The Minnesota Vikings had their worst offensive performance of the season against the Detroit Lions on Sunday night, falling 31-9 in the biggest game of the season and losing the division title and first seed in the process. It was a disappointing loss to a division and playoff rival that took away their momentum heading into the playoffs.
But the Vikings will need to choke down the loss and transition quickly to the Rams and their Monday night matchup. But there are some lessons to be learned from their defeat in Detroit that should help them in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at them.
Sam Darnold’s First “Playoff” Game Jitters
Sunday night’s regular season finale in Detroit was a playoff game in most respects from a player standpoint. There was a lot on the line, it was clearly a playoff atmosphere, and both teams were playoff caliber. And for Sam Darnold, despite this being his seventh season in the league, this was his first experience of the playoffs and all that goes with it.
And it showed.
Darnold started the game a little keyed up, and that caused him to sail some key throws high while also being less decisive as he moved through his progressions. The first two drives ended on throws that were high to an open T.J. Hockenson, but there were many other inaccurate throws by Darnold on Sunday night. It didn’t help that the Lions blitzed him frequently, reducing his processing time, and rattling him as he faced pressure and tight man coverage most of the evening.
All that led to off the charts inaccuracy from Darnold, who completed only 43.9% of his passes on Sunday night. His adjusted completion percentage, which adjusts for drops, throwaways, and batted balls, was just 57.1%. His season average prior to the Lions’ game was over 78% and one of the best among starting quarterbacks.
After the game, Darnold was asked about his performance and he said he simply needed to make the throws, most of them ones he’s made many times before and are routine for him.
It’s not uncommon for a quarterback to come out uncharacteristically bad in his first playoff game, and that’s what happened to Darnold. The key for him is to benefit from the experience and not let it happen again. It should help that his first real playoff game is in LA, his hometown, and one of the least imposing venues for opposing teams from a crowd standpoint.
While it was a costly loss for the Vikings, giving them the fifth seed instead of the first seed, it didn’t end their season. In that sense, it’s better to have had this experience week 18 of the regular season instead of the first round of the playoffs. It may also have been helpful for many other Vikings’ players who have never experienced the playoffs- and there are many of those.
Upon Review
Watching the game a second time, the story of the game was missed opportunities for the Vikings. The narrative during the game, especially late, was that the Lions were playing so well, even defensively, which carried them to victory. Their blitzes and man coverage were really having an impact. But it was really the Vikings failing to make plays that were there offensively, and a couple special teams, and one defensively as well that made the difference. It was those miscues- and the team that makes the most mistakes are usually the ones that lose playoff games- which cost the Vikings in this game.
Here are the most prominent ones:
- Poor throw/catch on 3rd down on Vikings’ first offensive drive. T.J. Hockenson was open on an out route but the throw was a bit high and went off of Hockenson’s hands. It was 3rd and 9 and Hockenson was open on an out route but Darnold’s pass was a bit high, although Hockenson had a chance to catch it but went off his outstretched hands.
- Poor throw sailed over Hockenson on 3rd down to end the Vikings’ second offensive drive. Darnold got the Vikings in a big hole by taking a sack that he should’ve avoided by throwing the ball away on first down, which ultimately resulted in 3rd and 17. Hockenson was wide open on a seam route but Darnold sailed the throw over his head, missing out on 3rd down conversion and even bigger gain.
- Going 0/4 in the red zone. Each time the Vikings were in the red zone, there were open guys for touchdowns, in some cases on multiple plays. In a couple cases Darnold missed or passed up an open receiver, other times his throws were inaccurate, and one time Jefferson should’ve caught a pass that was high but went off his hands for a drop.
- 3rd down drop by Jefferson later in the game. Later in the second half Jefferson was targeted on 3rd down between two defenders but dropped the pass. He would’ve had to make a move to get the first down- and you could see he was planning to and probably would have- but he failed to secure the catch first.
- Missed field goal by Will Reichard and kick out of bounds near the end of the first half. Those two miscues by Reichard resulted in a net -6 point margin for the Vikings.
- Dropped interception by Andrew Van Ginkel. It was a great play by Van Ginkel to get his hands on a wide receiver screen, in what has become his signature move, but he failed to secure the ball for an interception that he may also have returned for a pick six. The score was 17-9 at the time.
There were more than enough points missed in all these miscues for the Vikings to have won the game had they simply been able to execute on the opportunities presented to them by the Lions. More than that, had the Vikings been able to take advantage of those opportunities, most of which occurred in the first half, the momentum and flow of the game would have been altered in their favor, likely taking the Lions out of their game plan and putting the Vikings in an advantageous, rather than disadvantageous, game situation in the second half.
The Lions didn’t do anything particularly unusual offensively and the Vikings held them to 10-points well into the third quarter, including producing two turnovers and a 4th-down stop, which was playing well enough to win. But the failures on offense and special teams began to affect morale and eventually wear down the defense allowing the Lions offense to win going away. Had the Vikings been able to convert those earlier opportunities, they would’ve been playing with the lead, perhaps even a substantial lead, late in the game putting the pressure on the Lions offense rather than being worn down.
Overall, Darnold’s performance in this game was most reminiscent of the Jets game earlier in the season, where he had similar adjusted completion % and passer rating and faced a lot of man coverage and pressure from the Jets’ defense. Darnold has been one of the better quarterbacks against man coverage this season, so it’s not like the Lions defense exposed a weakness of Darnold’s, he just had a bad game.
Preparing for the Rams and the Playoffs
While most of the Vikings’ players don’t have much playoff experience, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores have both won Super Bowls as coordinators. Flores most recently in 2018 with the Patriots and O’Connell with the fourth-seed Rams in 2021.
It’s interesting that in O’Connell’s 2021 Super Bowl run as offensive coordinator, they lost twice to their division rival 49ers during the regular season, including in week 18. However, they would later go on to beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
In any case, Kevin O’Connell, Wes Phillips, and Brian Flores have Super Bowls rings and know what it takes and how to prepare for the playoffs.
The Vikings face a similar situation as their previous loss to the Lions, in that they face the LA Rams on the road in a prime time night game. The big difference is this one is on Monday night, where the previous one was on Thursday night, giving the Vikings a short week to recover and prepare.
This time, the Vikings will have a full week plus to recover and prepare. Of course that will include the usual prep for third downs, red zone, and four- and two-minute drills, but perhaps more emphasis on the red zone this week as the Vikings struggled so much in that part of the game against the Lions.
Obviously the Vikings and Rams have played each other already this season, so there is that tape to watch, but being back in October, a lot has changed for both teams since then that both sides will have to evaluate. Clearly Kevin O’Connell and Sean McVay know each other well, so it’s unlikely they’ll surprise each other on the offensive side of the ball, but whatever they may have available and previously not on tape could be helpful during the course of the game on Monday night.
Similarly, the Vikings defense will need to make adjustments to their first game plan against the Rams to keep them guessing and off-balance while also playing to their strengths.
Sam Darnold has a 128.8 passer rating and 78.3 QBR in his last meeting against the Rams, one of his better performances despite the loss. The main difference was in the red zone, where the Rams went 3/3 while the Vikings were 2/4.
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The Vikings are 1.5 road favorites against the Rams. Will they bounce back and win?
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