A look at every possible playoff scenario for the Detroit Lions heading in Week 18 of the 2024 season.
By now, you likely know the stakes for the Detroit Lions’ regular season finale. If they beat the Minnesota Vikings, they claim the NFC’s top seed and earn a first round bye in the NFL playoffs. If they lose, they drop all the way to the fifth seed, and will have to go on the road in the Wild Card round of the postseason.
But let’s dig a little deeper than that. Let’s look at every possible scenario the Lions could be looking at in the first round of the playoffs—from watching at home during a first-round bye to another potential rematch with Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
First, here’s a look at the NFC playoff picture as it stands going into Week 18.
Division leaders
- Lions: 14-2 — clinched playoff spot
- Eagles: 13-3 — clinched #2 seed
- Rams: 10-6 — clinched NFC West
- Buccaneers: 9-7
Wild card race (top three advance)
5. Vikings: 14-2 — clinched playoff spot
6. Commanders: 11-5 — clinched playoff spot
7. Packers: 11-5 — clinched playoff spot
Still alive:
Falcons: 8-8
As you can see, six of the seven playoff spots have been claimed, with the only exception being the NFC South division winner. That’s a key spot because if the Lions lose, they’ll hold the No. 5 seed and face the No. 4 seed in the first round of the playoffs. That could be the NFC South winner (Buccaneers or Falcons), or it could be the Rams. Let’s break down each possible scenario.
If the Lions beat or tie the Vikings…
They’ll have the No. 1 seed in the conference and have a bye week during the Wild Card round of the playoffs. In the next (divisional) round, Detroit would face off against the lowest-seeded team remaining. The only guarantee is that they wouldn’t face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, as they are locked into the No. 2 seed. Any other playoff opponent is a possible Round 2 matchup.
If the Lions lose to the Vikings…
They’ll be the fifth overall seed and face off against the No. 4 seed. Here are those specific scenarios:
The Lions will play the Buccaneers if…
- Lions lose to Vikings
- Rams beat Seahawks
- Buccaneers beat Saints OR Falcons lose to Panthers
In this scenario, the Rams maintain the No. 3 seed and the Buccaneers win the NFC South, but remain the four seed. The top five seeds would look like this:
- Vikings: 15-2
- Eagles: 14-3 or 13-4
- Rams: 11-6
- Buccaneers: 10-7
- Lions: 14-3
The Buccaneers would also clinch the division—even if they lost—if the Falcons lose to the Panthers.
The Lions will play the Rams if…
- Lions lose to Vikings
- Rams lose to Seahawks
- Buccaneers beat Saints
That would leave the standings:
- Vikings: 15-2
- Eagles: 14-3 or 13-4
- Buccaneers: 10-7
- Rams: 10-7
- Lions: 14-3
In this scenario, the Rams and Buccaneers both win their divisions, but are tied in overall record. The Buccaneers take over the three seed because they have a better conference record.
Now, while it may not seem like the Rams would lose to a Seahawks team that is out of the playoff race, it’s worth noting that LA coach Sean McVay has already said they will be resting starters, including Stafford. It will be Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the Rams. Meanwhile, it doesn’t appear that the Seahawks will be resting anyone, despite the game being essentially meaningless for them.
Obviously, both the Falcons and Buccaneers will be playing starters, as they have yet to clinch a playoff spot.
The Lions will play the Falcons if…
- Lions lose to Vikings
- Buccaneers lose to Saints
- Falcons beat Panthers
- (Rams/Seahawks game outcome wouldn’t matter)
And the standings would look like:
- Vikings: 15-2
- Eagles: 14-3 or 13-4
- Rams: 11-6 or 10-7
- Falcons: 9-8
- Lions: 14-3
The Falcons and Buccaneers would be tied in overall record at 9-8, but the Falcons swept the Buccaneers in head-to-head matchups, meaning they would take the division and the No. 4 seed. As you can see, the Falcons can’t reach the No. 3 seed no matter what the Rams do this weekend.
It’s worth noting that the Falcons and Buccaneers both play in the 1 p.m. ET spot on Sunday. That means we’ll know who the NFC South winner is by the time the 4 p.m. ET games start. The Seahawks and Rams kick off 4:25 p.m. ET, which could decide whether the NFC South winner will be the three seed or the fourth seed.
With the Lions and Vikings not playing until Sunday night, we’ll know which team the loser will have to face by kickoff.
