Exposing a Colts Draft Leak, Part 2: Identifying draft targets by round

Welcome to the first article in the series that gets us to the 2025 Chris Ballard NFL Draft Leak. An unofficial Indianapolis Colts annual tradition. Compiling the draft leak article is a labor of love but it’s a process I realized I could do a better job documenting. Normally I just compile pages and pages of notes leading up to creating THE List, but this year these articles will be my guide to creating the most well researched and well reasoned draft leak article of all time. If you want a refresher on the Colts observable draft process, which might help you understand how this article and the other articles in this series relate to the draft, you can brush up on that process byrereading the 2024 Draft Leak article, I didn’t hit on any names last year but the overarching process will remain the same. Last time we identified the Colts 2025 positions of need, which you can read here. Today we’re going to identify draftable targets at the Colts positions of need by round.

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Overview

This exercise is by far the most difficult part of the draft prediction game. People who do this year round struggle to predict what round some players will be drafted in. Sometimes it’s an issue with a players medical exams, sometimes it’s unknown off the field, character concerns, sometimes the NFL just doesn’t like a guy the way the online draft community does. So this part of the process is less concrete and I’ve found it’s best to outsource this as much as I can. If I watch a prospect, I feel confident in my ability to tell you what area of the draft I think he’ll be taken, but I also know that I’m probably more confident than I should be. The bottom line is that when it comes to the draft consensus boards almost always end up being the most accurate way to identify draftable prospects and to some degree their position in the draft. Ultimately it’s not that I’m worse at this than others (I probably am, tough to say) but nobody is as good as an examination of the collective rankings.

As the day draws nearer and nearer, there will be quite a bit of movement in these rankings and it will be interesting to track them as time goes on. Eventually, I will compare multiple sources, including Lance Zierlein, who does great work each and every year. I don’t always agree with Lance but for this exercise that’s a good thing. For now, I’m going to be using the PFF Mock Draft Simulator. I like PFF’s simulator if for no other reason than the fact that Trevor Sikkema plays a large part in it’s player database. Sikkema is another person who does great work forecasting the draft every year. This isn’t something I’ll use a couple months from now, A couple of months from now I’ll have measurements and testing numbers for most prospects and I’ll focus my search much more on those players that fit. But for now this is as good of a way as any to determine who might be available each time the Colts are on the clock. I will run a total of 10, seven round mock drafts and list the available players at each position and how often they were available. I was going to run 10, I realized after I ran two that the results were unlikely to change significantly from draft to draft, I ran a third (without recording the results), mostly just to see if the names changed significantly in the first couple of rounds and they really didn’t, not to a great enough degree to continue the slog that was running draft simulations and recording the results in every round as if it were the real thing. I have listed the results by position and round below. I have listed the top five available players at each position (according to PFF), in each round. There is a percentage listed after each player. That percentage denotes how many times that player was available in that round as one of the five best at his position. For example you’ll notice in the Quarterback section, in the fifth round, there are six players listed. Quinn Ewers is listed as #1 and appearing 50% of the time. Jaxon Dart is listed as #6 and appearing 50% of the time. In one draft Ewers was taken in the fourth round, in one draft he was available in the fifth. That means that in one draft Jaxon Dart was the fifth best player at his position, and in the other (the one Ewers slid down the board) he was not. Many of them are that easy to understand but there are a few logic puzzles in those numbers for anyone super bored at work to figure out.

And again, this isn’t going to be accurate. There are inevitably names I list as being an option on day three that go on day two and there will probably be some day two guys who work their way into day one and vice versa. There are probably guys on this list who go back to school and guys who declare who aren’t on this list. It’s really, really early. This is an early look meant to establish a baseline of names to monitor going forward, if we get a feel for where some of these guys might go and they’re consistently mentioned around the same area of the draft, well that’s as good of an estimate as we can get as April draws nearer.

