heavily dependent on the offensive line and the scheme that they are inserted into. It’s how Barkley can go from averaging less than four yards per carry in two of his last three years with the New York Giants and then be the Offensive Player of the Year with the Eagles. Barkley has also been able to take the Eagles rushing attack that was already very good to new heights.

Over the past decade, there has been a “running backs don’t matter” movement. Essentially, that refers to an argument that the running back position is less valuable than others in the modern NFL. With an increased emphasis on passing in combination with the importance of a strong offensive line, the position is less valuable and too dependent on exterior factors. There’s also a much higher injury rate and shorter “prime” at the position which the Rams experienced with Todd Gurley. If a team can build a strong ecosystem, they can often find success with a less-star caliber running back. Five of the top ten running backs in success rate were drafted on day three or later. One of those five is Williams.

There haven’t been reasons to pay a running back big money ever since the Gurley contract failed as almost a warning to NFL executives. It’s why the Giants didn’t give a blank check to Barkley. While they could have used an explosive play-maker, there was little chance that Barkley would have moved the needle when it comes to the success of that team. Every year running backs are found late in the draft. Tyrone Tracy was one of them.

As Mike Tanier wrote on the Too Deep Zone substack,

“The Running Backs Don’t Matter movement was always silly and shrill, a bumper-sticker conclusion drawn from some irrefutable-but-subtle analytical facts. Running backs have always been a delicious part of a balanced breakfast, even if they are the Count Chocula and not the eggs or grapefruit. To add a banal observation: running backs are more useful as value boosters for well-built contenders than they can ever be as brute-force laborers for bad teams.”

The Rams won the Super Bowl with an absent running game. Sony Michel made $1.7-million with the Rams in 2021 as he led the offense in rushing yards. Very few would say he was a valuable piece of the offense. While Michel had success, his impact was more about being a player that kept the offense on track rather hindering it.

Ever since the Rams paid Gurley, they have followed the same model at the running back position. Following Gurley’s injury, they drafted Henderson in the third round and then Cam Akers the next year in the second. Two years later they drafted Williams and then two years after that they selected Blake Corum. They have kept a steady flow of running backs on the roster that are on rookie contracts.

The Rams haven’t had a reason to pay a running back since Gurley. However, their actions also speak to a model that they aren’t going to pay a running back. With that said, Rams general manager Les Snead said during his post-season press conference,

“I think that’s something that’s going to be on the plate. He would be someone that after three years you could begin discussing, let’s call it, renegotiating, starting anew. Because I do think Kyren is someone who is a Ram and has a very impactful role for us.”

This isn’t the first time that Rams brass have used the phrase or something along the lines of “someone who is a Ram.” Just last year when discussing Ernest Jones, McVay said, “He is a mentally and physically tough guy and he’s checking all the boxes for what we’re looking for in a Ram.” Snead added, “He’s definitely someone we’ll discuss and someone we’d like to have around.”

Fast forward to last August and Jones was traded away for a 2026 sixth-round pick. This isn’t to say that the Rams are going to trade away Williams. It’s highly unlikely that they would do that. At the same time, it also means that the NFL is ever-changing and just because the front office says one thing doesn’t mean they’ll actually do it.

Williams has been an important piece to the offense. However, it is worth questioning if some of that success is circumstantial. Out of Williams’ 14 rushing touchdowns last season, 12 of those 14 came inside the five yard line. It’s worth mentioning that nine of those 12 touchdowns came inside the three.

For comparison, only nine of Derrick Henry’s 16 touchdowns came inside the five. James Cook scored 16 rushing touchdowns and only six of those came from inside the five yard line.

To add to that, Jahmyr Gibbs and Williams each have 26 career rushing touchdowns. Out of Gibbs’ 26 rushing touchdowns, 11 of them have been of ten or more yards. Meanwhile, only three of Williams’ 26 have been outside ten yards.

Since 2023, only two players have more carries than Williams. However, there are 21 players with more touchdowns of ten or more yards.

Again, the Rams drafted Corum because they saw a player similar to Williams. Corum rushed for 27 touchdowns during his final season at Michigan. With more opportunities, he could probably capitalize in those situations.

That’s not a negative on Williams. He’s certainly become one of the better short-yardage and goal-line running backs in the NFL. There’s a reason that the Rams had an 80 percent power success rate according to FTN Fantasy Data. Williams was a big part of that.

Still, context is needed.

That lack of explosiveness is a big reason why it’s hard to justify an extension for Williams. The Rams running back had an explosive run rate of 1.9 percent. That ranked 44th out of 46 qualified running backs.

Ian Hartitz

Williams is fine and he does a lot of things well. However, it’s fair to question whether or not he’s the all-around running back worth giving an extension to. Williams is a singles hitter and only gets what’s available. He was the only running back last season to get exactly what was expected. His rushing yards over expected per attempt was exactly zero.

The Rams finished 31st in open field yards and 26th in running back yards which gives more credit to the player carrying the ball. He ranked 37th in missed tackles forced and 40th in yard after contact.

Ian Hartitz

He also doesn’t add a lot in the passing game. Despite running a route on 58.8 percent of the team’s drop backs, Williams ranked last in targets per route run and yards per route run. His yards per target ranked 32nd out of 37 qualifying running backs and his yards per reception ranked 34th. Williams also ranked in the bottom-three in yards after contact per reception.

Williams often gets touted for his ability in pass protection. While Pro Football Focus isn’t the end-all, be-all, Williams ranked 32nd out of 37 running backs in pass-blocking and had the fifth-highest allowed pressure opportunity rate.

Here we have a running back that struggles to get more than what is blocked for him despite having a top-10 run-blocking offensive line. He doesn’t add much in the passing game and has a turnover problem. It’s fair to say that he can fix it, but it has also been an issue going back to his days at Notre Dame. That doesn’t mention that he’s missed time with injury in two of his first three years. Is that really a player worth an extension?

It obviously depends on what Williams would command and the overall structure. Chubba Hubbard recently signed a reported $33-million extension. However, only around $12-million of that was guaranteed and the Panthers can get out of it following his age 27 season with only $3-million in dead money. Jonathan Taylor signed a three year, $42-million contract extension with the Colts in 2023, but only $19.3-million of that was guaranteed. The Colts can get out of that one with only $2.6-million in dead money after his age 26 season.

The big difference with those teams is that they are also paying a rookie quarterback. Williams’ current market value is $10.4-million according to Spotrac and will likely go up as the salary cap increases. Williams is currently 24 and that current number would make him the sixth-highest paid running back.

Now we go back to the earlier point of running backs being value boosters for well-built contenders. How much value does Williams add to the current offense and is that worth $12-$14-million?

This is a Rams team that has gone away from paying the running back position since they learned a valuable lesson with Todd Gurley. If the Rams were smart, they’d continue with that approach when it comes to Kyren Williams.