I’m not the biggest fan of game previews, mainly because I don’t have the time to watch even more film during the season. But it’s the playoffs! Let’s get into the Green Bay Packers, starting with the offense.
Full disclosure: I struggle with previews because there’s simply too much to talk about. I could go on forever. So, I won’t break this down into strengths and weaknesses. I’m just going to give a bunch of thoughts about the Packers after watching as much film as possible and looking at the stats. I use a bunch of stats in this one, and credit goes to Team Rankings, PFF, and Sports Info Solutions. Also, I spoke to @RichjMadrid and @DustyEvely about some areas to focus on, so shout out to those two.
Packers Offense
- This is a run-first offense. And it’s a good offense. The Packers do a good job marrying the run game to the pass game and will frequently have backside bubble screens attached to their running plays to make it tough on opposing linebackers. Expect to see a lot of motion and shifts to create misdirection in the run game, too.
The Eagles are not the only team with a superstar at running back. I think Josh Jacobs is outstanding. I went back and watched all of the Packers’ explosive runs from this year, and his ability to break tackles and create is a big reason why the running game has been so good this year.
The running game isn’t predictable, either. You will see many zone and gap scheme concepts. Outside zone is run a lot, but the Packers love to pull a guard to create angles in the running game, too. I saw quite a few 2-back sets, which is something the Eagles haven’t dealt with much this year either.
Keep an eye on Jayden Reed on jet sweeps. He had a big run against the Eagles in week 1, and they will use him to create a horizontal stretch a lot. He runs a lot of jet motion, but you have to respect it because he may keep it, and he can make people miss in the open field!
I still see outside zone as the Packers’ staple run game, but it’s more varied than I thought. I expect them to challenge the Eagles with some outside zone early on.
The Packers run a lot of screen passes, and they use them to set up plays down the field, too. This was one of my favorite ones I saw on film. Fake the screen to both sides before throwing it to the tight end, who releases it into the middle of the field. You will have to be really disciplined as a defense to stop this.
The passing game is a mixed bag. Jordan Love is an excellent young quarterback who can be outstanding on his day but is also prone to mistakes and can force the ball a bit. Love is an elite talent, but he’s not played up to his potential this year. However, if he plays up to his potential, he could cause the Eagles’ defense many problems.
The Packers’ receiving group doesn’t scare me without Christian Watson. Jayden Reed is their best receiver but has struggled at the catch point this year. He has had 10 drops this year, and Dontayvion Wicks has had 8. It’s a very inconsistent passing game due to the somewhat erratic play of Jordan Love and the receiving group.
However, Jayden Reed is an absolute freak down the field. I saw these numbers and almost could not believe them. Reed has been targetted 15 times this year on deep throws (20+ yards) and has 12 receptions for 478 yards. That is insane. He is 7/8 on deep throws to the outside left for 272 yards. That’s one of the most absurd stats I’ve ever seen. Jordan Love averages 8.2 YPA, which ranks 4th in the league. Christian Watson is a big reason why this number is so high, so he will be missed, but Jayden Reed is a huge factor.
As I stated above, they love these deep over shots! These routes are more effective against man coverage, so they may struggle to hit these shots against the Eagles’ zone match.
Some final quick points…
- The Packers have a good offensive line in both pass protection and the run game.
- Jayden Reed plays 75% of his snaps in the slot. I expect Cooper DeJean to get physical with him at the line of scrimmage and disrupt the timing.
- The Eagles may want to get Quinyon Mitchell pressing at the line of scrimmage because the Packers’ receivers can struggle to get off the line.
Overall
I think the Packers’ offense is a little hit or miss. They will miss Christian Watson, as the depth at wide receiver isn’t great. They have top 5 potential, but they have been too erratic this year which has led to them running the ball a lot. I think the Eagles’ defense matches up really well with this offense, and I think the defense should go into this one feeling confident. However, Jordan Love is a bit of an enigma who can do crazy things. If he has one of those games where he turns it on, the Packers could be tough to stop.
Defense
This will be a little quicker, as I spent most of my time on the offense!
I don’t think this defense is super-talented, but it is well-coached. Although it doesn’t have many ‘big names,’ it ranks highly in several categories. It feels like it is coached above its talent level by using a lot of post-snap rotation, disguised coverage, and stopping the run on early downs. It’s an aggressive defense that will try to take the football away.
The Vikings had some success going down the field against this defense, and they targeted rookie safety Javon Bullard. As I said above, they do try to disguise their coverages and use quite a lot of post-safety rotation, which makes it quite a hard defense for a rookie safety. The Eagles might try to target him down the field in this one.
Where the defense shines is its run defense. They don’t stack the box and usually stop the run out of a 4-man front and a light box, which is impressive. It helps when you have Rashan Gary, one of the best EDGE rushers against the run in the NFL. I would be running away from him or trying to get Landon Dickerson or Mekhi Becton to pull into him.
Some quick final thoughts…
- The pass rush is pretty inconsistent. I would expect this Eagles’ offensive line to give Jalen Hurts a lot of time in the pocket.
- The Lions killed them with deep in breaking routes over the middle of the field. This isn’t a strength of Jalen Hurts or this offense, but they have shown they are willing to do this more this year.
- Xavier McKinney is excellent on the back end. They play some Tampa 2 and use him to fly downhill as a hook defender. It’s easy for this coverage to look like cover 3, and you need to be careful not to throw it right at him.
Overall
This is a good defense, but the Eagles are more talented on offense. If the Eagles’ offense plays well, they should be able to score on this defense. This may be a game where you come out throwing, wear down the Packers, and then run it in the second half. Saquon Barkley, in the second half this year, has 186 rushes for 1245 yards. That’s 6.7 yards per rush. The Packers’ run defense is excellent, but can it stop Barkley?
Conclusion
These may be the most basic stats you can view, but they tell a story: this is a good Packers team.
I think the Eagles are the better team, and they match up well with this Packers team, which makes me optimistic. However, I am nervous about this one. I didn’t want to play the Packers because I greatly respect the offensive coaching staff, Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and Jayden Reed. I expect it to be close, but I am optimistic that this Eagles team will get it done.
If you want even more on the Packers, I broke down a bunch more stats in this week’s podcast!
If you want more, I’ll be posting daily thoughts on Discord, which is attached to my Patreon. You can find the link here, as well as more of my work and podcast here.
