Fantasy Football ‘24: Sleepers review

A look back at the preseason diamonds in the rough

With Conference Championship Sunday almost upon us, I decided to go back and take one last look at the 2024 fantasy football season. Let’s just say that over the past weekend of wall-to-wall football, watching Ray Davis score a rushing TD (with James Cook getting a breather) got my attention, and so did Jameson Williams throwing an interception on a trick play gone awry. Don’t get me wrong – I loved watching all four games this past weekend and I continue to think that the Divisional Round is the NFL’s best weekend of the year. I just can’t shake the fantasy lens from my glasses. That Jameson pick was a minus-2 for somebody…

I’ve already given my 2024 fantasy takeaways. I’ve also looked back at how my preseason prognostications fared. These were my 2024 not-so-bold fantasy predictions (I won’t revisit them; some were good, some were a lot less than good, but it’s fun to go back and read them). There’s one final piece I want to revisit. In August, I wrote a sleepers column that tried to identify some lower-ranked players that could be great values in the double-digit rounds of drafts. So how did I do? Well, I honestly don’t remember. The NFL season is long, folks. Half of the reason I’m writing this column is to jog my own memory. But also, I want to revisit my thought process, and take notes on the types of players that surprised us this year. Maybe there’s something valuable to learn something for next season.

The late rounds of fantasy drafts are important. I’ll almost always wait until the last two rounds to grab my D/ST and kicker. That helps me maximize my late-round swings at players with upside who could, if things break right, be meaningful contributors on my roster (and not just for a week or two when other players are injured or on a Bye). These are players you aren’t spending a lot of draft capital on, and most of them will invariably end up being bench depth (including a handcuff or two if you go that route), or eventual waiver drops. That’s to be expected. But if none of them pop and they ALL end up in those buckets, you’ll be at a disadvantage vs. those managers who unearthed great value at the end of your draft. This isn’t an absolute, but you usually need to hit on a sleeper or two to win your league.

When I use the word sleeper, I mean it, and the rankings cutoffs for inclusion in my column were pretty low. Players like Baker Mayfield, Chase Brown, Zach Charbonnet, Brian Thomas, Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Ladd McConkey, and Jameson Williams were all too highly-ranked to qualify for my column, just to give you an idea.

As you’d expect I missed more than I hit, but I did include a number of players that blossomed into weekly starters. Let’s take a look.

Quarterback

I mostly whiffed on sleepers here, and given the quality depth at the position, finding sleepers really only matters in 2-QB leagues and Superflex formats (were you can start a second quarterback in a Flex spot). Will Levis, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields were notable misses, but with all three I loved the potential upside since they’re all good runners, and they were dirt cheap. The one who hit big was Sam Darnold, who finished as a Top-10 quarterback on a fantasy points per game basis. Darnold was basically free in drafts. The case for him was the supporting cast and coaching staff in Minnesota, which ended up being a perfect stage for him to resurrect his career (the last two games notwithstanding). It’s going to be a while before we know what the Vikings’ QB situation, and Darnold’s home, is going to be next season.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Running Back

I’ve said it many times before, but I’ll say it again, in case any of you are new here: I like to hammer the running back position late in drafts, because in most seasons lots of RBs get hurt plus a few more get replaced as starters. As each NFL season grinds on, it’s common for multiple backup running backs to emerge as weekly starters who give you solid production. This year, starting running backs stayed remarkably healthy and productive (as a whole), and that didn’t happen. I recommended a lot of backups in my sleepers column and most of them ended up just being handcuffs and bench depth, or worse, droppable. Still, I listed Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, and Rico Dowdle, who all were great values in 2024. Despite the 2024 results, I won’t change this strategy for next season, as I think this past season was an aberration, in terms of how few RBs outside of the Top-25 or so in the preseason ranks were fantasy-relevant. I didn’t list Bucky Irving, so that’s a notable miss on my part.

Wide Receiver

It was an unusual season at the receiver position. Early-round receivers were a big fail, as a group. Injuries at the position were rampant, and many of those who didn’t get hurt simply underperformed. Hello, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, D.K. Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, and many more. Like many, I missed with a lot of my early-round receiver predictions. If you went wide receiver-heavy early, you probably had a long season.

I did quite well with middle and later-round WR picks, including sleepers. Brian Thomas, Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ladd McConkey, and Jameson Williams were all ranked too high for me to consider them as sleepers, but I listed all four in my preseason columns as players I was targeting in the Round 8-11 range. In terms of actual sleepers, I had a few more notable hits here: Darnell Mooney and Khalil Shakir. Receiver should again be deep next season, with a lot of good value in the middle to later rounds of drafts.

Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images

Tight End

I missed on most of my tight end sleepers, as few players arose from the depths at the position. Two of my choices were big hits, but not at the same time. If you drafted Taysom Hill late, and then picked up Jonnu Smith on waivers a little before Halloween, you would have ended up with the TE1 for the full season. The tight end position disappointed in general in 2024, after a pretty promising showing in 2023. I think we’ll continue to see inconsistent production from many of those ranked in the Top-12 at the position (TE 1s) going forward, although Brock Bowers and Trey McBride look like the next generation of stud TEs that you can trust on a week-to-week basis.

That’s a wrap on 2024! Coming next, I’ll start to take a way-too-early early look at fantasy rankings for 2025. Enjoy the rest of the NFL playoffs.