The former Lions offensive coordinator is now head coach of the Chicago Bears. How long will his tenure last?
After three years of speculation, the inevitable has happened: Ben Johnson has left the Detroit Lions to be a head coach elsewhere. Of course, the location of “elsewhere” is a non-trivial consideration here. Johnson left for a division rival in the Chicago Bears, leading to a lot of discourse about how big that rivalry will be in 2025 and beyond. How long that lasts is dependent on how well Johnson fares, which brings us to today’s Question of the Day.
Question of the Day: How long will Ben Johnson last as head coach of the Chicago Bears?
For starters, I think Johnson will have a longer leash than most rookie head coaches. He was specific in years past about wanting stability for his family, so it’s likely his contract will be a longer one, insofar as rookie head coaching contracts go. Similarly, he’s a coveted candidate. Johnson was negotiating from a position of greater leverage, after having shown he’s willing to turn down an opportunity to stay in Detroit. All things considered, that means he’s going to have a runway of at least three seasons, even if things go poorly.
Speaking of things going poorly, I don’t think they will. Johnson is inheriting Caleb Williams after having a year (and two in-person games) to assess the rookie quarterback. Williams showed a lot of promise in his ability to process the game at the professional level, and I think Ben Johnson will have a lot to work with. Quarterback is the most important piece of the puzzle, and when you team up Williams with Johnson I think that piece is solved.
However, as many have pointed out already, the success of Ben Johnson’s offense begins and ends with good blocking. That’s one thing the Bears certainly do not have as it stands right now. They’ll have to address the offensive line if they ultimately want Chicago’s offense to be even close to what we’ve had in Detroit.
The man behind that job? Bears general manager Ryan Poles. He’s now on his second head coach, and you don’t get more than two of those in the NFL. I have a lot of faith in Ben Johnson, but very little in Poles. As such, I’m not holding my breath for Poles to get Ben Johnson the talent he needs to surround Williams and build out the vision of the offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if a year or two in, Poles is fired and Ben Johnson is involved in the search for a new general manager.
Then there’s the consideration of where Johnson is coaching: arguably the best division in the NFL in 2024, with no signs of that changing. The NFC North featured the two leading candidates for Coach of the Year, in addition to a Matt LaFleur who somehow milked 11 wins out of Jordan Love. I don’t foresee the division getting much easier. In the best case for Johnson, it becomes akin to the AFC North or NFC West of the 2010s, where two to three contenders emerge from a slugfest every year.
My answer: I have a lot of faith in Johnson as a head coach. I have a lot less faith in the Bears organization, especially as long as it’s led by Poles and stacked up against the rest of the NFC North. I would set the over/under for Johnson’s tenure as Bears HC at three seasons, and I’ll just slightly take the over, betting that he at least makes it into year four with a new GM. If that GM is a good one, then perhaps he sticks around. But the odds are stacked against him as a rookie head coach entering a dysfunctional organization.
How long do you think Ben Johnson will last as the head coach of the Bears? Vote below and let us know your thoughts:
