NFC playoff picture update: No. 1 seed to be decided in Lions, Vikings finale

The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will face off in Week 18 with the NFC North and a first-round playoff bye on the line.

As we’ve seen week after week after week, the Detroit Lions did not got the help they wanted from the outcomes of other games, and that means it’ll be on them to earn the NFC North crown and first-round bye on their own.

With the Minnesota Vikings’ win over the Green Bay Packers, the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC will be on the line next week when the Lions take on the Vikings at Ford Field. Here’s a look at the updated NFC playoff picture, with “Sunday Night Football” and “Monday Night Football” in Week 17 still pending.

NFC playoff standings

1. Vikings: 14-2
2. Eagles: 13-3 — Clinched NFC East, No. 2 seed
3. Rams: 10-6
4. Buccaneers: 9-7
5. Lions: 13-2 — Clinched playoff spot
6. Packers: 11-5 — Clinched playoff spot
7. Commanders: 10-5

In the hunt:

8. Seahawks: 9-7
9. Falcons: 8-7

Why are the Vikings No. 1?

Well, because they have the best record at this exact moment (14-2 vs. 13-2). If the Lions beat the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, Detroit will slide back into the No. 1 seed heading into the final week, as they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings.

Does Lions vs. 49ers matter anymore?

No, not really. If the Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18, they will win the NFC North and the No. 1 seed regardless of what happens against the 49ers.

The only way the 49ers game will matter is if the Lions and Vikings tie in Week 18. For example:

• Lions lose to 49ers
• Lions tie Vikings
• Lions finish 13-3-1, Vikings finish 14-2-1 — Vikings win the NFC North, Lions move to 5-seed

OR

• Lions beat 49ers
• Lions tie Vikings
• Lions and Vikings both finish 14-2-1 — Lions win NFC North and 1 seed due to head-to-head tiebreaker

Will Lions vs. Vikings move to “Sunday Night Football”?

Almost certainly, yes. The only other game that seemingly has high stakes in Week 18 is Rams vs. Seahawks. However, if the Commanders or 49ers win on Sunday night or Monday night, respectively, the Rams will clinch the NFC West and that Week 18 game won’t matter. Bengals vs. Steelers is another possible flex, but Cincinnati still needs a few more Week 18 results to go in their favor to even have a chance at the postseason.

Despite all of that, the NFL isn’t going to pass on the chance of two highly-entertaining 13+ win teams going at it for the No. 1 seed.

So get some sleep. We’re staying up late next week.