Giants-Colts: Can the Giants slow down the stampede?

This one’s on the run defense

The New York Giants return to Metlife Stadium for one last home game this Sunday. They host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 as they try to end their franchise-record 10-game losing streak and avoid going winless at home.

This game has long been viewed as one of the more “winnable” (if such a label can be applied to the 2024 Giants) games on the calendar. The Colts are coming off of a game against the Tennessee Titans in which they jumped out to a massive 38-7 lead and set a franchise rushing record with 335 rushing yards. The Titans eventually closed the gap with 23 unanswered points in the final 18 minutes of the game, but those came after the Colts took their foot off the gas and pulled starters.

Indy’s ground game was so dominant that quarterback Anthony Richardson only had to throw 11 passes.

The Giants’ defense has played with heart, but injuries and an absolute albatross of an offense have dragged them down. Can the Giants’ defense prevent one last humiliation at home?

Stats that matter

Jonathan Taylor

The Giants are closing out their season facing a month-long stretch of great running backs and great rushing attacks. The defense has actually acquitted itself well defending the run and primary running backs.

The Giants have done a good job of preventing explosive runs over the last several weeks. Bijan Robinson only managed a long of 14 yards, Derrick Henry had a long of 13 yards, and Alvin Kamara had 16 yards. None of those backs topped 100 yards, and the Giant have given up an average of 68.3 per game (3.86 yards per carry) to starting backs

But they’ll have their work cut out for them against the Colts and Jonathan Taylor (we’ll get to Anthony Richardson in a moment).

Taylor brings an uncommon blend of size and explosiveness to the running back position that’s reminiscent of Saquon Barkley. He’s a compact, powerful back at 5-foot-10, 225 pounds, but has 4.3 speed (4.39 second 40 at the 2020 Combine), as well as a 36-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. Taylor is coming off of a massive 218-yard, 3-touchdown game against the Tennessee Titans. That was the second most yards he’s gotten in a single game, and the 102 yards over expected were the most of his career.

As noted above, the Colts also have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. They feature a very varied arsenal of running plays, but Taylor is at his most dangerous when running downhill. That’s particularly true when they scheme a pulling blocker to create a numbers advantage on the play side. Taylor has good vision, contact balance, and stride frequency, but he doesn’t have truly elite acceleration. So while he can survive contact and pick up yards after contact, he doesn’t often make defenders miss in a phone booth or explode once he stops his feet.

That (small) flaw in Taylor’s game might be the Giants’ best hope for stopping (or at least slowing) the Colts’ running back. The middle of the Giants’ defense is heavily depleted by injury, and that’s where Taylor shines. However, they’ve done a good job of attacking gaps and getting off blocks to take away primary running lanes. The Giants will need their young defensive tackles to balance aggression and discipline to disrupt Taylor at the line of scrimmage so Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and whatever second level defenders are able to take the field can rally to the ball.

Anthony Richardson — the runner

Now it’s time to talk about Anthony Richardson, and we need to talk about him in two parts: First as a runner, and then as a passer.

Richardson is, by far, more dangerous as a runner than as a passer at this point in his development, and that may always be true. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, with a 4.43-second 40 and a 40.5-inch vertical, Richardson would be classified as a freak athlete at pretty much any skill position, let alone at quarterback. His elite size, power, explosiveness, and speed make him a definite threat to hurt the defense with his legs.

The Colts use Richardson as a ball carrier on designed runs and he’s averaged 7.3 carries per game since regaining his starting job, per NextGenStats. He’s dangerous enough on those plays, averaging 4.86 yards per carry with eight first downs and three touchdowns.

That said, Richardson is much more dangerous when scrambling. Per NextGenStats, Richardson is second in the NFL in explosive runs (10+ yards) on scrambles and he averages an explosive run on 48 percent of his scrambles. He’s also second in the NFL in yards over expected per scramble with 3.5 yards over expected.

Adding a second running threat on a given play will make life significantly more complicated for the Giants’ defense. They’ll need to be alert for designed quarterback carries as well as read-option plays. The fact that Richardson is bigger than any of the Giants’ linebackers and only a few pounds lighter than Brian Burns or Kayvon Thibodeaux means that the Giants will need to be disciplined in defending the second year player. They can’t over-run the play and put themselves in poor position to make a tackle. Richardson’s size and strength could mean that even the edge defenders might need help getting him on the ground.

That discipline will also have to extend to their pass rush as well. Not only do all the same issues as in regular run defense apply, but the Giants’ secondary will be in coverage, as opposed to coming downhill. The Giants’ defensive front will need to play the run first, which will slow down their pass rush, but not getting a sack might be preferable to allowing him to get loose in space.

Besides, Richardson throwing the ball presents an opportunity for the defense.

Anthony Richardson — the passer

We also need to talk about Anthony Richardson as a passer. After all, he was drafted to be a quarterback, not a glorified running back. Richardson’s passing acumen offers one of the strangest dichotomies in the NFL today. On the one hand, he might have the strongest arm in the NFL — up to and including Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. He can access any part of the field from virtually any part of the field, from almost any platform. He’s able to drive the ball deep without setting his feet or transferring his weight. He can take the top off the defene with ease or challenge tight coverages with sheer velocity. In short, Richardson is capable of some truly breathtaking throws, and there’s a reason why he’s leading the NFL in air yards by 3 whole yards per attempt.

He’s also the least accurate and efficient passer in the NFL.

In a league where there are a full 15 quarterbacks who are completing at least 70 percent of their passes, Richardson is just barely above 50% (not counting throwaways). Richardson isn’t just the least accurate quarterback in the NFL, he’s the least accurate passer by about 12 points. He’s also last in the NFL in completion percentage over expected, falling short of his expected completion rate by 10 points — three points worse than the second-worst. I should note, that the cutoff here is quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts this year, of which there have been 40.

Richardson’s saving grace is that between Taylor and his own running ability, he isn’t asked to throw all that often. He’s attempted just 264 passes in 11 games this year, or 24 pass attempts per game and he threw the ball just 11 times against the Titans.

He has 12 interceptions to eight passing touchdowns this year, for an incredibly unsightly 4.5% interception rate.

That presents the other opportunity for the Giants’ in this game. New York is very not-good at coming down with interceptions. Their defense just doesn’t have my ballhawks, and the fact that they rarely force opposing offenses into “must pass” situations, they don’t get many opportunities (relatively speaking) to generate interceptions. That said, any time Richardson drops back to pass, the potential for a pick will be there. Not only is Richardson inaccurate as a passer, he’s just plain raw. He’s had just 741 pass attempts over the last four years put together, or an average of 185 per year. A rough average for an NFL quarterback is 600 pass attempts per 17 games.

If the Giants can slow down the Colts’ run game enough to force Richardson to throw. And if they can play with enough discipline to keep contain so he doesn’t scramble, the opportunity will likely be there to make a game-changing play.