This is a huge one, Bengals fans.
The Cincinnati Bengals are riding a three-game winning streak and are one win shy of evening their record at 8-8. They have yet to defeat a team with a winning record but to keep their very slim playoff chances alive. They’ll have to find a way to do just that as they host the 9-6 Denver Broncos on Saturday.
If the Bengals can get a win in Week 17, they’ll do their part in keeping the life support plugged in. Of course, they also need the Colts and Dolphins to lose one as well, and then they have to hope the Chiefs, who have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, play to win against the Broncos in Week 18.
But they can only do what they can do. Even if they win out, they can blame being shut out of the playoffs on another slow start and an epically bad defense that couldn’t figure it out until it was too late.
Here are a few matchups that could decide what is practically a playoff game for both teams.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Pat Surtain II
Chase is the best receiver in the NFL right now and leads all receivers in nearly every major category. If he continues at his current pace, he’ll likely win the rare triple crown, leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
On Saturday, he’ll likely be shadowed by Surtain, who has the highest Pro Football Focus grade in man and zone coverage so far this season. He has gone toe-to-toe with some of the league’s best receivers and has allowed just one touchdown to his four interceptions, per PFF.
This is a clash of two players at the very top of their respective games, and if Tee Higgins doesn’t play, Surtain will likely be the only thing standing between Joe Burrow and his otherworldly connection with his longtime WR1.
Joe Burrow vs. Top-Tier Defense
Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season despite the team’s 7-8 record. If the Bengals were more playoff-relevant, he’d be a favorite for the award. Unfortunately, a terrible defense and some bad luck have been shackled to his ankle and dragged him down with them.
It’s very likely this game will turn into a shootout, which means Burrow is going to need to be close to perfect. If the Bengals’ defense can’t get some stops and force a turnover or two, Burrow will be put in a position where he’ll have to score every time he’s on the field. Against a defense that’s allowing the fourth-fewest points per game, that could be a tall order.
Bengals Secondary vs. a Capable Passing Attack
The Bengals are riding a three-game winning streak, but that streak came against the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns, who have 13 wins between them. In those games, the Bengals’ secondary, which has looked terrible through much of the season, looked like it might be figuring things out. Safety Geno Stone has intercepted a pass in each of the last three games, and he’s looking like a good pairing with Jordan Battle.
The Broncos don’t have the most explosive passing attack in the league, but rookie quarterback Bo Nix has 22 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions, and, at worst, it looks like he’s not going to lose the game for the Broncos. He’s throwing to a couple of talented receivers, including Courtland Sutton, and while it’s not the most explosive passing offense, it’s efficient—and against a bad defense, that’s enough.
Bengals Defensive Front vs. Broncos’ Three-Headed RB Attack
The Broncos have a committee of running backs led by Javonte Williams, who leads the team in carries. The group also includes Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime, who are both averaging more than four yards per carry.
The Bengals’ defense struggled to stop the run early in the season, and if the Broncos are able to march down the field repeatedly while keeping the clock running, the Bengals’ two best players will be where they can’t hurt Denver—on the sidelines.
Bengals Pass Rush vs. Broncos’ Offensive Line
Nix has only been sacked 22 times this season compared to Burrow’s 37 sacks, and that’s a big reason the rookie quarterback has been able to be as efficient as he has been. The Bengals will have Trey Hendrickson, who leads the league in sacks with 13.5. Unfortunately, they haven’t had much help from anyone else.
With Sam Hubbard out, Joseph Ossai and last year’s first-round pick, Myles Murphy, have a chance to show what they can do through the final stretch of the season. Rookies Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson, who both had sacks last week against the Browns, also have an opportunity to build on their strong Week 16 performances.
