Identifying our favorite player prop bets to consider for the Detroit Lions Divisional Round matchup with the Washington Commanders.
The Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders will face off in the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair. Here are three Lions-based wagers to consider, with betting odds courtesy of the folks over at FanDuel Sportsbook, that we like in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, OVER 110.5 Rushing and Receiving yards (-114)
In the three games David Montgomery missed due to injury, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 25.7 touches, 162.3 all-purpose yards, and two touchdowns per game. And while Gibbs will be splitting backfield responsibilities with Montgomery again, it shouldn’t put too much of a dent in expectations for the second-year back.
The Commanders’ run defense is arguably the worst part of their team and, on average, they allow 135.4 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL), 4.7 yards per attempt (28th), have allowed 64 runs of over 10+ yards (28th), and 2.08 rushing yards before contact (30th).
Even with Montgomery returning, there’s plenty of meat on the bone to go around. I’m expecting Gibbs to gain yards in chunks, both on the ground and in the passing game, so grab the combo and take the over.
Jameson Williams, OVER 3.5 receptions (-140)
While Williams is known for his explosive skill set, predicting when he will break off a big catch can be difficult. For example, his receiving yards betting line is 56.5 (-113), but in the last seven games, he has only exceeded that total four times.
However, a trend we have seen with Williams of late is the volume in which he is targeted and the amount of receptions he is reeling in. In the Lions’ last seven games, Williams has been targeted at least seven times and caught at least five receptions in six of them.
I like taking the OVER 3.5 receptions here, but if you want better odds, you could also consider: Williams Alternative Receptions 5+ at +158 odds.
Sam LaPorta, Anytime touchdown (+140)
While LaPorta didn’t find the end zone in the Lions’ last game against the Vikings, he did score a touchdown in the previous two games, against the 49ers and Bears (he also scored two TDs against the Bears in their first meeting). The commonality between those two teams is their defenses deploy a single-high formation on over half of their snaps.
Enter Washington, who deploy single-high safety sets on 55% of their defensive snaps, rank 26th vs. the tight end in DVOA, and have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends this season (T-5th most).
