How the Vikings Can Bounce Back and Beat the Rams

Comparison to their Week 8 matchup

After their loss in Detroit, the tide of enthusiasm for the Minnesota Vikings, their 14-3 season, and playoffs seems to have gone out. Such is the reality of NFL teams. One week Sam Darnold is a hero for delivering the Vikings’ best season in years and the next he’s berated for not being able to hit the broad side of a barn. The fan distancing from a team that might go one-and-done to end their season has begun.

Be that as may, there are plenty of reasons to expect that contrary to other years, the Vikings will bounce back and beat the Rams rather than wither and fade under the playoff spotlight. Let’s look at them.

Different Circumstances from Their Week 8 Matchup

One situation that remains top of mind for many Vikings fans is that the Vikings lost to the Lions in week seven, then lost to the Rams the following week. Repeating that scenario now seems likely, coming off arguably their worst performance of the season.

But the circumstances around week eight differ significantly from this upcoming wild card playoff game. A few key differences:

• The game will be played at a neutral site in Glendale, AZ as a result of the wildfires in LA. That gives the Vikings a likely advantage, as there will likely be more Vikings’ fans in attendance than Rams fans. Also, both teams will have to travel for the game.
• The Vikings will be able to game plan for Puka Nucua. The Rams gamed Nucua’s availability in the earlier matchup this season by not activating him from IR until game day, which left the Vikings scrambling to alter their game plan as best they could on short notice. There is no such situation this time around and the Vikings should be better prepared.
• The Vikings have Blake Cashman back. Cashman missed the first game against the Rams, which was notable because the Vikings failed to pressure Matthew Stafford on any of their twelve blitzes in that game. Cashman is a frequent blitzer for the Vikings and also their best linebacker in coverage.

• The Vikings now have Cam Robinson at left tackle and Dalton Risner at right guard. The Vikings lost Christian Darrisaw just before halftime in the first Rams game, and his replacement David Quessenberry gave up a QB hit and hurry in just 14 pass blocking snaps in the second half. Ed Ingram, who played right guard in the first matchup, gave up a sack and another pressure in that game.
• The Vikings also have T.J. Hockenson back. He was not available in the first matchup.

A lot of these seem like minor things but collectively make a bigger difference. Let’s take a look at each one.

Neutral Site

When the game was moved to Arizona, that added 1 to 1.5 points to the Vikings’ moneyline. Normally home field advantage is thought to provide a 2-3 point advantage to the home team and the Rams lost that when the game was moved to Glendale. My guess is that the fans in the stadium will be roughly 50/50 between Vikings and Rams fans, making it a neutral site. The Rams also have to travel for this game, unlike week eight, making it more like a road game for them as well as the Vikings.

Bottom line, the neutral site provides the Vikings with a point or two advantage compared to the week eight matchup, and their could be some other factors with moving the game to Arizona that favor the Vikings as well.

Game Planning for Puka Nacua

The Rams have been notoriously slow starters this season, ranking 31st in first quarter points scored (1.8) and 26th in first-half points scored (8.6). In the week eight matchup, the Rams scored touchdowns on their first two possessions. Nacua had 71 total yards on those two possessions, along with a (poor) defensive holding call against him that extended the Rams drive.

Nacua was not activated from injured reserve week eight until game day, which left the Vikings just hours to prepare for him. Nacua has been targeted on 40% of his routes and is the Rams’ #1 receiver. But on a short week with Nucua still on IR the day before the game, the Vikings probably didn’t spend as much time in film study of Nucua and game planning for him.

This time around, the Vikings will have a lot more inventory of Nacua this season and will be better prepared knowing he’ll play. That could result in a different game plan in how they defend Nacua, who is a focal point of their offense.

Vikings Get Blake Cashman Back

Getting Cashman back will help the Vikings’ defense against both the run and pass and should also help the Vikings’ pass rush. He’s the defensive signal caller and the Vikings’ best linebacker in coverage. And he’s also been an effective blitzer. Getting more pressure on Matthew Stafford compared to week eight (when he had very little pressure at all), will be a big difference in this game compared to the first matchup and could lead to more stalled drives for the Rams. Additionally, Cashman will also be helpful in limiting Kyren Williams’ production on the ground.

Vikings have T.J. Hockenson Now Too

The Rams don’t have good coverage guys against tight ends and the addition of Hockenson should help exploit that shortcoming. The Vikings had three receptions for 40 yards to tight ends in week eight, including a short TD to Josh Oliver, but the addition of Hockenson should result in even more production and ability to move the chains.

Cam Robinson Should Help Compared to Quessenberry

Additionally, in the week eight matchup the Vikings lost Christian Darrisaw just before halftime. David Quessenberry replaced him and was pretty shaky, giving up a couple of pressures in just 14 pass blocking reps. Cam Robinson is an upgrade over Quessenberry, especially going up against Jared Verse, who is primarily a bull rusher. Robinson is 6’6”, 335 pounds with a low center of gravity and is built to withstand bull rushes. He’s got 80 pounds on Verse, which helps as well.

Bottom Line

The Vikings have had a better chance to prepare against the Rams compared to their Thursday night road matchup in week eight. They also may some key personnel back that were missing week eight and this time play the Rams on a neutral site. All those things should have a positive effect for the Vikings this time around against the Rams.

The Rams’ offense has struggled in recent weeks, failing to score more than 20 points in the last three games their starters played. The Rams’ defense stepped up in those games, however, allowing under ten points in each of those games, albeit against teams eliminated from the playoffs and largely mailing it in.

The Rams went 3-3 in the red zone against the Vikings week eight, despite being ranked just 25th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 52.4%. The Vikings have allowed touchdowns on 59.2% of opponent red zone attempts. I wouldn’t expect another perfect showing in the red zone by the Rams offense tonight in Glendale.

On the other hand, the Vikings went 2-4 in the red zone against the Rams, which was just under their season average of 55.7% and in line with the Rams’ opponent average of 50%.

The Vikings were also just 28% on third-down conversions in the week eight matchup, well below their average and that allowed by the Rams defense this season. Doing better on third down could lead to more scoring opportunities for the Vikings. On the other hand, the Rams went 5-11 on 3rd and 4th down (1-1 on 4th down) which was above their 36.8% average and the 35.6% average allowed by the Vikings.

A return to season averages would favor the Vikings and likely propel the Vikings to a modest victory over the Rams. That would seem more likely given the change in personnel for the Vikings and change in venue. There hasn’t been any big changes in personnel compared to week eight for the Rams.

The Vikings have significant advantages over the Rams in most major metrics like total DVOA, net EPA, point differential (the Rams actually have a negative point differential, which is rare for a playoff team), turnover margin, passer rating margin, points per play margin, and both actual and estimated wins. Playing at a neutral site, a game resembling season averages for both teams would result in a Vikings victory.

The betting line suggests a 25-22.5 victory for the Vikings, given the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites and the 47.5 over/under point total. I wouldn’t be surprised with an outcome not too dissimilar than that.