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NFL Divisional Round Preview: Storylines, matchups to watch, betting picks and more

Whether it’s star quarterbacks facing off, underdog teams looking to pull off upsets or key betting angles to explore, we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know heading into the divisional round.


NFL Divisional Round Preview: Storylines, matchups to watch, betting picks and more

NFL Divisional Round Preview: Storylines, matchups to watch, betting picks and more

2YAEPDR Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) is lifted by Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson (65) after Hurts threw a touchdown pass to Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)


By

Mason Cameron

The NFL playoffs are here, and the divisional round promises to deliver plenty of drama.

Whether it’s star quarterbacks facing off, underdog teams looking to pull off upsets or key betting angles to explore, we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know heading into the action.

Click below to jump to a game:

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) [Total: 41.5]

Storyline of the Game: The Chiefs begin their march toward a three-peat

The reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions are set to begin their quest to become the first team to capture three straight titles. After clinching the AFC’s top seed before the end of the regular season, Kansas City enjoyed a much-needed bye week to recover and regroup. Now, the focus shifts to whether their rhythm and cohesion hold strong, as many of the team’s key contributors haven’t played since the holidays.

Meanwhile, the Texans find themselves in familiar territory. For the second straight year, they defended their home field with a commanding wild-card round win, setting up a road trip to face the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Last year’s divisional round didn’t end as this team hoped, but they now have the opportunity to avenge not only that loss but also their Week 16 loss to the same Chiefs team.

Matchups to Watch: Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie vs. Texans WR Nico Collins

A matchup featuring two PFF All-Pros starts off the divisional round. Collins, PFF’s second-highest-graded receiver this season, started the postseason right, hauling in seven catches for 122 yards and a score.

Nico Collins had the upper hand in his previous matchup against Trent McDuffie, with the Chiefs’ standout cornerback earning just a 58.5 coverage grade in that game. Despite that outing, McDuffie’s body of work this season speaks for itself, highlighted by his league-leading 7.419 advanced coverage grade.

Betting Trends

The Texans improved to 2-1 against the spread in the postseason under head coach DeMeco Ryans after covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in the wild-card round. This week, they face their steepest spread as underdogs this season. The only other time Houston faced a line of more than 6 points was in Week 17 against Baltimore, a game the Ravens dominated 31-2.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a history of playoff success in betting markets, with Mahomes boasting a 13-5 ATS postseason record. However, Kansas City has struggled to cover at home this season, holding just a 37.5% cover rate (3-5 ATS) at Arrowhead. Four of those misses came as favorites of 6 points or more.

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 3.5 Rushing yards (-123)

Xavier Worthy’s role in the run game grew significantly over the final weeks of the regular season, as he has logged at least one carry in his last four games (excluding a limited one-snap appearance in Week 18).

This increase in involvement has allowed him to exceed this rushing line in each of those contests. Worthy has averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per carry this season, with 2.9 yards coming after contact, making this over a realistic target again.

Additional News

Chiefs assistant GM Mike Borgonzi interviewed with the Titans for their vacant general manager position.

The Texans released WR Diontae Johnson after just two games. Johnson was claimed by the Ravens, marking his return to Baltimore after the Super Bowl.

Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo and OC Matt Nagy have received interview requests for head coaching positions.

Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) practiced in a limited capacity and is expected to play this week after missing earlier sessions.

Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson (ankle) is set to return to the lineup this week, having been sidelined since Week 7.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (-9.5) [Total: 55.5]

Storyline of the Game: The final act of Detroit’s redemption arc

After a storybook 2023 season for the Lions ended in heartbreak in the NFC Championship Game, Dan Campbell and his team regrouped and refocused for 2024. Now, they stand on the precipice of redemption. A dominant Week 18 victory secured the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, giving Detroit the momentum and home-field advantage they need to finally complete their march to the Super Bowl.

