Why I think the Detroit Lions will finally get some help via the Packers beating the Vikings.
As I’m sure you’re aware of by now, the Detroit Lions could clinch the NFC No. 1 seed by Monday night. The scenario is simple: first, they need the Green Bay Packers to defeat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX — nationally televised). Then the Lions need to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.” That’s it.
Any other outcome, and both the NFC North and the No. 1 seed will be decided in Week 18 when the Lions take on the Vikings.
Detroit has taken care of business all year, but in a high-competitive division, they have not gotten very much help from other outcomes. Does that finally change this week?
Today’s Question of the Day is:
Will the Packers finally give the Lions some help by beating the Vikings?
My answer: I think they will, and I’ll put this as simply as possible:
I think the Packers are a better team than the Vikings.
When you look at some all-encompassing statistics, the two teams are both undoubtedly good and undoubtedly evenly-matched. The Packers are third in DVOA, the Vikings are sixth. The Packers are eighth in EPA/play and fourth in EPA allowed/play. The Vikings are 10th and first, respectively.
But if you narrow these stats from Week 10 and beyond—to get a grasp of how these teams are playing right now—it highlights just how hot the Packers are.
Since Week 10, the Packers are:
- 1st in overall DVOA
- 3rd in offensive DVOA
- 2nd in defensive DVOA
- 3rd in EPA/play
- 4th in success rate
- 2nd in EPA/play allowed (defense)
- 7th in success rate allowed
Meanwhile, the Vikings rank:
- 8th in overall DVOA
- 13th in offensive DVOA
- 9th in defensive DVOA
- 9th in EPA/play
- 8th in success rate
- 7th in EPA/play allowed (defense)
- 9th in success rate allowed
I know the Packers don’t have much motivation to win—they’re only fighting for seeding between five and seven—but this is the NFL. Playoff teams don’t take a week off. Give me the Packers by a touchdown.
How do you think the game will play out? Vote in the poll below and share why in the comment section at the bottom of the page.