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Team Needs

QB, TE, T, G, C, DL, LB, CB, S

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Quarterback

• First Round

1. Dillon Gabriel- Oregon 100%

2. Jalen Milroe- Alabama 100%

3. Will Howard- Ohio State 100%

4. Riley Leonard- Notre Dame 100%

5. Quinn Ewers- Texas 100%

• Second Round

1. Dillon Gabriel- Oregon 100%

2. Jalen Milroe- Alabama 100%

3. Will Howard- Ohio State 100%

4. Riley Leonard- Notre Dame 100%

5. Quinn Ewers- Texas 100%

• Third Round

1. Jalen Milroe- Alabama 100%

2. Will Howard- Ohio State 100%

3. Riley Leonard- Notre Dame 100%

4. Quinn Ewers- Texas 100%

5. Kyle McCord- Syracuse 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Quinn Ewers- Texas 100%

2. Kyle McCord- Syracuse 100%

3. Kurtis Rourke- Indiana 100%

4. Max Brosmer- Minnesota 100%

5. Tyler Shough- Louisville 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Quinn Ewers- Texas 50%

2. Kurtis Rourke- Indiana 100%

3. Max Brosmer- Minnesota 100%

4. Tyler Shough- Louisville 100%

5. Graham Mertz- Florida 100%

6. Jaxson Dart- Ole Miss 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Max Brosmer- Minnesota 50%

2. Tyler Shough- Louisville 100%

3. Graham Mertz- Florida 100%

4. Jaxon Dart- Mississippi 100%

5. Brady Cook- Missouri 100%

6. Donovan Smith- Houston 50%

• Seventh Round

1. Tyler Shough- Louisville 50%

2. Graham Mertz- Florida 100%

3. Jaxon Dart- Mississippi 100%

4. Brady Cook- Missouri 100%

5. Donovan Smith- Houston 100%

6. KJ Jefferson- UCF 50%

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Tight End

• First Round

1. Tyler Warren- Penn State 100%

2. Colston Loveland- Michigan 100%

3. Gunnar Helm- Texas 100%

4. Mason Taylor- LSU 100%

5. Harold Fannin Jr.- Bowling Green 100%

• Second Round

1. Gunnar Helm- Texas 100%

2. Mason Taylor- LSU 100%

3. Harold Fannin Jr.- Bowling Green 100%

4. Benjamin Yurosek- Georgia 100%

5. Jackson Hawes- Georgia Tech 100%

• Third Round

1. Harold Fannin Jr.- Bowling Green 100%

2. Benjamin Yurosek- Georgia 100%

3. Jackson Hawes- Georgia Tech 100%

4. Oronde Gadsden II- Syracuse 100%

5. Terrance Ferguson- Oregon 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Benjamin Yurosek- Georgia 100%

2. Jackson Hawes- Georgia Tech 100%

3. Oronde Gadsden II- Syracuse 100%

4. Terrance Ferguson- Oregon 100%

5. Jake Briningstool- Clemson 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Terrance Ferguson- Oregon 50%

2. Jake Briningstool- Clemson 100%

3. Luke Lachey- Iowa 100%

4. Oscar Delp- Georgia 100%

5. Mitchell Evans- Notre Dame 100%

6. Brant Kuithe- Utah 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Luke Lachey- Iowa 50%

2. Oscar Delp- Georgia 100%

3. Mitchell Evans- Notre Dame 100%

4. Brant Kuithe- Utah 100%

5. Bryson Nesbit- North Carolina 100%

6. Caden Prieskorn- Ole Miss 50%

• Seventh Round

1. Brant Kuithe- Utah 100%

2. Bryson Nesbit- North Carolina 100%

3. Caden Prieskorn- Mississippi 100%

4. Rivaldo Fairweather- Auburn 100%

5. N/A

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Tackle

• First Round

1. Kelvin Banks Jr.- Texas 100%

2. Armand Membou- Missouri 100%

3. Josh Conerly Jr.- Oregon 100%

4. Wyatt Milium- West Virginia 100%

5. Grey Zabel- North Dakota State 100%

• Second Round

1. Cameron Williams- Texas 100%

2. Ozzy Trapilo- Boston College 100%

