Don’t help Mahomes beat you
Much has been made about the Chiefs supposed referee advantage. Most of it is nonsense.
It is true that the Chiefs are getting more calls in their favor than against them. In their nine games during their three straight Super Bowl runs, Chiefs opponents have committed 61 accepted penalties (and four that were declined), while Kansas City has had just 35 accepted penalties (and eight that were declined).
That seems like a high ratio. But is it?
Let us compare that to other teams who have made playoff runs during that time: AFCCG opponents the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals, and SB opponents Eagles and 49ers. For this we will not count their games against the Chiefs (which for the Chiefs is just 3 games). I will also count for the Bengals their game against the Ravens in 2022 but not count that for the Ravens because Lamar Jackson did not play. The point here is to see what penalty rates for these teams and their star QBs are.
The Chiefs penalty ratio is high, but not hugely so. Is Lamar Jackson getting calls? Maybe. (The Eagles high rate of penalties drawn is from the Brotherly Shove.) Worth noting that when KC is penalized, it is for more yardage, 8.4 yards per penalty to 8.2.
If we focus just on games where the Bills, Ravens, Bengals, 49ers, and Eagles play the Chiefs, we find the same penalty ratio: 6.7 penalties per game for the Chiefs opponent, 3.8 for the Chiefs.
Star players getting calls that others don’t will always be a problem in any sport. But the Chiefs high rate of opposition penalties isn’t because of Mahomes. Over half of the penalties committed by the Chiefs opponents, 32 of 61, were when Patrick Mahomes was not on the field.
While Mahomes’ ability to draw flags on his slides is infuriating, the bigger culprit of the Chiefs penalty advantage has been when the other team’s QB is on the field. This isn’t anything special by the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes isn’t causing the other team’s offensive linemen to hold.
This is a case of don’t beat yourself. Other teams are. In Patrick Mahomes’ four Super Bowls the winning team has committed the fewer penalties three times–including his loss to Tampa–with the fourth a tie. In his six AFCCG, the winning team committed the fewer penalties four times.
If you want to beat Patrick Mahomes, don’t help him out by beating yourself.
