Welcome to PFF’s betting market update for Week 2 of bowl season.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week. 

We’ll also provide an update for each bowl game, where market dynamics differ significantly and are largely influenced by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes.

WASABI FENWAY BOWL: UCONN vs NORTH CAROLINA

Spread: With several portal entries and opt-outs for the NFL draft, the Tar Heels have dropped from 4.5 to 2.5-point favorites. We’ve seen some continued support for UCONN, as a few books have dropped this to 2.

Total: The drop in total reflects the significant absences for UNC in the bowl game, most notably RB Omarion Hampton, who declared for the draft. Additionally, the Tar Heels will be without their head coach and offensive coordinator. The total currently sits at 52.5 across the board.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

BAD BOY MOWERS PINSTRIPE BOWL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs NEBRASKA

Spread: The spread initially dropped below 3 after Nebraska lost three starters to the portal, sparking widespread speculation that QB Dylan Raiola might follow. Raiola put those rumors to rest, and the Cornhuskers have since rebounded to a 4-point favorite. Some 3.5s are still available.

Total: The total has steadily declined, falling 1.5 points from the opener. It now sits at 45.5 across the board.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

ISLETA NEW MEXICO BOWL: LOUISIANA vs TCU

Spread: Louisiana enters as an 11.5-point underdog to TCU, largely due to injuries, including the loss of their backup quarterback in the conference championship against Marshall. The line briefly reached 13 before settling back to 11.5. TCU, meanwhile, avoided significant losses during portal season.

Total: The total dropped as low as 57 but has since rebounded to its opening number of 59.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

POP-TARTS BOWL: IOWA STATE vs MIAMI

Spread: The announcement that Cam Ward will play in the bowl game has caused a significant shift in the spread. While the extent of his participation remains uncertain, the market has settled uniformly at 3.5 across all books.

Total: The total has risen to 57, although a few books are lagging, with numbers as low as 55.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the upward movement on the total and lock in over 57, the most widely available number. That said, Kambi shops offering 55.5 present a strong value as of Friday morning. The market may not have fully accounted for the impact of Ward’s return.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

SNOOP DOGG ARIZONA BOWL: MIAMI (OH) vs COLORADO STATE

Spread: The spread briefly touched 3 before the buy-back on Colorado State brought it down to 2.5. Both teams appear evenly matched in terms of key losses from the transfer portal and draft declarations.

Total: Initial movement on the total dropped it to 42, with further downward momentum driven by a pick release, settling the line at 40.5.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

GO BOWLING MILITARY BOWL: EAST CAROLINA vs NC STATE

Spread: NC State briefly moved to a 7-point favorite before buy-back dropped it to 6.5. A few books have even adjusted further to 6.

Total: The total opened at 58 and has remained steady, with only minor upward movement to 58.5 at select books.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

VALERO ALAMO BOWL: BYU vs COLORADO

Spread: The Alamo Bowl is shaping up with some intrigue, as both Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter are expected to play. On this news, the spread moved sharply from 3 to as high as 5.5 before settling back to 4. Current market options range from 3.5 to 4.5. Notably, Colorado has weathered the transfer portal season relatively well, keeping their roster intact.

Total: The total has seen a modest rise, moving from 54.5 to 55. Books remain split between the two numbers.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy into the over 54.5, as the market may not have fully reacted to the confirmed availability of Colorado’s star players.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

RADIANCE TECHNOLOGIES INDEPENDENCE BOWL: LOUISIANA TECH vs ARMY

Spread: LA Tech has stepped up and answered the call to replace Marshall after opt-outs left them nearly incapable of fielding a roster for the Independence Bowl. There’s nothing else to report besides a move down to 16. There are still some 16.5s out there.

Total: This total opened at 44 and has remained at 44.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)

TransPerfect MUSIC CITY BOWL: IOWA vs MISSOURI

Spread: Despite WR Luther Burden opting out in preparation for the NFL draft, the Tigers have become a 3-point favorite. The consensus line is still split between 2.5 and 3, so you can find whichever side of the key number you like at a reasonable price.

Total: There was a small tick-up from 39 to 40. A few books have taken it to 40.5, but we’ve yet to see a 41 anywhere.

Current Portal Players (min. 100 snaps)