In his first career playoff appearance, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels led Washington to its first postseason victory since 2005. However, there’s little time to savor the win, as the Commanders prepare to face the NFC’s top seed. With their sights set on breaking a 33-year drought since their last trip to the NFC Championship Game, Washington enters this matchup with everything to prove.

Matchups to Watch: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs Lions S Kerby Joseph

Terry McLaurin is amid a career year, earning well-deserved accolades like Pro Bowl and AP All-Pro honors. His 82.2 receiving grade in the regular season ranked in the top 20 among wide receivers, and he elevated his game even further in the wild-card round, earning a season-best 88.1 game grade — his best single-game mark since 2021.

Joseph was somehow left off the NFL’s Pro Bowl roster, but he deservedly took home PFF & AP first-team All-Pro honors. Joseph led all safeties with a 90.8 coverage grade during the regular season, tying for the league lead with eight interceptions.

Betting Trends

Detroit finished the regular season tied for the NFL’s best cover rate (70.6%; 12-4-1 ATS), partly due to their 5-3-1 ATS record at home and their 4-2 ATS record as 6-plus-point favorites. Last season, the Lions covered two of their three playoff matchups.

The Commanders, meanwhile, covered as 3-point road underdogs in the wild-card round, improving their ATS record as underdogs to 4-2-1 on the year. This game represents the largest spread they’ve faced as underdogs this season, though they’ve performed well in similar spots, holding a 1-0-1 record when given six or more points.

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: Over 22.5 Completions (-110)

The winner of PFF’s Rookie of the Year award faces an uphill battle in this one. Given the sizable point spread in this one, Oddsmakers expect the Lions to command this game, which should support a pass-heavy game script for Washington. Daniels has surpassed this line in each of his last six full games, largely due to Washington throwing the fifth-most screen passes (94) in the regular season.

Additional News

Lions RB David Montgomery (knee) practiced in full this week and appears on track to return for the Divisional Round.

Lions OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn have wrapped up multiple interviews for head coaching opportunities across the league.

The New York Jets have interviewed Lions executive Chris Spielman as a candidate for their vacant GM position.

Lions RG Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) missed practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday, putting his status for this weekend in doubt.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) [Total: 44]

Storyline of the Game: Can the Rams overcome the hostile environment?

The Rams and Eagles are just a step away from returning to the Super Bowl, a stage both teams have reached in the past three seasons. Coming off impressive wild-card victories, they now prepare for a matchup that the elements could heavily influence, with snow, wind and frigid temperatures expected to play a significant role.

The conditions could challenge the Rams, a team unaccustomed to harsh weather this season. Their lone game played in sub-40-degree temperatures came in Week 16 against the Jets. While they secured a 19-9 victory, their offensive output left much to be desired, managing just 4.8 yards per play.

Matchups to Watch: Saquon Barkley vs. The Rams’ front seven

The newest member of the 2K Club looked every bit the workhorse for the Eagles in the wild-card round, amassing 119 yards on 25 carries and ripping off three explosive runs of 15 or more yards. With wintry conditions in the forecast for this week’s matchup, Barkley is expected to shoulder another heavy workload.

According to PFF’s Key Insights, Barkley leads the league in yards before contact per carry (2.6), showcasing his ability to find running lanes and reach the second level.

The Rams defense ranks in the bottom five in average yards before contact allowed (1.5), underscoring their struggles in quickly closing down rushing attacks.

Betting Trends

Philadelphia has been a reliable team in betting markets this season, posting a strong 66.7% cover rate (12-6 ATS), one of the best in the NFL. While the Eagles are 3-3 ATS in the playoffs since drafting Jalen Hurts, all three covers came as home favorites at The Linc.

The Rams, meanwhile, enter this matchup with momentum in betting markets after handing Minnesota another loss in the wild-card round despite being home underdogs. L.A. has now covered six of their last seven games, with three outright wins as underdogs during that stretch.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 25.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

With weather expected to play a significant role, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ ground game are poised to take center stage once again. Even without the weather as a factor, this passing yardage line for Jalen Hurts feels inflated. Hurts has surpassed this total in only two games since the team’s Week 5 bye.

