Week 16 best prop bets for Giants-Falcons

Wagers to consider as you fill out your tickets

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 16 edition! Happy Holidays (and first day of winter) to all. There’s some fresh snow on the ground in New York this morning. It’s football weather – perfect for a weekend chock full of NFL and college playoff action.

Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No slam-dunks here!

Another week, another Giants’ loss. When will this season end? Big Blue has dropped nine straight contests and if the season ended today, New York (2-12) would have the first pick in the 2025 NFL draft. It’s been a strange season in the NFL, as the league is both top-heavy and bottom-heavy, with a very small middle class. Coming into this week, nine teams were either 2-12, 3-11, or 4-10, while 11 teams were 9-5 or better.

Only two NFL teams came into Week 15 with a 7-7 record, and one of them is the Atlanta Falcons, who the Giants visit on Sunday. The top story for this game is that quarterback Kirk Cousins is being replaced by rookie Michael Penix, Jr., who the Falcons selected with the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft just six weeks after the team gave Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million in guaranteed money. Assuming Atlanta can’t trade him, Cousins likely will be cut before his next roster bonus ($10M) is due in March. Hey, it’s not my money, but Cousins will end up earning an obscene amount for 14 mostly forgettable games.

The Falcons are still in the hunt for the NFC South or possibly a Wild Card, so this is a game Atlanta desperately needs, with a quarterback making his NFL debut as a starter. The good news for the dirty birds is that the Giants are reeling, and their defense is extremely beat up across all three levels.

The line for this game opened at 10 (before the QB change was announced), but has moved to ATL -8.5. Given how poorly Cousins was playing, the direction of that line change is a bit surprising, at least to this observer. The game total is 43.5. Penix has almost no NFL history to go on, and that makes this game tricky from a handicapping perspective.

I went 2-1 last week, which makes four straight winning weeks for me. For the third straight week, my one miss was losing an “over” on a rushing prop. So maybe I’ll avoid those for a week or two. Still, my picks are 9-3 across those four games. I’ll try to stay hot, but I’ll say it upfront: This game has me befuddled.

Let’s get to the picks. All lines and odds are from Fanduel and are as of Saturday at 9 p.m., December 21.

Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images

1. Game total UNDER 43.5 (-118). This total seems high to me. The Giants are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL, and they’ve been trotting out a musical chairs of terrible back-up QBs. Their defense doesn’t produce turnovers, so they rarely get short fields. Scoring has been a major chore. Only five of their 14 games have gone over the total, and that trend has been sticky all year. On the other side, Penix is making his first-ever NFL start and I expect Atlanta to pound the ball (I think you can consider the “overs” for one or both of their backs) and to keep things fairly simple for him.

2. Malik Nabers OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115). Rinse and repeat. I’ll keep riding the “overs” for Nabers, who gets targeted at one of the highest rates in the entire league, and has some NFL and team rookie records and milestones in his sights. Nabers has battled through a variety of injuries and that’s probably depressing his props, but I’ll stay on him as he’s proving to be a gamer who keeps giving his all despite all the bumps, bruises, and losing. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks and pressure rate. That’s a big part of why they’re among the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Drew Lock is nothing special, but give him time to throw and Nabers time to get open and he should have plenty of easy completions to the rookie star.

3. Graham Gano OVER 5.5 kicker points (-120). A kicker prop? Sure, why not. It’s risky taking the over on anything that requires the Giants to score points, but this is a low kicker total and I think they’ll be in this game for at least three quarters. I also believe they’ll be able to move the ball on an Atlanta defense that defends the run pretty well, but gets shredded through the air. Getting into the end zone is another story. It’s a dome, so I like Gano’s chances to make whatever field goal attempts he gets, and I think he’ll get at least two.

Those are the picks for Week 16. Good luck with your wagers!