Are the Rams similar to the 2011 New York Giants?
Every once in a while there is a team that comes out of seemingly nowhere and wins the Super Bowl. While the 2024 Los Angeles Rams didn’t come out of nowhere, many of the analytics wouldn’t consider them your typical Super Bowl winner. The Rams came into the playoffs ranking 17th in total team DVOA. Offensively, they rank only 14th in EPA per play while ranking 26th in EPA per play defensively.
Most Super Bowl teams have at least one elite unit, but that hasn’t been the case for the Rams this season. Still, it’s not unheard of for a team like that to go to the Super Bowl. The 2011 New York Giants were exactly like this and this Rams team isn’t too much different. Both teams had a prior championship pedigree, but neither were seen as serious threats. The Giants snuck into the playoffs at 9-7 in a bad NFC East while the Rams snuck in at 10-7 on a tiebreaker in a weak NFC West.
Despite their history, they were two teams that were written off as they were far from dominant at any point during the regular season. At one point, the Giants lost four consecutive games to fall to 6-6. They finished the year with a -6 point differential. They were the first team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl with a negative point differential. Meanwhile, the Rams started 1-4 before clawing back and also finished with a -19 point differential.
Again, neither side was seen as a typical playoff contender. The Giants finished 2011 with a 5.9 percent total team DVOA with a defense that ranked 22nd. They at least had a top-10 offense in DVOA at 10.9 percent. The Rams have a 5.1 percent total team DVOA with an offense that ranks 10th and defense that ranks 26th.
These are two similarly built teams. When the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007, it was the last hoorah for Hall of Fame defensive end Michael Strahan. When the Giants returned to the Super Bowl in 2011, Aaron Ross was the only defensive starter in both games. Osi Umenyiora played in both games, but didn’t start in 2011.
The current Rams defense doesn’t have a single starter from the group that won the Super Bowl three years ago. Aaron Donald retired following the 2023 season and after 2022, the Rams had to rebuild the defense. The Giants had a new, young defensive star in the making in Jason Pierre-Paul while the Rams found Jared Verse.
Late in the year, it was the defensive lines that took over. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck each ranked in the top-25 in pressures. That’s been Verse and Kobie Turner for the Rams.
The playoffs is where the Giants defense really took over. They held the Atlanta Falcons to under 10 points in the wild card round just like the Rams held the Vikings to nine. In the divisional round, the Giants beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field after losing to them in Week 13. The Rams are set to play the Eagles, a team they lost to in Week 12 at home.
We’ll have to see if the Rams can continue their similarly unlikely playoff run with a win over the Eagles. However, some of the similarities between the two teams are hard to look past. These are two teams with good offenses and defenses that weren’t seen as a strong unit heading into the postseason. They both went through a difficult stretch in which it looked like they may not make the playoffs at all. However, they got hot at the right time and in the NFL, sometimes that’s all it takes.
