The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will play the last game of the regular season in what amounts to the regular season NFC championship. The winner will take the crown of the best division in the NFL, the NFC North, the first seed in the NFC postseason tournament, a first-round bye, and home field advantage throughout said tournament. The loser will become the fifth seed and travel for a road game in the wild card round against the fourth seed, most likely the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last Game of the NFL Regular Season

After the Vikings beat the Packers, it was a no-brainer that the league made the Vikings-Lions game, whose date and time were still TBD, the big prime time game of the last weekend of the regular season, making it the Sunday Night Football finale.

The Philadelphia Eagles being out of the competition for the #1 seed with their loss last weekend to the Commanders contributed to make that possible, as the league needs to manage game times so team(s) aren’t advantaged by knowing the outcome of a game the same weekend prior to starting their own game.

But with only the Lions and Vikings remaining in competition for the top seed in the NFC, the league could make it the final game of the regular season and the one with the highest stakes.

For All the NFC Regular Season Marbles

At the beginning of the season, every team has a regular season goal of winning their division and gaining the top seed in the playoff tournament. That’s the most a team can achieve in the regular season. But after 17 weeks, only two teams in the NFC can still achieve that goal: the Vikings and Lions.

That’s what makes this final game of the regular season historic. Often times the top seed has been decided prior to the final week of the regular season, as is the case in the AFC this season, or if not the teams in contention are almost never playing each other given the last games of the season have been divisional games for many years now and most often both division teams are not in contention for the top seed on the last week of the regular season.

I’m not sure if two teams from the same division have ever played for the top seed in the playoffs on the final weekend of the regular season, let alone two teams that enter the game with .875 or better winning percentages. My guess is this is a first. It’s definitely the first time two teams with 13 or more wins have met in the regular season.

And it’s clearly the most important game of the 127 times the Lions and Vikings will have played each other.

Winner Gets the Top Seed, the Loser Hits the Road

I’ve not been a fan of the division system in the NFL for a while now, as it should really be a conference-based seeding system since it’s a conference-based playoff tournament. The seven teams with the best records should get the top seven seeds. But that’s an article for another day.

The bottom line with this final game of the regular season between the two teams with the best records in the conference is that one will get the top seed and all those benefits, and the other will get the fifth seed and effectively be moved to the consolation wild-card bracket with a chance to play back on the road to the championship game.

Meanwhile the nine or ten win NFC South division winner- also the worst division in the NFC- gains a home game and no worse than a fourth seed. Go figure.

Dan Campbell Plans on Playing Starters Against 49ers

The Vikings beating the Packers has made the Lions game on Monday night against the 49ers nearly meaningless. The outcome of that game would only matter in the event the Lions and Vikings tied next Sunday night, which never happens anymore.

Nevertheless, Lions head coach Dan Campbell, despite the Lions suffering a lot of season-ending and other significant injuries this season, said he will go full bore in the 49ers game regardless of if it’s meaningless or not, presumably meaning he’ll play all his starters as if it was a meaningful game. That’s a choice.

Clearly Campbell values and sticks to his style of play and coaching, which has changed the culture in Detroit where no other has been able to do so for several decades, so nobody can blame him for that. But if the Lions suffer another major injury against the 49ers, some criticism would be warranted for hurting the team’s chances at postseason success in a meaningless game. We’ll see what happens tomorrow night. He may quietly take a more nuanced approach to protect his starters over the course of the evening, especially if the game is in-hand.

Pre-Season David and Goliath

Another storyline for this game is the David and Goliath angle. At the beginning of the season, the Vikings were expected to finish a distant last in the division, with a 6.5 over/under win total- two games lower than even the Bears. Only the Carolina Panthers had a lower over/under win total than the Vikings in the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions were the clear favorites to win the division and had the second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFC behind the 49ers. Clearly the Lions haven’t disappointed and their odds to win the division, first seed, conference championship and Super Bowl have only shortened as the season progressed.

But the lowly Vikings with a washed-up bust of a quarterback now have shocked the world with what is now the best record in the conference and a real shot at the top seed and all the marbles entering the playoffs.

Managing the Demolition Derby

The Lions, while holding steady in the win-loss column, have been taking a lot of hits in the six-month demolition derby that is the NFL season and postseason. The Vikings have fared relatively well in that respect, which often correlates to postseason success.

Since their last meeting in October, the Vikings have lost starter Christian Darrisaw, while getting back starters T.J. Hockenson and Blake Cashman. Dalton Risner has also replaced Ed Ingram at right guard.

For the Lions, they’ve lost Alim McNeil, Alex Anzalone, David Montgomery, Carlton Davis, Ennis Rakestraw, Kalif Raymond, Malcolm Rodriquez, Khalil Dorsey, and Mekhi Wingo since last the Vikings played the Lions. McNeil, Montgomery, and Davis are the most recent hits- and also their best players that have been sidelined since Aiden Hutchinson broke his leg early in the season.

Undoubtedly those injuries, and additions, will have an unquantifiable effect on the outcome of Sunday night’s clash. Playing at Ford Field instead of US Bank stadium will too.

Stay tuned.

Follow me on X and Bluesky @wludford

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