3. Aireontae Ersery- Minnesota 100%

4. Jonah Savaiinaea- Arizona 100%

5. Marcus Mbow- Purdue 100%

• Third Round

1. Donovan Jackson- Ohio State 100%

2. Brandon Crenchsaw-Dickson- Florida 100%

3. Chase Lundt- Connecticut 100%

4. Ajani Cornelius- Oregon 100%

5. Emery Jones Jr.- LSU 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Chase Lundt- Connecticut 100%

2. Ajani Cornelius- Oregon 100%

3. Emery Jones Jr.- LSU 100%

4. Jack Nelson- Wisconsin 100%

5. Anthony Belton- North Carolina State 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Jack Nelson- Wisconsin 50%

2. Anthony Belton- North Carolina State 100%

3. Hollin Pierce- Rutgers 100%

4. Carson Vinson- Alabama A&M 100%

5. Jalen Rivers- Miami 100%

6. Xavier Truss- Georgia 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Anthony Belton- North Carolina State 100%

2. Hollin Pierce- Rutgers 100%

3. Carson Vinson- Alabama A&M 100%

4. Jalen Rivers- Miami 100%

5. Xavier Truss- Georgia 100%

• Seventh Round

1. Carson Vinson- Alabama A&M 50%

2. Jalen Rivers- Miami 100%

3. Xavier Truss- Georgia 100%

4. Earnest Greene III- Georgia 100%

5. N/A

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Guard

• First Round

1. Tyler Booker- Alabama 100%

2. Tate Ratledge- Georgia 100%

3. Ar’maj Reed-Adams- Texas A&M 100%

4. Connor Colby- Iowa 100%

5. Jaden Roberts- Alabama 100%

• Second Round

1. Tyler Booker- Alabama 100%

2. Tate Ratledge- Georgia 100%

3. Ar’maj Reed-Adams- Texas A&M 100%

4. Connor Colby- Iowa 100%

5. Jaden Roberts- Alabama 100%

• Third Round

1. Tate Ratledge- Georgia 100%

2. Ar’maj Reed-Adams- Texas A&M 100%

3. Connor Colby- Iowa 100%

4. Jaden Roberts- Alabama 100%

5. Luke Kandra- Cincinnati 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Connor Colby- Iowa 50%

2. Jaden Roberts- Alabama 100%

3. Luke Kandra- Cincinnati 100%

4. Tyler Cooper- Minnesota 100%

5. Miles Frazier- LSU 100%

6. Dylan Fairchild- Georgia 50%

• Fifth Round

1. Miles Frazier- LSU 100%

2. Dylan Fairchild- Georgia 100%

3. Clay Webb- Jacksonville State 100%

4. Jager Burton- Kentucky 100%

5. Joshua Gray- Oregon State 100%

• Sixth Round

1. Dylan Fairchild- Georgia 100%

2. Clay Webb- Jacksonville State 100%

3. Jager Burton- Kentucky 100%

4. Joshua Gray- Oregon State 100%

5. Nash Jones- Texas State 100%

• Seventh Round

1. Jager Burton- Kentucky 100%

2. Joshua Gray- Oregon State 100%

3. Nash Jones- Texas State 100%

4. Jack Conley- Boston College 100%

5. N/A

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Center

• First Round

1. Jonah Monheim- USC 100%

2. Seth McLaughlin- Ohio State 100%

3. Jake Majors- Texas 100%

4. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

5. N/A

• Second Round

1. Jonah Monheim- USC 100%

2. Seth McLaughlin- Ohio State 100%

3. Jake Majors- Texas 100%

4. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

5. N/A

• Third Round

1. Jonah Monheim- USC 100%

2. Seth McLaughlin- Ohio State 100%

3. Jake Majors- Texas 100%

4. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

5. N/A

• Fourth Round

1. Jonah Monheim- USC 100%

2. Seth McLaughlin- Ohio State 100%

3. Jake Majors- Texas 100%

4. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

5. N/A

• Fifth Round

1. Seth McLaughlin- Ohio State 100%

2. Jake Majors- Texas 100%

3. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

