How the Current NFL Playoff Field Compares to Past Super Bowl Champions

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs as the fifth-seed in the NFC tournament, coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions but with a 14-3 record, which is among the best winning percentages in any NFL season. All that creates a bit of a mixed picture for the Vikings as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

But what really matters when it comes to Super Bowl champion teams? Looking back at some of the stats of Super Bowl winning teams over the past twenty years paints a clearer picture of whether the Vikings are legitimate contenders and helps separate the contenders from the pretenders in this season’s field of playoff teams.

Key Metrics of Super Bowl Winning Teams Over the Past Twenty Seasons

The chart above shows a bunch of key metrics of Super Bowl champion teams over the past twenty years. It includes rankings and raw numbers for several different key metrics such as DVOA and other efficiency metrics, turnovers, passing-related metrics, playoff experience, and other strength of victory-related metrics.

There is no metric or set of metrics that determine which team will win the Super Bowl. There are several metrics that Super Bowl winning teams rank high in consistently, but football is not an exact science and I’m sure if there were metrics with perfect or near-perfect track records for predicting anything in pro football, someone would have found them by now.

But while Super Bowl winning teams have been consistent in being top ranked teams in several metrics, there were four times in the past twenty season when an outlier team won the Super Bowl. Those years are shaded gray. Additionally, the Chiefs the last two seasons have won despite being an outlier in turnover metrics (and really some passing metrics too) that are shaded gray as well as outliers.

The outlier teams were the two Giants teams of 2007 and 2011, the Ravens in 2012, and the Broncos in 2015. There is absolutely no metric that would have explained how the 2007 Giants, one of the worst teams to make it to the Super Bowl, beat the 2007 Patriots- which would easily have been named the best team of all-time had they won the Super Bowl that season. The 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens were also relatively weak teams that simply got hot in the playoffs after an above average but not particularly strong regular season. The 2015 Broncos were a dominant team defensively, which is not an outlier trait for Super Bowl winning teams, but statistically it was an outlier in many areas because Payton Manning was injured for much of the regular season, which led to relatively poor offensive stats, before coming back for the playoffs.

The reason I isolated those teams as outliers, along with the Chiefs turnovers the last two seasons, is because by excluding them in the 20-year average stats, there is a stronger correlation between Super Bowl winning teams and particular metrics. So, a good way to interpret the data is to say that 80% of the time, a Super Bowl winning team will be among the top teams in these metrics.

If you look at the right edge of the chart, I have compiled 20-year averages for each metric along with select averages, which exclude the shaded gray outliers. For the metrics that are rankings, those with the lowest average ranking (i.e. closest to 1) are those most correlated with champion teams (i.e. the Super Bowl winner is a top team in this metric).

Looking at it that way, Super Bowl winning teams over the past twenty years are top teams (but not always the top team) in the following metrics:

