Eagles-Rams Film Preview

I’m not the biggest fan of Eagles game previews, mainly because I don’t have the time to watch even more film during the season. But it’s the playoffs! Let’s get into the Rams.

Full disclosure: I struggle with previews because there’s too much to talk about. I could go on forever. So, I won’t break this down into strengths and weaknesses. I’m just going to give a bunch of thoughts about the Rams after watching as much film as possible and looking at the stats. I use a bunch of stats in this one, and credit goes to Team Rankings, PFF, and Sports Info Solutions. Lastly, my podcast co-host @ShaneHaffNFL is responsible for putting some of the graphics together in this one. I’ll use some film from the Eagles week 12 matchup, too. Let’s go!

Rams Offense vs. Eagles Defense

• This is a very diverse Rams’ offense that can win in numerous ways. I would describe them as a good, not great, team. The numbers back that up.

• Sean McVay is a fantastic offensive mind. He’s changed the Rams’ offense a lot over the past few years, and it’s a lot more multiple than it used to be. However, a leopard doesn’t change its spots. It’s still a Sean McVay offense. You can expect to see a lot of 11 personnel, motion, and play-action. The Eagles saw a similar offense this past week which should help them prepare for this one. The Eagles must be disciplined to deal with the play action bootlegs.

• Let’s focus on the passing game first. Matthew Stafford has superstar ability. The arm talent and funky arm angles he can throw from are rare. If the Rams’ offensive line keeps him clean, he will be hard to stop. However, Stafford is a statue in the pocket and does not want to get hit. If the Eagles can get pressure early, Stafford will really struggle. The Rams were 0/8 against the Eagles on 3rd down in week 12 because the Eagles did a good job getting after Stafford.
• Despite what I just said, the Eagles should not blitz Stafford a lot. Stafford is too smart and he can shred the blitz. Brian Flores blitzed him a lot last week, and Stafford made him pay. The best way to get after Stafford is with simulated pressure, such as ‘Whip’, a Vic Fangio favorite! Annoyingly, Nakobe Dean is usually the blitzing linebacker on Whip, which makes his injury even more annoying.

• The Rams use a lot of condensed splits. They will test the Eagles’ defense in the middle of the field a lot, and it will be interesting to see how the Eagles cope without Nakobe Dean. Expect to see a lot of this. Puka Nacua is excellent. He is outstanding at playing through contact and has great hands. He’s a brilliant run blocker, and the Rams will use him in the C-gap too.

• The best offensive minds know how to go after a weakness. The Eagles may have a weakness at linebacker in this one. I expect the Rams to run a lot of Hi-Lo concepts from bunches/stacks to test Oren Burks/Jeremiah Trotter Jr. The Rams absolutely love targeting the middle of the field and I expect them to do it this week.
• The Eagles had a problem with missed tackles in the open field this past week. Keep an eye on short throws to Puka Nacua in this one. Luckily, Cooper Kupp doesn’t break tackles like he used to!
• Let’s talk running game. The McVay running game used to be all about zone runs, especially outside zone. They are still a zone running team, but they run a lot more gap scheme than they did a few years ago. They pull their guards a lot more and love to run duo. When the Eagles played the Rams in week 12, the Rams had a lot of success early on running the football.

However, the Eagles made a schematic change immediately. They went to a 5-man front during the first drive, which nullified the Rams’ running game. The problem is that the Eagles kicked Brandon Graham inside and moved Zack Baun to EDGE. Sadly, the Eagles won’t be able to do this this week. I expect to see a little bit more Jordan Davis this week.

I’m sad about Brandon Graham again.

• The Rams’ running game is led by Kyren Williams, who has developed into a great back. He’s patient behind the line of scrimmage, and he breaks a lot of tackles. He lacks the explosiveness that Saquon Barkley has, but he is a tough inside runner who will test the Eagles ability to tackle in the open field. If the Eagles stop the run on early downs, then I think they have a great chance of stopping this Rams’ offense on 3rd down. Outside of Nacua, the receiving core doesn’t scare me too much.

Eagles Offense vs. Rams Defense

• I think the game plan this week will be very similar to this past week. Sorry for those of you who want to see an aggressive passing game, but it might not be this week. If the Eagles’ offense plays up to their potential, they should score some points this week. This Rams’ defense is fine, but it isn’t special. I will be disappointed if the Eagles do not play well on offense this week.

• The big thing about the Rams’ defense is that they want to live in a light box world. It is very, very hard to stop this Eagles’ running game with a light box. The Eagles’ run game, especially with Jalen Hurts’ mobility, is tough to stop without stacking the box. The Rams didn’t do well in Week 12.

• Ironically, stacking the box didn’t work for the Rams either. The Eagles ran a lot of zone runs when the Rams played light boxes. So, the Rams started stacking the box and putting more men on the line of scrimmage. When they did this, the Eagles went to their favorite running play that excels against a heavy front. Counter.

• I expect the Eagles to lean into the running game this week. I don’t see a reason why Saquon Barkley should not have another big game. For those of you who have forgotten, Saquon Barkley rushed for 255 yards when these two teams met in Week 12
• The Rams don’t blitz a lot, so I wouldn’t expect them to blitz the Eagles too much.

• When the Rams blitzed the Eagles in Week 12, the Eagles looked comfortable. Hurts had several good throws to the middle of the field against the Rams. However, when I went back and watched this one, I still was not impressed with the Eagles’ passing concepts, which isn’t surprising, sadly!

• Here’s a random schematic note for you… I’ve seen the Eagles run ‘Dash’ once this year. It was against the Rams. I would like to see more of Hurts on the move. Due to the Rams playing a lot of two-high shells, the Eagles will need to work the middle of the field again. I hope we see a lot of concepts like this as the Rams will try to take away the outside the number deep shots.

• The Rams’ defense does have some very talented young defensive linemen. I think Braden Fiske could have some success if he can win with his first step. I was a big fan of his coming out. Kobie Turner is another fun lineman to watch who wins with violent hands. The Rams have some talent up front, but I still think the Eagles’ offensive line should be fine in pass protection. Not many teams have the talent to pressure Hurts.
• One of the reasons why the Rams want to stay in a two-high shell is similar to the Eagles. They want to disguise their coverage. You will see a ton of post-snap rotation in this game. I wonder if we might see the Eagles use empty formations a lot to give Hurts a very clean picture pre-snap.

Overall

I will never feel confident against a Sean McVay team because I think he is a fantastic coach. You just can’t count out Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense is capable of scoring points against any defense. However, I will feel pretty horrendous if the Eagles don’t get this win. The Eagles are the better team by nearly every metric and they are playing at home. I feel pretty good about this one. It’s the playoffs, though… you can never feel too confident. I expect the Eagles to play with another conservative game plan that relies on running the football a lot. Hopefully, it will be enough, just like it was this past week.

If you want more, I’ll be posting daily thoughts on Discord, which is attached to my Patreon. I recorded a Rams’ preview which is only available on Patreon.