There is still a path forward.
The Indianapolis Colts have a chance to make the playoffs sitting at 7-8. That is the good news. The bad news is that they need a lot to happen in order to make the postseason. The win against the Titans on Sunday bought them more time, but that time is quickly running out. Their percent chance actually increased over the weekend, moving from around seven up to eighteen. That number can jump even higher with a few more things occurring this week.
Obviously, for any of this to work at all, the Colts must win their final two games against the Giants and Jaguars. Luckily for them, those are incredibly winnable contests. They also have to hope for disasters from the Chargers and/or Broncos. Both of those teams play on Saturday, so the Colts will have an idea of what to play for when they kick off against the Giants. Colts.com does a great job of breaking everything down, with one scenario in particular seemingly the most practical.
Since I don’t anticipate the Chargers losing to the Patriots or Raiders, let’s focus on the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos lose their remaining games at the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and vs. the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) AND the Bengals and/or Miami Dolphins win their remaining games.
In the second scenario, the Colts, Broncos and a third (or even fourth) team all have a 9-8 record. Because not all three or four teams will have played each other this season, the tiebreaker goes to conference record.
If the tiebreaker is between the Colts, Broncos and Bengals in this 9-8 scenario, the Colts would win it based on having a 7-5 conference record, better than the Broncos (who would be 5-7) and Bengals (who would be 6-6). If the tiebreaker involves the Dolphins, who would also be 7-5 in AFC play, the Broncos (and possibly Bengals) would be eliminated on conference record, and then it would revert to a head-to-head tiebreaker between the Colts and Dolphins, which the Colts own based on their 16-10 win over Miami in Week 7.
Here is where it gets dicey. The Broncos host the Chiefs in week 18. What, if anything, will the Chiefs have to play for at that point? If the Chiefs win at Pittsburgh, nothing. We need to be huge Steelers fans this Christmas. With an easy schedule for Buffalo, that will force the Chiefs to play their starters the last game of the year. Additionally, the Bengals and/or the Dolphins have to win out. That could be a real scenario, but I still point to the fact that the Chiefs game could be the real fly in the ointment.
Whatever happens between these other teams, the Colts have backed themselves into this corner all on their own. Winning in Denver would have put them in a much better situation, but too many losses and too many missed opportunities along the way have put them in a deep hole. There is still a chance for sure, but relaying on so many different teams and games makes it less realistic. Best case for this week is a Broncos and Chiefs loss and a Colts victory. That will make things much more interesting heading into the season’s final week.
