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NFL Week 16: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights
2YXDPBA Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith warms up before an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
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PFF’s Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football. This week, we’ve added injury insights to provide some analysis around which players might benefit from increased opportunities due to injuries to players above them on the depth chart.
We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.
| WEEK | WINS | LOSSES | WIN % |
| 1 | 8 | 19 | 30% |
| 2 | 25 | 19 | 57% |
| 3 | 19 | 28 | 40% |
| 4 | 20 | 13 | 61% |
| 5 | 16 | 16 | 50% |
| 6 | 28 | 27 | 51% |
| 7 | 31 | 20 | 61% |
| 8 | 32 | 21 | 60% |
| 9 | 44 | 30 | 59% |
| 10 | 30 | 35 | 46% |
| 11 | 29 | 32 | 48% |
| 12 | 27 | 39 | 41% |
| 13 | 37 | 36 | 51% |
| 14 | 45 | 36 | 56% |
| 15 | 41 | 46 | 47% |
| TOTAL | 432 | 417 | 51% |
All Key Insights can be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players with an associated insight.
- Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 432-417 (51%)
- Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 380 -351 (52%)
QB GENO SMITH, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OVER 225.5 PASS YARDS (-113 on FanDuel)
Smith trails only Jared Goff and Joe Burrow in passing yards this season, as he’s carried much of the offensive burden for the Seahawks this season. The Vikings’ defense has also tended to funnel teams toward attacking them through the air, ranking in the top five in pass rate faced and total passing yards allowed. Given that we should see plenty of volume from Smith and that there are several favorable matchup angles (success vs. blitz and success vs. two-high coverages), this is one of my favorite passing props of the week.
