Let’s just say the price would be high
The New York Giants could have controlled the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft if they had simply lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. Alas, they did not. So, they sit at No. 3 in the draft order.
It is a tricky spot because the Giants’ biggest need is a quarterback. There are a number of ways they can try to solve that Rubik’s Cube. We have discussed many of them, and will continue to do so for the next three months.
What if GM Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll decide they love Cam Ward of Miami or Shedeur Sanders of Colorado enough to stake their future employment on one of them by trying to trade up to No. 1 with the Tennessee Titans?
The Giants tried to move up from No. 6 to No. 3 a year ago to get quarterback Drake Maye. Reports were that the Giants offered their 2024, first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick and another pick in the 2024 draft. The Patriots did not want to play ball, and the Giants did not want to offer more, perhaps a third first-round pick.
Remember John Mara’s warning on ‘Hard Knocks’ about not giving away too much? If you get the quarterback but have no draft assets left to add quality players you risk wasting the the quarterback.
So, if the Giants do want to move up to No. 1, what is the right price?
Now, we have no idea if new Titans general manager Mike Borgonzi will want to trade down. His team needs a quarterback, too. Will Levis is not the answer. If he and coach Brian Callahan love Ward or Sanders, Tennessee probably sticks and picks.
If not, and if Schoen and Daboll are willing to pin their hopes of remaining employed by the Giants on Ward or Sanders, there might be a deal to be made.
In a recent mock draft, Jamie Eisner of The Draft Network had the Giants moving up to NO. 1 to select Ward. His trade:
- Giants get: 2025 No. 1 overall pick
- Titans get: Picks 3, 34, 65 in 2025 and a second-round pick in 2026
Giving up the first two days of their 2025 draft and an additional early pick in 2026 felt like an overpay to me.
So, I figured I would turn to the trade charts to see how they assessed the value. Problem is, which trade chart is most useful in figuring that out? The traditional Jimmy Johnson chart? The Rich Hill chart? The Stuart chart? The Pro Football Focus chart? The Harvard chart? The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart?
They all assign value to picks, and discount future picks, in a slightly different manner. We don’t know exactly what chart NFL teams use, and we think some teams use their own charts.
So, how do we come up with a useful indicator of what an acceptable baseline trade value might look like?
Fortunately, Joseph Hefner, whose work you might know if you use any of the apps at Jefe’s Handiwork, has done that work for us already.
Hefner’s research shows that the classic Johnson chart remains the one that most accurately depicts the trades teams make that involve first- and second-round draft assets. So, we will use the Johnson chart.
Using that chart, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points. The combined value of the four picks the Giants surrendered is 3,214 points. That is workable, even if the Titans might try to squeeze the Giants — as the move up aggressor in this trade — for a little more.
As I said above, I am not fond of giving up all of the premium draft assets this year. So, here is an alternative:
- Giants get: No. 1 overall pick in 2025
- Titans get: Picks 3 and 34 this year, and the Giants’ first-round pick in 2026
I am not crazy about giving up a second first-round pick, but the Giants were willing to do it in 2024 and it does leave at least one Day 2 asset for the Giants to add in the 2025 draft.
The point value per the Johnson chart? The Giants get 3,000 points and give up 3,210. Yes, just a four-point difference.
Will the Giants see Ward or Sanders as worthy of trading up for? I don’t know. Would you trade that much to acquire one of these players? As badly as the Giants need a franchise-changing quarterback, I can’t say definitively right now I would move the move.
Given the pressure they will be under to field an improved, far more competitive, product in 2025 I am not sure Schoen and Daboll can strip their 2025 draft class and put so many eggs in the Wars/Sanders basket.
Your thoughts, Giants fans?