4. N/A

5. N/A

• Sixth Round

1. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

2. N/A

3. N/A

4. N/A

5. N/A

• Seventh Round

1. Cooper Mays- Tennessee 100%

2. N/A

3. N/A

4. N/A

5. N/A

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Defensive Line

• First Round

1. Kenneth Grant- Michigan 100%

2. Tyleik Williams- Ohio State 100%

3. T.J. Sanders- South Carolina 100%

4. Walter Nolen- Mississippi 100%

5. Omarr Norman-Lott- Tennessee 100%

• Second Round

1. Walter Nolen- Mississippi 50%

2. Omarr Norman-Lott- Tennessee 100%

3. Alfred Collins- Texas 100%

4. Deone Walker- Kentucky 100%

5. Derrick Harmon- Oregon 100%

6, Darrell Jackson Jr- Florida State 50%

• Third Round

1. Derrick Harmon- Oregon 50%

2. Darrell Jackson Jr.- Florida State 100%

3. JJ Pegues- Mississippi 100%

4. Simeon Barrow Jr.- Miami 100%

5. Shemar Turner- Texas A&M 100%

6. Rylie Mills- Notre Dame 50%

• Fourth Round

1. Shemar Turner- Texas A&M 100%

2. Rylie Mills- Notre Dame 100%

3. Aeneas Peebles- Virginia Tech 100%

4. CJ West- Indiana 100%

5. Darius Alexander- Toledo 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Rylie Mills- Notre Dame 50%

2. Aeneas Peebles- Virginia Tech 100%

3. CJ West- Indiana 100%

4. Darius Alexander- Toledo 100%

5. Cam Horsley- Boston College 100%

6. Tonka Hemmingway- South Carolina 50%

• Sixth Round

1. CJ West- Indiana 50%

2. Tonka Hemmingway- South Carolina 100%

3. Demonte Capehart- Clemson 100%

4. Howard Cross III- Notre Dame 100%

5. Thor Griffith- Louisville 100%

6. Nash Hutmacher- Nebraska 50%

• Seventh Round

1. Howard Cross III- Notre Dame 100%

2. Thor Griffith- Louisville 100%

3. Nash Hutmacher- Nebraska 100%

4. Joey Slackman- Florida 100%

5. Nazir Stackhouse- Georgia 100%

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Edge

• First Round

1. Jalon Walker- Georgia 100%

2. Mykel Williams- Georgia 100%

3. Shemar Stewart- Texas A&M 100%

4. Jack Sawyer- Ohio State 100%

5. James Pearce Jr.- Tennessee 100%

• Second Round

1. Donovan Ezeiruaku- Boston College 100%

2. Jared Ivey- Mississippi 100%

3. Tyler Baron- Miami 100%

4. Quandarrius Robinson- Alabama 100%

5. Josaiah Stewart- Michigan 100%

• Third Round

1. Tyler Baron- Miami 100%

2. Quandarrius Robinson- Alabama 100%

3. Josaiah Stewart- Michigan 100%

4. Kaimon Rucker- North Carolina 100%

5. Sai’vion Jones- LSU 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Bradyn Swinson- LSU 100%

2. Derrick Moore- Michigan 100%

3. Dani Dennis-Sutton- Penn State 100%

4. Antwaun Powell-Ryland- Virginia Tech 100%

5. Jah Joyner- Minnesota 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Bradyn Swinson- LSU 100%

2. Derrick Moore- Michigan 100%

3. Dani Dennis-Sutton- Penn State 100%

4. Antwaun Powell-Ryland- Virginia Tech 100%

5. Jah Joyner- Minnesota 100%

• Sixth Round

1. Dani Dennis-Sutton- Penn State 50%

2. Antwaun Powell-Ryland- Virginia Tech 100%

3. Jah Joyner- Minnesota 100%

4. Elijah Alston- Miami 100%

5. Joe Evans- Iowa 100%

6. Collin Oliver- Oklahoma State 50%

• Seventh Round

1. Dani Dennis-Sutton- Penn State 50%

2. Joe Evans- Iowa 100%

3. Collin Oliver- Oklahoma State 100%

4. Brian Ugwu- Miami (OH) 100%

5. Nate Matlack- Pittsburgh 100%

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Linebacker

• First Round

1. Jihaad Campbell- Alabama 100%

2. Carson Schwesinger- UCLA 100%