Additional News

Rams TE Tyler Higbee (chest) was hospitalized after exiting the wild-card matchup. Head coach Sean McVay told reporters Higbee was “coughing up a little bit of blood.” Reports indicate his condition has improved, and Higbee hopes to play this week.

Eagles LB Nakobe Dean (knee) suffered a torn patellar tendon in his knee, not only ending his season but putting his status to start next season in jeopardy.

Dallas has requested permission to interview Eagles OC Kellen Moore for an open head coach vacancy.

L.A. has designated edge defender Larrell Murchison and LB Troy Reeder to return from IR.

Snow is a likely factor for Sunday’s matchup in Philly.

Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ Buffalo Bills [Total: 51.5]

Storyline of the Game: MVP favorites face off in frigid temps

The debate over who will claim the NFL’s most prestigious individual honor has been a constant since the regular season wrapped up, with Josh Allen of the Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens firmly in the spotlight. Both quarterbacks lived up to the hype in the wild-card round, delivering stellar performances that placed them among the top 15 highest-graded players of the weekend.

As these two superstars prepare for their divisional showdown, the stage will be set in the frosty confines of Orchard Park. Weather forecasts predict single-digit temperatures at kickoff, with the possibility of dipping below zero and a 40% chance of snow, adding another layer of intrigue to this epic matchup.

Matchups to Watch: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Ravens S Kyle Hamilton

While both players showcased their immense talent during the regular season, the wild-card round wasn’t their best showing, and both will aim for redemption in the divisional round.

Hamilton earned just a 61.6 overall grade last week, a notable drop from his 90.1 mark during the regular season — the second-highest among safeties. While cold weather could limit Buffalo’s reliance on the passing game, Hamilton will need to reestablish himself as one of Baltimore’s key defensive anchors to slow down Josh Allen and company.

Kincaid also struggled to make his usual impact, recording his lowest receiving grade of the year at 52.4. The Broncos succeeded in assigning top-tier coverage defenders to disrupt the rookie tight end’s rhythm. With Hamilton and the Ravens defense likely to follow a similar blueprint, Kincaid will need to rise to the occasion to keep the Bills’ offense humming.

Betting Trends

Lamar Jackson’s postseason narrative is shifting, with the Ravens now riding a five-game cover streak, all as favorites. After covering as 8.5-point favorites in the Wild-card round, Baltimore boasts an impressive 6-2 ATS record when laying points on the road this season, dispelling concerns about Jackson’s 2-4 playoff ATS record heading into the year.

Josh Allen and the Bills have a less favorable postseason ATS track record at 4-7. Yet, this marks a rare occasion for Buffalo as home underdogs. At Highmark Stadium, the Bills have excelled this season with a 6-3 ATS record, covering in all games as favorites.

When these teams last met in September, the Ravens dominated with a 35-10 victory, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This time, the Bills will look to even the score in front of their home crowd.

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 19.5 Carries (-113)

PFF’s best runner of the season, Derrick Henry, wasted no time leaving his mark on the wild-card round, producing one of his best outings of the season. He tallied 186 rushing yards — over 60% of which came after first contact — and scored twice on 26 carries. The performance marked his fourth consecutive game surpassing this line. With weather conditions expected to impact the game’s tempo, Henry should remain a focal point of the offense.

Additional News

Baltimore has claimed WR Diontae Johnson off waivers following his release from Houston. He won’t rejoin the team until after the Super Bowl.

Cold temperatures and possible snow showers are forecasted for the Buffalo area on Sunday night.

The Maxwell Football Club has named Bills HC Sean McDermott the 36th winner of the Earle Greasy Neale Award, given to the season’s most outstanding coach in the NFL.

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Our blog is all about curating the best stories, insights, and updates on your favorite teams. Whether you’re a passionate fan or just love the game, SportSourcio is here to keep you connected with what’s happening on and off the field.

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