Ravens AFC Divisional Round preview: Where the Bills are most vulnerable?
Kickoff is fast approaching, and we’re just hours from the Ravens and Bills matching up in frigid temperatures, with the winner advancing to the AFC Championship game. The Bills are 16-5 at home all-time in the postseason, while John Harbaugh has eight road playoff wins – the most in NFL history.
The time has come, and we’re looking at where Buffalo could be most vulnerable.
Lack of play-action pass
Sep 29, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) rushes during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
The run sets up the pass in Buffalo, but Baltimore doesn’t fall for the run fakes, and they’ll make life miserable for the Bills. According to PFF, Josh Allen ranked seventh among qualifiers with a 91.9 PFF overall grade on action, and his 89.6 PFF rushing grade is the second-best mark among quarterbacks. Overall, the Bills rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success rate on play action. On Sunday, something has to give. Since Week 10, Baltimore is second in success rate and EPA per play against play action, having given up the fewest yards per play (5.7) on fake handoffs. During the Ravens Week 4 win, Allen completed 3-of-6 passes for nine yards, zero big-time throws, and two turnover-worthy plays. If Buffalo can’t control the clock, they’ll get run out of their own building.
Light box
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 11: Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates a touchdown during the second quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the AFC Wild Card Playoff at M&T Bank Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Buffalo likes to play five defensive backs but will need to decide if they’ll stuff the box to slow down Derrick Henry while not getting shredded through the air. Henry has averaged 158.3 yards rushing in his last four games, and the Ravens are 10-0 when he gets at least 100.
Kyle Van Noy
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 15: Kyle Van Noy #53 of the Baltimore Ravens warms up prior to a game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 15, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Van Noy had two sacks and three quarterback hits in Week 4 against Allen, and the Ravens’ pass rush will try to pressure Buffalo’s quarterback without letting him escape containment or hitting him late.
Josh Allen the runner
Sep 29, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to throw on the run during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason history (609), and Lamar Jackson ranks second (602). Still, running against the Ravens’ defense could be difficult, as they have given up 239 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (fifth fewest).
Lamar Jackson
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – JANUARY 11: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens hands the ball off to Derrick Henry #22 during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the AFC Wild Card Playoff at M&T Bank Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
If Buffalo is hell-bent on slowing down Derrick Henry, it could provide the backdrop for a 100-yard rushing performance for Lamar Jackson. The Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback, which is designed to run or scramble, which is higher than the league average.