• Total DVOA. Super Bowl winning teams (not including the four outliers) have ranked no lower than seventh in total DVOA over the past twenty seasons.
• Points per Play Margin. This measures how many points per play a team scores, which is point-scoring efficiency, minus points per play allowed defensively. The result is a net efficiency metric that correlates the highest of all the metrics. The select average rank of Super Bowl winning teams being 3.3. Only once besides the four outliers has the Super Bowl winning team ranked outside the top six in this metric.
• Point Differential Rank. Team ranking in points scored less points allowed during the regular season. The select average rank not including the outliers is 3.4, and no Super Bowl winning team except the outliers has ranked worse than seventh in this metric.
• Estimated Wins Rank. This metric measures the probability that a team would win a game based on the actual circumstances that occurred during that game. Teams with higher estimated wins have produced results than typically lead to wins and therefore tend to be stronger teams excluding luck or unusual outcomes. The select average rank in this metric over twenty years is 3.4, and only three times in the last twenty seasons has a Super Bowl winning team (all of them outliers) ranked lower than seventh in this metric.
• Average In-Game Win Probability. This goes back only until 2015 but also correlates strongly with Super Bowl winning teams. It’s a measure of a team’s win probability based on the score, field position, time remaining, etc. during the course of the game. Stronger teams are often leading and therefore have a better win probability and are seldomly trailing by much- they’re also within striking distance of winning if not ahead. Super Bowl winning teams have ranked no worse than eighth in this metric and the select average is 3.4.
• Regular Season Win % Rank. It’s no secret that Super Bowl winning teams tend to have won most of their games. Only three times in the past twenty years has a Super Bowl winning team had a regular season winning percentage rank lower than seventh, and the select average is 3.4. Additionally, the actual regular season winning percentage of Super Bowl winning teams has averaged .731 over the past twenty years, with the select average just over .750.
• Opponent Passer Rating Allowed. This one isn’t a ranking but you’ll notice that only twice in the past twenty years has a Super Bowl winning team allowed an opponent passer rating above the mid-80s and the average is below 80. The two exceptions occurred in more recent years, but a playoff team allowing a passer rating above 90 is a bit of a red flag.
• Playoff Experience. Most Super Bowl winning teams didn’t come out of nowhere to win it without having been to the playoffs the previous year. 80% of the time over the past twenty years the Super Bowl winning team had been in the playoffs the previous year.

How the Current Playoff Field Stacks Up

Of course, just because a team isn’t an outlier in any of the above metrics doesn’t mean they will win the Super Bowl. Other teams in the playoffs may also not be outliers.

But teams that are outliers in more metrics are less and less likely to win the Super Bowl 80% of the time, looking at the past twenty Super Bowl champions.

The chart above shows how each team in the current postseason tournament stacks up to past Super Bowl champions in the same metrics as the first chart. The numbers in red represent outliers. There are only two teams that don’t have any outliers: the Lions and Eagles. The Vikings and Ravens have just two, and the Packers and Bills have three. Those six teams stack up as legitimate Super Bowl contenders judging by past Super Bowl champions.

The Chiefs might also be considered a legitimate contender based on their pedigree and the fact that they’ve managed to win the last two Super Bowls despite some significant outliers and given they have the easiest path to the conference championship it would seem.

Overall, it’s probably not that insightful that the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings have the best chance on paper to win the NFC title and the Bills and Ravens the best chance on paper to win the AFC title.

But it’s important to note that the team with the best metrics doesn’t always win. Last season, for example, the Ravens were #1 in every major metric- DVOA, estimated wins, point differential, and points per play margin. But they lost to the Chiefs, who ranked between third and sixth in those metrics, at home. Similarly, the Cowboys ranked between second and fourth in those major metrics but lost to the Packers- who were outliers in just about every one- at home.

Matchups Matter

This year, in the AFC it would seem both the Ravens and Bills have easy wild card games that will likely set them up for a divisional round matchup, while the cold weather Chiefs will host a warm weather team in the divisional round, giving them a much easier path to the conference championship.

The NFC is a bit more evenly matched and therefore more difficult to predict how it will play out.

On paper, the Rams are the weakest team in the field with several red flags: 17th in DVOA, a negative point differential, and poor efficiency, passing, and strength of victory metrics generally. Most of that has to do with a weak defense, which hasn’t been as impacted by injuries as the offense has been. And they don’t have any strong metrics to offset the weak ones. That would seem to bode well for the Vikings’ chances, but the Rams did beat the Vikings earlier in the season, so there’s that.

The Bucs and Commanders look fairly similar on paper as well across all metrics, with a better offense than defense. The Bucs have playoff experience and home field advantage, and they beat the Commanders the first week of the season and had a tougher schedule, but the Commanders have the better record. Overall, the Bucs look better positioned to advance, given they had a tougher schedule and have already beaten three NFC playoff teams this season- the Lions, Eagles, and Commanders. But it could be a close game.

The Packers are not as weak on paper compared to the Eagles as you would expect in a matchup between second and seventh seeds. The Eagles have the better record but also had a much easier schedule in opponent DVOA terms. The Packers lost to the Eagles week one in Brazil, but it was a close game and the rematch could be too.

