Detroit Lions lead NFL in analytically-sound 4th down decisions

Dan Campbell has a better case for Coach of the Year because of his sound decision-making on fourth down.

As voters submit their votes for the NFL’s 2024 Coach of the Year, let me offer one final piece of evidence in support of Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell. Much has been made about how Campbell manages a game, particularly his propensity of going for it on fourth down—sometimes in unconventional situations. I use the word unconventional because some people incorrectly use the terms “risky,” “bold,” or even “reckless.”

However, one analytical model suggests Campbell’s fourth down aggression is actually far more sound and safe than the rest of the NFL. Ben Baldwin has a very popular Fourth Down Bot, which uses an analytical model to determine if each fourth down decision optimizes the team’s win probability using a ton a factors, including down, distance, game score, and time remaining. Baldwin keeps the data of each decision a team makes, and, lo and behold, no one is making a higher percentage of analytically-sound decisions than the Detroit Lions on fourth down over the past two seasons, and especially 2024:

This is important to point out, because far too many fans and analysts conflate Campbell’s aggression with being risky or irresponsible. In fact, Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson roasted Campbell just this past week on FOX’s pregame show, suggesting that his tactics may work against bad regular season teams, but won’t in the playoffs. After Detroit’s loss in the NFC Championship game last year, Campbell was heavily criticized for his fourth down aggression, which resulted in two failed fourth-down conversions against the San Francisco 49ers.

But it’s important to point out the larger picture of what Campbell is doing. There will be failures along the way—that’s the nature of every fourth down decision. However, if you’re talking about playing the odds, Campbell has the numbers in his favor more often than not. And all it takes to see the benefit of those decisions is to look back on Sunday night’s game against the Vikings. Yes, they failed one fourth down conversion that gave Minnesota good field position, but on the other two fourth down attempts, Detroit turned field goal opportunities into touchdowns. That’s a big net win for the Lions and a big reason they’ll be spending the Wild Card round of the playoffs at home, while the Vikings—18th in “correct” fourth down decision making rate—will be in Los Angeles to face the Rams.