Can the Giants find the key to unlock some semblance of offense?
The 2-13 New York Giants will attempt on Sunday to avoid an 0-9 home record, as they host their final game at MetLife Stadium against the 7-8 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are currently 7.5-point road favorites and the Over/Under is 40.5-points.
The Giants were blown out in Atlanta last week, 34-7. Drew Lock threw two pick sixes in the game. The Colts were blowing out the Titans and were up 38-7. They secured a 38-30 victory, but the Titans did crawl back into the game near the end.
Defensive statisitcs
The Colts allow 23.9-points per game, ranking them 23rd in the NFL. For reference, the Giants allow 24.1-points per game (25th). They are a bottom five defense in yards allowed, allowing 362 yards per game; only the Saints, Panthers, and Jaguars allow more yards per game. Indianapolis struggles to shut the run down. They rank 28th in the NFL, allowing 136.5 rushing yards per game. The Giants allow 142.6.
Their pass defense ranks 23rd in the NFL. They surrender 225 passing yards per game. The Colts’ defense allows a touchdown on 60% of their red zone trips, ranking them 20th in the NFL. They also allow a conversion on 44.4% of opponent third down attempts (29th in NFL).
Gus Bradley is the Colts’ defensive coordinator. Indianapolis is not an aggressive defense. They blitz at just a 17.6% rate, which ranks 29th in the NFL. They get pressure at a 21.8% rate. Bradley employs a heavy Cover-3 defense with twists/stunts up front from a physical a long defensive line that consists of Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Kwity Paye.
Paye leads the team with seven sacks. Buckner is right behind Paye with 6.5 takedowns, and rookie pass rusher Laiatu Latu has four sacks this season. Raekwon Davis is another gigantic defensive lineman in the Colts’ rotation. Former Jaguars’ first round pick, Taven Bryan, is also on their bench and will see snaps. The Colts’ front will be a problem for the Giants injured offensive line.
Bobby Okereke’s former linebacker mate Zaire Franklin leads the team with 151 tackles. Safety Nick Cross is second on the team with 131 tackles. Julian Blackmon is the free safety opposite Cross; Will linebacker E.J. Speed is injured and Grant Stuard will play in his stead.
The Colts keep their zones tight despite a young and unproven secondary. Their secondary leader is their nickel corner Kenny Moore II, who has three interceptions and seven passes defended. Second year seventh round pick Jaylon Jones leads the team with 12 passes defended; he also has two picks. The Colts have 15 interceptions on the season and 16 forced fumbles.
Jones is joined by Moore II and Samuel Womack III, who has also been around the football often this season. He has nine passes defended and two picks. The Colts defense isn’t a top unit in the league, but they’re effective despite lacking true star power. They should still give the Giants a problem on Sunday.
Giants game plan
Drew Lock being forced to touch the football every play isn’t conducive for success. Brian Daboll has expressed his discontent with the turnovers and the Giants are coming off a game with three of those. New York will likely try to limit passing if possible, and keep most passes around the line of scrimmage. The Giants have employed this approach for weeks — and it has still blown up in their face — but game script also gets out of hand and the Giants are forced to air it out.
Lock has one touchdown pass on the season, which came last week to Tyrone Tracy Jr. He has four interceptions and three of them were returned for a touchdown. Expect a heavy dose of Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. Although the temperatures shouldn’t be too cold, there’s a slight chance of rain. Is even more sloppy football in our future?
DUO runs against this front with this iteration of the Giants’ offensive line could be tough, but it’s an approach I’d like to see, as well as misdirection roll-outs, designed-screens, smoke-screens, and other quick play action passes.
Both Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers practiced on Friday and should be available. Brian Daboll said he’s hopeful they’ll play. Both rookies should be focal points of the offensive game plan. When passing, the Giants have to attack the curl/flat areas and the seams of Gus Bradley’s Cover-3 based defense.
It’s unfortunate, but the Giants’ offense has to mitigate risk, lest we experience another week like the Falcons game. The Colts should be prepared for the Giants’ rushing approach. Expect seven, eight man boxes that are more beefed up with attention on Malik Nabers. Nabers should see coverage shifted his way in certain situations. If the Giants move him inside, he’ll likely be matched by Moore II, who is a reliable veteran defender.
Malik Nabers has 50-plus receiving yards in eight consecutive games. Only Odell Beckham Jr. has a longer streak (nine) by a rookie since 1970. Nabers surpassed Beckham Jr.’s franchise rookie record of 91 receptions last week. He’ll look to reset the rookie reception record of Puke Nacua (2023). Nabers has 97 catches on the season; Nacua record is 105. Nabers has a realistic shot to catch nine passes on Sunday if he plays.
Final thoughts
The Giants will play hard for their coaching staff and show pride in their house. They will attempt to give their fans an ever elusive victory that’s evaded Giants’ nation for much of the season, but specifically at home. The Colts desperately need to win this football game to keep their outside playoff chances alive. If the Giants can protect the football, they’ll keep this game close, but the Colts should take care of business and win this football game.