3. Chris Paul Jr.- Mississippi 100%

4. Jeffery Bassa- Oregon 100%

5. Barrett Carter- Clemson 100%

• Second Round

1. Carson Schwesinger- UCLA 100%

2. Chris Paul Jr.- Mississippi 100%

3. Jeffery Bassa- Oregon 100%

4. Barrett Carter- Clemson 100%

5. Jack Kiser- Notre Dame 100%

• Third Round

1. Jeffery Bassa- Oregon 50%

2. Barrett Carter- Clemson 100%

3. Jack Kiser- Notre Dame 100%

4. Kobe King- Penn State 100%

5. Cody Simon- Ohio State 100%

6. Cody Lindenberg- Minnesota 50%

• Fourth Round

1. Jack Kiser- Notre Dame 50%

2. Kobe King- Penn State 100%

3. Cody Simon- Ohio State 100%

4. Cody Lindenberg- Minnesota 100%

5. Danny Stutsman- Oklahoma 100%

6. Jaishawn Barham- Michigan 50%

• Fifth Round

1. Cody Simon- Ohio State 50%

2. Jaishawn Barham- Michigan 100%

3. Lander Barton- Utah 100%

4. Jay Higgins- Iowa 100%

5. Smael Mondon Jr.- Georgia 100%

6. Jamon Dumas-Johnson- Kentucky 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Cody Simon- Ohio State 50%

2. Jaishawn Barham- Michigan 50%

3. Jamon Dumas-Johnson- Kentucky 100%

4. Karene Reid- Utah 100%

5. Jalin Walker- Indiana 100%

6. Gaethan Bernadel- Stanford 100%

• Seventh Round

1. Cody Simon- Ohio State 50%

2. Nickolas Martin- Oklahoma State 50%

3. Teddye Buchanan- California 50%

4. David Gbenda- Texas 100%

5. Eric Gentry- USC 100%

6. Dylan Rosiek- Illinois 50%

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Cornerback

• First Round

1. Benjamin Morrison- Notre Dame 50%

2. Jahdae Barron- Texas 100%

3. Trey Amos- Mississippi 100%

4. Shavon Revel- East Carolina 100%

5. Darien Porter- Iowa State 100%

6. Zy Alexander- LSU 50%

• Second Round

1. Darien Porter- Iowa State 50%

2. Zy Alexander- LSU 100%

3. Maxwell Hairston- Kentucky 100%

4. Mello Dotson- Kansas 100%

5. Azareye’h Thomas- Florida State 100%

6. Daylen Everette- Georgia 50%

• Third Round

1. Mello Dotson- Kansas 100%

2. Azareye’h Thomas- Florida State 100%

3. Daylen Everette- Georgia 100%

4. Jacob Parrish- Kansas State 100%

5. Chandler Rivers- Duke 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Jacob Parrish- Kansas State 100%

2. Chandler Rivers- Duke 100%

3. Denzel Burke- Ohio State 100%

4. Dorian Strong- Virginia Tech 100%

5. Will Lee III- Texas A&M 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Chandler Rivers- Duke 50%

2. Nohl Williams- California 100%

3. Jaylin Smith- USC 100%

4. Quincy Riley- Louisville 100%

5. Tommi Hill- Nebraska 100%

6. Domani Jackson- Alabama 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Jason Marshall Jr- Florida 50%

2. Davison Igninosun- Ohio State 50%

3. Fentrell Cypress II- Florida State 100%

4. Cobee Bryant- Kansas 100%

5. Jabbar Muhammad- Oregon 100%

6. BJ Adams- UCF 100%

• Seventh Round

1. BJ Adams- UCF 100%

2. N/A

3. N/A

4. N/A

5. N/A

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Safety

• First Round

1. Xavier Watts- Notre Dame 100%

2. Sebastian Castro- Iowa 100%

3. Kevin Winston Jr.- Penn State 100%

4. Lathan Ransom- Ohio State 100%

5. Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina 100%

• Second Round

1, Xavier Watts- Notre Dame 50%

2. Sebastian Castro- Iowa 100%

3. Kevin Winston Jr.- Penn State 100%

4. Lathan Ransom- Ohio State 100%

5. Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina 100%

6. Andrew Mukuba- Texas 50%

• Third Round

1. Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina 100%

2. Andrew Mukuba- Texas 100%

3. Jonas Sanker- Virginia 100%

4. Billy Bowman Jr.- Oklahoma 100%

5. Rod Moore- Michigan 100%

• Fourth Round

1. Rod Moore- Michigan 50%

2. Michael Taaffe- Texas 100%

3. Akili Arnold- USC 100%

4. Upton Stout- Western Kentucky 100%

5. Alijah Clark- Syracuse 100%

6. Keon Sabb- Alabama 100%

• Fifth Round

1. Michael Taaffe- Texas 50%

2. Akili Arnold- USC 100%

3. Upton Stout- Western Kentucky 100%

4. Alijah Clark- Syracuse 100%

5. Keon Sabb- Alabama 100%

6. Daylan Carnell- Missouri 50%

• Sixth Round

1. Alijah Clark- Syracuse 50%

2. Daylan Carnell- Missouri 100%

3. Xavier Nwankpa- Iowa 50%

4. Hunter Wohler- Wisconsin 100%

5. Aubrey Burks- West Virginia 100%

6. Malachi Moore- Alabama 100%

• Seventh Round

1. CJ Taylor- Vanderbilt 100%

2. De’Rickey Wright- Vanderbilt 50%

3. N/A

4. N/A

5. N/A

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My Picks:

First Round

A: Tyler Warren

B: Colston Loveland

Second Round

A Carson Schwesinger

B Xavier Watts

Third Round

A: Nick Emmanwori- South Carolina (zero percent chance he’s available in the third without something going very wrong for him in the build up to the draft)

B: Jalen Milroe- Alabama

Fourth Round

A: Jacob Parrish- Kansas State

B : Jaeden Roberts- Alabama

Fifth Round

A: Miles Frazier- LSU

B: Chandler Rivers- Duke

Sixth Round

A: CJ West- Indiana

B: Jaishawn Barham- Michigan

Seventh Round

A: Graham Mertz- Florida

B: Dani Dennis-Sutton

Please note that outside of the first round picks, these aren’t indicative of how I would draft. These mocks were one step below completely random. I just tried to make them vastly different so that I could try to get my board to fall differently from draft to draft. When I saw that it didn’t really matter, I decided to call it. Again, these aren’t mocks I’m stamping as “my mocks” I just rolled them out for this article.

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Players PFF Mock Draft Simulator believes will go before #14 overall include several tackles we don’t need to worry about, some quarterbacks and at least one wide receiver (usually two). They also, pretty consistently have Michigan cornerback Will Johnson and Georgia safety Malaki Starks going pretty consistently as well.

Over the next few months we’re going to see a lot of names get added to this list, and probably between the time I ran these initial tests and today (around a week) I’m sure the results will look much different. Names will be added and guys we expect, right now, to be day two picks might just go undrafted. Conversely guys we don’t even know exist that play for Tarleton State might end up being a mid-day three pick.

For now, these are some names to watch out for in the general area of the draft we believe these guys might go come draft day. So when you’re at a sports bar eating fried pickles and you see the combine on a TV and the guy running the 40 yard dash is named Upton Stout from Western Kentucky, you’ll already know that he’s a likely day three safety prospect.

You’re welcome.

Next up in this series we’re going to take a look at the college all star bowl game rosters. Chris Ballard values guys who participate in these events and these events are completely full of guys who will be playing in the NFL in 2025.