Time for the Vikings — and the Rams — to hit the road for Wild Card Monday night!
Last week, we at Daily Norseman did not do a roundtable discussion, and it showed as the Minnesota Vikings got thrashed by the Detroit Lions.
We can’t have that blood on our hands any longer, so back by un(popular) request, we’re here to break down this NFC Wild Card Monday night game (sheesh, that’s a mouthful).
Is it the master (Sean McVay) vs. the apprentice (Kevin O’Connell)? Does that even make sense due to their relatively similar ages?
We know the Vikings took the L in the regular season, and are looking to get it back in January. Can they do it?
It should be fun to find out, and we’ve enlisted Daily Norseman staffers Christopher Gates, Brandon Warne (me!) and Sam Buegler as experts this week to answer all your burning questions:
Q1: Which (non-Vikings) game did you expect to be the most entertaining this week? Did it hold up?
Christopher Gates: “Honestly, I thought that Commanders/Buccaneers would end up being the most entertaining matchup and it wound up being the case. The other games seemed to be mismatched, particularly the 2/7 matchups, and most of the games this past weekend were just outright bad. Even the one game that was a bit of a shocker with Houston beating the Chargers was bad because the Chargers didn’t even bother showing up. With Jayden Daniels running the show, I figured that the Commanders would at least give the Buccaneers issues, and I even picked them to win outright in our weekly picks, so from that perspective, it held up pretty well, I suppose.”
Brandon Warne: “For me it was Commanders-Buccaneers, and I think it’s for the most part that it was two teams who have been overexposed to us in the playoffs over the last few years*. That’s not to say I’m sick of seeing the Chiefs in the AFC Title game, but yeah it actually is. I like seeing new teams make new pathways with their franchises in the playoffs, and this game guaranteed that would be the case.
“And yeah, it ended on a walk-off single-donk winning field goal. I’d say it lived up to the billing.”
*(note: I’m aware the Bucs won it with Tom Brady, but it’s not a franchise I historically consider a postseason powerhouse)
Sam Buegler: “Maybe this is on me, but I started to hear rumbling that the Broncos could be a good upset pick. I thought they might have some fire on offense, and after their first drive, it seemed like we might have been in for a shoot-out! And then the rest of the game happened. I’m not shocked the Bills won it but I really did think the Broncos would put up more resistance.”
Q2: How much benefit do you think it truly is to the Vikings that this game was moved?
CG: “While it stinks for the Rams to sort of get jobbed out of a home playoff game, I don’t know if they’ll be at that much of a disadvantage as far as the crowd goes. Rams and Cardinals season ticket holders got a two-hour headstart on buying tickets before they were available to the general public, and it sounds like they nabbed quite a bit of what was available. Sure, I’m guessing some of those ended up getting resold because that’s just the nature of the beast today, but I think there will still be plenty of Rams fans in attendance.
“I do think the crowd will be a bit more evenly split than it would have been had the game remained in L.A., but I still think it’s likely going to be advantage Rams as far as turnout is concerned.”
BW: “I’m not really sure. We saw the Vegas line swing, and they don’t play around out there. But ultimately, 2.5 points isn’t much of a margin and I think the Vikings have shown they can be a tough out on the road as well as at home.
“With that said, it seems like the Vikings have a nice fan base in Arizona, so I think maybe that can swing some of the benefit of proximity and, as CGates said early ticket sales, that gave the Rams’ fans an added advantage. And to be perfectly honest, I feel sort of bad talking about it in this manner simply due to the reason the game was moved. If you win, you win; if you lose you lose. Nobody will look back on the venue as mattering all that much.”
SB: “I think it is a benefit, but not too much. The game is still on the West Coast, the team will still need to adjust to the time zone change, and Rams fans are still going to show up in a large contingent. Hopefully, it will let more Vikings fans into the building and add some purple to what would have been a sea of blue before this.”
Q3: What Rams personnel are you most concerned about?
CG: “The Rams’ defensive front is my biggest worry. The last time these two teams played, the pass rush was getting to Sam Darnold quite a bit, but in a different way than it was last week in Detroit. The Rams have two outstanding rookies on defense in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, and their defensive coordinator was making the adjustments to make things difficult for Minnesota’s offense. Now, some of that might have been having to adjust on the fly to the loss of Christian Darrisaw, but the Rams’ front seven on defense is still very formidable and the Vikings will have to figure out ways to keep them off Darnold if the Vikings are going to win.”
BW: “I’m right with CGates here, too. While I agree Puka Nacua is a problem with a capital P — lowercase ‘p’un intended, I guess — you have to be concerned about the ravenous Rams pass rush, especially in light of what we saw from Sam Darnold last Sunday night.
“If the Rams use anything they saw from the Lions — a much less impressive defensive front, I’d say — last week to attack the Vikings and get to Darnold, it might be over before it started.”
SB: “It is the obvious answer but Puka. Last time, they weren’t counting on him playing and then he was in and dropped 107 on them. The Vikings will have more of a plan this time since they are counting on him being in, but you can’t let him and Stafford start to heat up. If Puka gets going, then it will take a large amount of the defense to stop him, which will allow Kyren Williams or Cooper Kupp to get some momentum.”
Q4: Let’s hear it: what’s your prediction for Monday night, and why?
CG: “Darnold played one of his two worst games of the season last Sunday against Detroit, with the other being the three-interception performance against Jacksonville. After that Jacksonville game, Darnold went on a tear and had the Vikings on the verge of capturing the NFC’s #1 seed. I can’t see him putting up two straight clunkers, and I think the Vikings’ defense will be better prepared for the Rams’ offense than they were the first time these two teams played. When they played in Week 8, the Vikings had to travel to the West Coast on a short week and then the Rams made Puka Nacua active at the last minute, which even Brian Flores says caused them to scramble a bit. I don’t think anything like that happens this time.
“It’s going to be a good game, but I think the Vikings can get themselves back on track and earn a trip to Philadelphia. Let’s call it 27-20, Vikings.”
BW: “Dilly dilly. I’ve got the Vikings winning 31-24 and moving onto Philly. If we’ve seen anything from Darnold this season, it’s that he’s done a really nice job rebounding from a tough effort.
“For instance, take a look at Darnold’s tough games and what the next one looked like:
- Week 5 vs. Jets: 50.3 passer rating
- Week 6 vs. Lions: 103.5 passer rating
- Week 10 vs. Jaguars: 48.2 passer rating
- Week 11 vs. Titans: 107.0 passer rating
- Week 15 vs. Bears: 74.1 passer rating
- Week 16 vs. Seahawks: 112.3 passer rating
- Week 17 vs. Lions: 55.5 passer rating
- Wild Card vs. Rams: ?
“This is not exactly rocket science, but it’s also not as though they played teams with two drastically different pass defenses that would explain most of this difference.
“I’ve got a good feeling about Monday night. I just do.
SB: “I’ll say a 24-17 Vikings win. The Vikings, on average, have scored more points in the first quarter, so they will come out to an early lead. It’ll be close through most of it, but towards the start of the fourth quarter, the Vikings will start to pull away a bit, and then let the Rams back into it. But in the end, the Vikings will hold out and move onto the divisional round!”
