Eagles-Commanders Film Preview: This could be a huge A.J. Brown game

I’m not the biggest fan of Eagles game previews, mainly because I don’t have the time to watch even more film during the season. However, this is an easy one, because I’ve watched a ton of Washington Commanders film this year!

I struggle with previews because there’s too much to talk about. I could go on forever. So, I won’t break this down into strengths and weaknesses. I’m just going to give a bunch of thoughts about Washington after watching as much film as possible and looking at the stats. I use a bunch of stats in this one, and credit goes to Team Rankings, PFF, and Sports Info Solutions. Lastly, my podcast co-host @ShaneHaffNFL is responsible for putting some of the graphics together in this one. I’ll use some film from the Eagle’s previous matchups, too. Let’s go!

Eagles Offense vs. Washington Defense

• There is only one place to start this preview. The Washington defense is not very good against the run. Washington gave up 139 rushing yards per game (30th) at 4.9 yards per carry (30th). In the two games vs. Washington this year, Saquon Barkley has 55 carries for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns. Is that good? This should be a game where the Eagles have success running the football.
• Washington’s defensive line is aggressive and gets up the field quickly. The Eagles took advantage of this last time the two teams met and ran some trap plays (such as Crunch) that we haven’t seen the Eagles run very often. I expect to see some more of these runs if the Washington’ defense continues to get up the field quickly.

• Look how aggressive the Washington’ defensive line is here. You can take advantage of this if you get to the second level. They play a 1-gap style a lot of the time, and if they are not extremely gap-sound, they can be susceptible to explosive runs.

• However, it is fair to point out that outside of the explosive runs the Eagles didn’t run the ball well against Washington in Week 16. However, Jalen Hurts didn’t play! He has a huge impact on the run game, even if he isn’t fully healthy. Another one of the reasons why the Eagles struggled to run the football in Week 16 was the play of the Eagles’ tight ends. Luckily, Dallas Goedert is playing this time (unless this new ankle injury keeps him out?)! I expect the Eagles to be able to run the ball well.

• When Kenny Pickett came into the lineup, Washington stacked the box, and the Eagles struggled to run the football. I would expect Washington to stack the box and dare the Eagles to throw it. This could be a ‘single-high let it fly’ game for the offense. However, Washington has done a good job in the two matchups, taking away deep shots by playing with off-coverage.
• The Washington’ pass defense is average, but they do some nice schematic things. They aren’t afraid of blitzing linebackers and often rotate their safeties. I would be pretty happy if Washington decides to blitz this Eagles’ offense because they usually have good answers against pressure (imagine saying that last year).

• This could be a huge AJ Brown game. This Washington defense is not afraid to play man coverage, and they trusted Marshon Lattimore to cover AJ Brown in one-on-one coverage the last time these teams met. AJ Brown dominated Lattimore. The numbers don’t look incredible due to the number of pass interference penalties, but if Washington wants to play this way again, then I look forward to it. Lattimore did play very well against the Detroit Lions, but I still fancy AJ Brown in this one. As long as he is healthy, that is!

• You can see that they blitz and play a lot of man coverage, here.

• In terms of individuals, keep an eye on Frankie Luvu. He’s an aggressive linebacker and will probably try to hit Jalen Hurts… again. I find him to be a little overaggressive (some would say dirty…), but he is a good football player.
• The rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil is a good player, too. He can play inside and outside and has a knack for finding the football. He will probably see a lot of DeVonta Smith, and while he is a talented cornerback, I expect DeVonta to win that matchup.
• Washington has some very talented players upfront, too. Daron Payne is an explosive athlete who can get after the quarterback, but his aggressive style means he can be caught out in the run game. Jonathan Allen is outstanding,g but he hasn’t been able to save Washington’s poor run defense this year.

Washington Offense vs. Eagles Defense

• The Eagles’ defense gave up 5 touchdowns to Jayden Daniels in week 16. Washington’s game plan was outstanding, and the Eagles’ defense struggled massively. Washington’s route concepts challenged the Eagles’ route distribution and communication, and the Eagles couldn’t handle it. I was impressed with the game that Kliff Kingsbury called.

• One of the reasons why the Eagles’ defense struggled against Washington was due to the multiplicity of their offense. They do so many things well because Jayden Daniels is outstanding. Daniels has a fantastic arm and throws with great anticipation and timing for a rookie. He can hit intermediate routes in the middle of the field as well as down-the-field concepts. They run a lot of of RPO’s and screen passes (you need to be prepared for passes behind the LOS) but still manage to stress a defense both horizinallty and vertically. This is a tough passing game to defend, led by Terry McLaurin.

• In addition to this, the Eagles struggled with Washington’s vertical downfield concepts in week 16. Washington is not afraid to throw it deep and stretch a defense vertically. These down-the-field routes also create a lot of space in the intermediate area.
• Despite giving up 5th touchdowns, Vic Fangio dominated the Washington offense early on in week 16. Jayden Daniels is great, but he’s a rookie. You can absolutely confuse him with some disguised coverages and multiple fronts. Fangio was very multiple this week against the Rams, and I expect him to be the same in this one.

• Something that is not easy to see from the All22 is the hurry-up that Washington plays. Washington leads the lead with 60.4% hurry-up. The next highest team is at 24.5% That is pretty insane. Washington does this to try and keep the defense in favorable personnel and simplify defensive calls. The Eagles need to make sure they are prepared for this.
• Washington will run a lot of empty formations ,too. These can be tough to defend as you have to be prepared for the threat of Jayden Daniels taking off. Jayden Daniels will run. A lot. Jayden Daniels had a few injuries in the regular season and Washington tried to limit his rushing attempts. They will not limit it this week! I expect Daniels to scramble a lot.
• Watch out for Eagles’ legend Zach Ertz in the red zone. He is still outstanding at using his body to create separation and provide Daniels with a throwing window. There are not many better receivers at winning in the red zone.
• The Eagles’ defense shut down Washington’s run game last time out, but I’m not sure it will be as easy this week. Washington ran the ball effectively vs. the Detroit Lions, and it’s a very multiple-run game due to Jayden Daniels. You will see a lot of zone read, counter read, and QB sweep. Luckily for the Eagles, Washington’s guard Sam Cosmi is injured this week and will be a big miss. Jalen Carter might blow up a lot of runs.
• Washington plays a lot of Pony personnel (2 running backs), and Austin Ekeler is still a weapon in the passing game. Washington throws a lot of short balls to the flat, and the Eagles will have to rally and tackle well. Ekeler had 8 receptions for 89 yards when these teams met for the 1st time this season.

• The run game numbers are sort of weird. They rank 1st in zone run success rate (which doesn’t surprise me), but they run a lot of gap scheme. Similarly, they don’t often run into stacked boxes, but they do it well!

Overall

If you look at the statistics, the Eagles are the better team. The Eagles have been the better team all season long. But this Washington team is hitting their stride in the playoffs. Their offense is playing exceptionally well. The Eagles’ defense is fantastic, but I expect Washington to have some success on offense. This is the week where the Eagles need the offense to step up and score 30+ points. The Eagles’ offense can do it, but it will be a close one. A lot may come down to the health and mobility of Jalen Hurts. I still fancy the Eagles to get the win at home!

Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here.