A Negative Indicator

Overall, how the current field of playoff teams compares to previous Super Bowl champions serves as more of a negative indicator, ruling out teams that are more likely pretenders than identifying the champion.

In that sense, the Rams, Bucs, Commanders, Texans, Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos look like the pretenders in this postseason tournament and are unlikely to advance past the division round at best.

Seeding as Probability

In terms of playoff seeding, over the past twenty seasons the first seed has won the Super Bowl seven times, the second or third seed six times, and the fourth, fifth, or sixth seed seven times. So roughly a third of the time for each group, although the later groups represent two- and three-times as many teams. The seventh seed, a more recent addition to the playoffs, has never won the Super Bowl. It’s interesting that after a stretch of five years when the first seed won the Super Bowl every year, a top seeded team has only won it once in the past six seasons. And a first, second, third, fourth, and fifth seeded team have all won the Super Bowl in the last five years. That has to be a first in the Super Bowl era. You’d have thought that first seeds would win even more often since 2020, when the format changed so only first seeds get a first-round bye, but that hasn’t been the case. The first seed win rate has actually decreased, although still a small sample size.

How the Vikings Stack Up

There is no question the Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders that could win it all. They would rank on the low side of normal in some metrics if they won the Super Bowl but wouldn’t be an outlier.

The only real outliers for the Vikings are their point differential rank, even though their actual point differential is low but not really an outlier at 100. The other is their lack of previous year playoff experience, but they made the playoffs two seasons ago and coaches and most current starters all have playoff experience.

Looking up and down at all the metrics, the Vikings and Eagles compare very similarly all the way down the line, despite different styles on both sides of the ball. It’s worth noting however that the Eagles have played a much easier schedule measured by DVOA of opponents. But they’ve also gone 5-2 against playoff teams this season. The Vikings are 3-3.

The Lions are the best team on paper in this season’s playoff field, but it wouldn’t be much of an upset if either the Eagles or Vikings, or even the Packers, beat them. Similarly, it wouldn’t be much of an upset if the Bills or Ravens beat them either. In more recent years, the strongest team on paper hasn’t won the Super Bowl. The last time that happened was the 2016 Patriots.

In terms of matchups, the Vikings got a favorable draw on paper in the wild card round with the Rams. The road venue isn’t particularly hostile either, and could even move to a neutral site if the wildfires continue nearby. But again, the Rams beat them earlier in the season, although the Vikings were traveling on a short week and were surprised by the late activation of Puca Nakua from IR, the Rams’ top wide receiver.

Should the Vikings advance, they would most likely face either the Eagles or Lions, with a small chance of facing the Commanders at home if both Washington and Green Bay win on Sunday. Both the Eagles and Lions would be formidable matchups on the road, and most likely the Vikings would have to beat both of them to advance to the Super Bowl. And then most likely either the Ravens, Bills, or defending champion Chiefs to win it.

That’s a tall order for any team. But every year one team emerges from the crucible as the Super Bowl champion. Could it be the Vikings this year? Sure. They fit the profile of past Super Bowl champions. They’ll need to play a lot better than they did last Sunday at Detroit, but stranger things have happened.

Poll

Which team will win the Super Bowl this season?

• 18%

  Lions

  (7 votes)

• 5%

  Eagles

  (2 votes)

• 0%

  Bucanneers

  (0 votes)

• 36%

  Vikings

  (14 votes)

• 0%

  Commanders

  (0 votes)

• 0%

  Packers

  (0 votes)

• 21%

  Chiefs

  (8 votes)

• 7%

  Bills

  (3 votes)

• 10%

  Ravens

  (4 votes)

• 0%

  Texans

  (0 votes)

• 0%

  Chargers

  (0 votes)

• 0%

  Steelers

  (0 votes)

• 0%

  Broncos

  (0 votes)

38 votes total

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