Are you going to gamble on the game?
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), 4:30 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-5/Total: 45.5
What is the line telling you:
Originally, the look-ahead line for this game had the Eagles as a three-point home favorites. However, there’s been significant early action on Philly in both the offshore and Vegas markets, which has forced oddsmakers to adjust the line by a full two points to Eagles minus-5. When handicapping this game, the Eagles appear to be the healthier team heading into Sunday, with a plus-11 health advantage on pass defense. I’m expecting Jalen Hurts to bounce back strong after his concussion and deliver a solid performance. I’ve bet over 211.5 passing yards for Hurts.
Bottom line:
As for betting a side, the Eagles have consistently outperformed market expectations this season, going 11-6 ATS (64.7%). Meanwhile, the Packers finished 9-8 ATS (52.9%), but five of their six losses were by five points or less. Historically, the Packers excel as underdogs of games of three or more points, boasting a 15-2 ATS record in their last 17 games in this spot. While I believe the Eagles will win, Green Bay’s defense has been impressive. They’ve allowed the third-fewest yards per carry this season, rank 7th overall in EPA, and are 5th in defensive opponent rushing success rate in the second half of the season. Take the Packers and the points.
Plays:
Green Bay Packers plus-5
7-Point Teaser: Eagles +2/Under 52.5
Prop bets for the game
Jalen Hurts over 211.5 passing yards
Saquon Barkley under 104.5 rushing yards
Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-130)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-125)
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
