• Buffalo’s path to victory may be on the ground: The Bills‘ run game has flourished in the playoffs, courtesy of one small adjustment.
• Can Jalen Hurts get back on track via play action? The Eagles deployed a season-high rate of play action against Washington in Week 11, and it could alleviate passing-game issues.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head or defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.

Last week’s focus on Saquon Barkley after contact (6.54 yards per carry) and the Lions running Cover 2 (only seven plays) were major influences in deciding the final four teams standing in the NFL. With both the AFC and NFC Championship games serving as regular-season rematches, these teams will be even more in tune with their year-long tendencies — and find ways to throw curveballs.

Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are four matchups to pay close attention to in the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Bills’ run game vs. Chiefs‘ run defense

In their two postseason matchups, the Bills have lined up against two of the NFL’s more imposing defenses in the Broncos and Ravens. The results have been very favorable, which is a testament to Joe Brady — particularly, his focus on the run game.

Buffalo has generated 0.117 expected points added per play, a 44.9% success rate and 26 rushing first downs across the two outings, all top-three marks among the 14 teams to qualify. Meanwhile, in the regular season, the Bills were still a strong running team, but their 0.024 EPA per play and 35.1% success rate are still markedly below where they are now. So, what’s changed?

Buffalo’s run game has remained extraordinarily diverse, much like its broader offense, but Brady tweaked it and implemented more power runs (i.e., pulling offensive linemen, especially tackles like Dion Dawkins). Consider Buffalo’s run design splits in the regular season compared to the postseason:

On power runs in the playoffs, five Bills comprise the top 11 players in PFF run-blocking grade, headlined by Dawkins’ 74.4 mark — the highest among any offensive lineman. Along those lines, the entire Bills team has elevated its run blocking in January, reflected by its jump from a team 64.5 PFF run-blocking grade to a 72.2 run-blocking mark.

On the other side of the line of scrimmage sits a Chiefs defense that’s been slightly above average against the run. Kansas City sits 13th in rushing EPA allowed per play, 17th in success rate allowed and 11th in rushing yards allowed per carry. What could deter Buffalo is that the Chiefs own the fifth-best team PFF run-defense grade against power (77.4) and the fourth-best figure against outside zone (67.1) but are only 22nd against man (61.6).

The bottom line is this: If Buffalo can continue to establish the run with both Josh Allen and James Cook, then it has a real shot of beating Kansas City and reaching the Super Bowl. But if the Bills’ run game gets stymied, then the Chiefs would theoretically have an edge with their talented secondary against Buffalo’s mediocre receiving corps.

Most Rushing Attempts in the 2024 Postseason

Jayden Daniels’ scrambles vs. Eagles

Daniels’ rookie season joined the annals of NFL history after he led Washington to an improbable NFC Championship berth. The rookie’s play when blitzed has been an otherworldly concept in and of itself, but watch out for his rushing against Philadelphia on Sunday.

All year long, Daniels has been one of the NFL’s premier scrambling quarterbacks, ranking second with a 92.9 PFF rushing grade while leading the league in missed tackles forced (32) and first downs gained (36). He has scrambled only four times in two playoff games but has secured a league-leading 90.5 PFF rushing grade with five missed tackles forced.

For as elite as the Eagles’ defense has been in 2024, scramble defense hasn’t been a particular forte. Philadelphia sits 22nd in EPA per play, 15th in success rate, 15th in yards per play and 23rd in missed tackles when quarterbacks take off.

When these two rivals met, Daniels’ scrambles certainly helped dictate the game result. In Week 11, he scrambled only four times for 15 yards, claiming one first down and zero missed tackles in the process. But in Week 16, the rookie got the better of Vic Fangio’s unit with six scrambles for 50 yards, five missed tackles forced and two first downs.

With Commanders right guard Samuel Cosmi (torn ACL) out, Daniels’ ability to slither away from pressure — likely coming from the trio of Jalen Carter, Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo — will play a massive role in how well Washington’s offense can keep pace.

Patrick Mahomes under pressure vs. Bills

Mahomes has displayed no signs of ending his reign of playoff dominance. But the potential four-time Lombardi Trophy winner will have to play better under duress than he did against Buffalo earlier this year.

When the Chiefs ventured to Western New York in Week 11, Mahomes went only 4-of-11 passing under pressure, registering a 44.4 PFF passing grade and a 13.3% turnover-worthy play rate — both of which were season lows. Buffalo was able to disrupt Mahomes with Greg Rousseau (six pressures) getting home and pairing that with tight coverage, forcing the two-time MVP to hold onto the ball for an average of 3.13 seconds — his highest all year.

However, Mahomes was definitely better under pressure against the Texans in the divisional round. Last week, he completed 6-of-9 passes for 44 yards, a 69.0 PFF passing grade, a 20% big-time throw rate and a 6.3% turnover-worthy play rate when Houston got home. Those numbers are more in line with what he’s done all year, as Mahomes’ 65.0 PFF passing grade under pressure ranks third in the league. The same goes for last year’s Chiefs-Bills divisional matchup, when Mahomes was surgical in that department (5-of-7, 73 yards, 83.7 PFF passing grade, zero turnover-worthy plays).

How well Kansas City’s updated offensive line holds up against Rousseau will be critical, but so too will Mahomes’ performance with defenders in his lap. If the game’s best can remain accurate and turnover-free under pressure, then the Chiefs should be able to get to a third straight Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts on play action vs. Commanders

The Eagles’ biggest worry revolves around Hurts, who could have an entirely separate article devoted to his play under pressure. How well he does on play action against a subpar Washington defense is also worth following.

When Hurts and the Eagles beat the Commanders in Week 11, play action was the team’s tried-and-true method. While utilizing the concept on 41.2% of dropbacks, easily a season high, Hurts went 9-of-12 for 113 yards, zero turnover-worthy plays and a 100% adjusted completion percentage. His 84.1 PFF passing grade on play action was substantially higher than on non-play action dropbacks (49.2), which reflects his disparate splits.

When opposing offenses run play action this year, the Commanders have been about average. Washington ranks 14th in EPA per play, 26th in success rate, 16th in average yards per play and 17th in team PFF coverage grade. The team’s numbers haven’t been much better against play action in the postseason, although Jared Goff completed only 5-of-8 play-action attempts on a smaller usage rate in the divisional round.

When Hurts played only 12 snaps in Landover, Maryland, in Week 16, Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was more hesitant to deploy play action, running it just 20% of the time with Kenny Pickett — who generated a measly 50.6 PFF passing grade on such plays. With Hurts back under center in the trilogy of this series, the Commanders will need to hold up better against fake handoffs if they want to shock the world for a third time.