Checking in with Detroit Lions fans for our latest SB Nation Reacts survey: Will the Lions win the NFC North?
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NFL. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Detroit Lions fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Each week, in our SB Nation Reacts Survey, we will provide readers with a question or two specifically geared toward Lions fans, with an article exploring the results released later in the week. In this installment, we have two questions: the first being a recurring weekly question, and the next being designed for Week 16.
1. Are you confident the Lions are headed in the right direction? (weekly poll)
2. Will the Lions win the NFC North?
After four consecutive weeks of polling at 99% confidence, the Lions dipped down to 91% ahead of the Packers games (likely the results of Green Bay trolls), then jumped back up to 98% ahead of the Bills game.
Now, after suffering their second loss on the season on Sunday and placing three more players on injured reserve, the fan base seemed down in the dumps on Monday. Then Tuesday arrived and Lions coach Dan Campbell delivered another iconic speech about navigating through injuries, and the fans suffering appeared to be softened.
Now it’s time to vote again. How confident are you that the Lions are headed in the right direction?
As for the second question, after seeing Monday’s reaction to the Lions’ injuries, I was genuinely curious if the fan base still believed the Lions would win their division. Let’s set the table.
Both the Lions and Vikings are 12-2 on the season, while the Packers are 10-4 and on the precipice of being eliminated from contention. At this time, with 3 games remaining, and the Lions and Vikings playing each other, the only thing the Packers are holding out hope for is one scenario. They need the Lions to lose the next three (because they can’t beat the Lions in a tie-breaker) the Vikings to lose the next two and beat Detroit in the finale, then the Packers are able to overcome the tiebreaker situation—which they are currently losing. Basically, it’s a two-horse race.
To win the division, the Lions magic number is: 3 (any combination of Lions wins and Vikings losses). The Vikings magic number is: 4.
The reason why the Lions have a lower magic number is because they hold the tiebreakers over the Vikings at multiple levels. And with only three games remaining, that means, the Lions control their own destiny, while the Vikings need help from the Lions (i.e. a loss + three Vikings wins).
If for some reason, the Lions and Vikings end up with the same record at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker would be “head-to-head” competition. At this time, the Lions have a 1-0 advantage, but if the Vikings beat the Lions in the finale, that would make it 1-1 and they would need to go to a second tie-breaker, which is division record. At this time the Lions are 4-0 and the Vikings are 3-1. But, if the Vikings manage to even it up at 5-1 each (i.e. Lions beat Bears and lose to Vikings, while Vikings beat Lions and Packers), then we would look to a third tiebreaker. This next step identifies record against common opponents, and one stand-out game would be that the Lions beat the Rams, while the Vikings lost to them, meaning the Lions once again are ahead in the tiebreaker—and this one the Vikings can not overcome.
This third-level “common opponent” tiebreaker is what gives the Lions some wiggle room. If the Lions win out, they win the North. If the Lions lose to the Bears or 49ers but beat the Vikings, Detroit wins the North. This extra advantage has not been lost on the folks over at FanDuel Sportsbook, as they still have the Lions as the favorites to win the NFC North:
- Lions -290
- Vikings +220
- Packers +55,000
Alright, so what do you think? Vote in the polls below and keep an eye out later in the week for the results.
