PFF breaks down Week 16’s Saturday doubleheader by reviewing the teams’ records, key trends and game overviews before delivering the best bet backed by PFF’s trusted betting model.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs(-3.5) [Total: 42]

Game Overview

The first leg of this Saturday’s NFL doubleheader features a showdown between the back-to-back AFC South champion Texans and the nine-time AFC West champion Chiefs.

Kansas City can exhale after Patrick Mahomes returned to practice this week following an injury scare in Week 15. The Chiefs remain focused on holding off Buffalo for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Despite their success, Kansas City has struggled in betting markets, covering just once since October. However, they’ve been reliable in tighter matchups, boasting a 3-0 ATS record as favorites of four points or fewer.

Houston, like Kansas City, rarely finds itself as an underdog but holds a respectable 2-1 ATS record in such scenarios. On the road, the Texans have been inconsistent, compiling a 3-3-1 ATS record this season.

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 5.5 Receptions (+112)

With Patrick Mahomes set to play despite nursing a tender ankle, expect the star quarterback to focus on distributing the ball to his weapons, setting the stage for a significant workload for tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce has remained a key target in this offense, surpassing his receptions line in five of the past eight games.

Kelce’s potential volume is promising, especially against a Texans defense that has struggled to contain tight ends in the absence of linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Over the past two games, Houston has allowed Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith and Jaguars TE Evan Engram to combine for 16 receptions and 89 yards. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) [Total: 44.5]

Game Overview

The race for the AFC North crown intensifies as the Steelers and Ravens face off in a pivotal matchup. A Pittsburgh win would clinch the division title, while a Baltimore victory would secure a playoff spot and keep their divisional hopes alive.

After boasting one of the league’s best against-the-spread (ATS) records through Week 11, Pittsburgh has cooled off, going 2-2 ATS over the past four games. Historically, Mike Tomlin’s squad thrives as underdogs, holding a 5-1 ATS record in such situations this season. However, last week’s two-touchdown loss as road underdogs in Philadelphia may give bettors pause.

This game is a rematch of the teams’ Week 11 clash, where Baltimore’s defense held Pittsburgh without a touchdown but still fell 18-16.

The Ravens will look to prove themselves at home, where they have struggled to meet betting expectations, posting a 2-3-1 ATS record at M&T Bank Stadium.

RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens: Over 31.5 Rushing & Receiving yards

While the spotlight often shines elsewhere in the backfield, Hill’s contributions remain critical. The versatile back has established himself as a reliable receiving option, earning an 89.1 PFF receiving grade — the fourth-highest among running backs. In Week 15, Hill hauled in five receptions for 61 yards, further showcasing his value.

The last time these teams met, Hill tallied 41 yards of offense on six touches. That versatility could challenge the Steelers again, especially after they struggled to contain opposing backs in coverage last week. Philadelphia’s Kenneth Gainwell and Saquon Barkley combined for five receptions and 49 yards against Pittsburgh.