The Lions host a Washington team with a potent offense, but a porous run defense. Can David Montgomery capitalize in his return?
It’s playoff time, and that means the Lions are getting more reinforcements. After seeing a huge defensive surge from Alex Anzalone’s return in Week 18, the Lions are set to return David Montgomery to the lineup for their Divisional Round matchup against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have one of the league’s most potent offenses. However, their weakness lies right where the Lions like it: in run defense.
Bold prediction of the week: David Montgomery averages 5.0+ yards per carry in his return from injury
David Montgomery doesn’t always have the same flashy stats as Jahmyr Gibbs does, and it has a lot to do with usage. Montgomery is the default for short-yardage and goal line situations, and his runs are usually more between the tackles compared to Gibbs, who will get more opportunities to use his speed to get to the edge. That usually means Montgomery doesn’t accrue the same yardage as Gibbs.
As a result, Montgomery has only crossed the 5.0 yards per carry threshold three times in his 14 games this season. Notably, two of those came in absolute beatdowns against the Dallas Cowboys and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The third was the season opener, so it’s been a while since we saw Montgomery do so against a worthy opponent.
However, the Commanders may have just the right recipe for Montgomery to cross that threshold again. The Commanders have been one of the worst run defenses in the league this year. They had a hot stretch from late November into December where they held three (mediocre) teams each to <100 rushing yards, but have since fallen out of form again. In their last four games, the Commanders defense is allowing an average of 147 rushing yards per game. That’s not great.
The Commanders also present a uniquely good match for the Lions offense. Only two teams in NFL history have had three games in a season with zero turnovers and zero punts: this year’s Commanders, and this year’s Lions. That means you can expect a shootout, no matter how good of a recipe Aaron Glenn can cook up for this Lions defense. If the Commanders offense stays in the game, then the Lions won’t necessarily be in obvious chew clock running situations. That should mean David Montgomery will get more honest looks from the Commanders front seven, leading to more yards on the ground.
Obviously, nothing is a guarantee given Montgomery’s injury. He’s returning from a torn MCL that was initially supposed to take him out for the rest of the year. There’s no telling how close to 100% he’ll be, or if he’ll need to knock off some rust to start. The Lions are also anticipating a change to the offensive line. Kevin Zeitler has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, with Christian Mahogany set to replace him at right guard. That leaves a bit of a question mark as far as whether the run game will be as consistent as usual.
Ultimately, the Commanders present what is likely the weakest run defense the Lions have seen in two months. That’s a great opportunity to capitalize, but there’s no telling how ready Montgomery will be to do so. If he can hit the ground running, and all goes well with Mahogany filling in, then expect him to cross the 5.0 YPC threshold en route to a playoff victory over Washington.
