The 2-12 New York Giants travel to Atlanta to face the 7-7 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Giants will turn back to Drew Lock at quarterback. Can the Giants, the league’s worst offensive team at 14.9 points per game, put together some good offense?
Defensive statistics
The Atlanta Falcons allow 24.4 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL. They surrender 342.6 yards per game (20th in NFL) while allowing 116.8 rushing yards per game (13th) and 225.9 passing yards per game (24th). Atlanta is a bottom-10 red zone defense; they surrender a touchdown on 62.79% of trips (25th). Their third-down percentage is 31st in the NFL, with a first down earned on 44.94% of tries. Only the Carolina Panthers are worse (47.8%).
Defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake blitzes on just 21% of snaps and pressures the quarterback on 19.8% of pass-rushing plays. Atlanta has only 23 sacks on the season, placing them last in the NFL. They rank 25th in total pressures.
MLB Kaden Ellis and edge Arnold Ebiketie are the primary pass rushers. The former has 34 pressures, and the latter has 32; both have four sacks each. Veteran three-technique Grady Jarrett has 2.5 sacks and 28 pressures on the year. Veteran Matthew Judon has 3.5 sacks and 19 pressures on the year. The Falcons have the second-lowest pressure to sack conversion rate this season (15.8%).
Atlanta relies on four-man pressure: simulated and stunts. They are an efficient stunt-running team. According to Pro Football Focus, the Falcons rank second in stunt-pressure rate at 57.1%.
The defensive front lacks potency but possesses a blend of length and physicality with players like Lorenzo Carter, David Onyemata, Demone Harris, Zach Harrison, Eddie Goldman, and Kentavius Street. Rookie second-round pick Ruke Orhorhoro returned from his I.R. stint in Week 15. He mainly played on passing downs and earned 15 snaps.
Still, they lack a dynamic pass-rusher. Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone are more explosive players who could threaten Evan Neal’s high side.
Atlanta runs a lot of nickel sub-packages: 2-4-5 and 3-3-5 defenses, specifically. They run a lot of variations of Cover-3 and use Cover-1 in man. Their safety pairing — Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates — is arguably the best duo in the league. They’re interchangeable assets that can take the center field or be a weapon underneath as a robber.
Bates has eight passes defended and three interceptions, while Simmons has seven passes defended and two picks. Nickel cornerback Dee Alford has eight passes defended on the season and is a good cover player in their sub-packages. AJ Terrell is still a very good player on the outside, but he’s allowing a 73.6% completion rate. He should see a decent amount of Malik Nabers, and he plays on both sides of the defense.
Veteran Mike Hughes starts opposite of Terrell at cornerback. Other secondary pieces include Kevin King — the former CB who now plays safety — and Richie Grant.
Middle linebacker Troy Anderson landed on the I.R. earlier this season. Kaden Elliss blitzes frequently and is used on many simulated pressures as the fourth rusher. Elliss has played well but does miss tackles (18, 13% missed tackle rate). Nate Landman earns defensive snaps at linebacker as well.
Giants’ game plan
The Falcons’ defense doesn’t inspire fear, but the Giants’ offense only instigates sadness. The ditch Brian Daboll has found himself in will be difficult to claw out of — what does he have to lose at this point? I hope to see a balanced approach from the Giants offense, focusing on Malik Nabers and taking the necessary deep shots when the protection holds up.
Simplifying the game plan for Lock and allowing him to establish a quick rhythm within the structure of the offense is wise. Daboll did a good job allowing Tim Boyle to get comfortable in the second half against Baltimore with play-action pitches/misdirections that featured easy dump-offs to Daniel Bellinger. Simple plays that allow Lock to quickly get rid of the football and use his adequate athletic ability is one method to try and move the football against this defense.
Desmond Ridder and the Raiders failed to get anything going against Atlanta until near the end, when they utilized up-tempo. This could be a way for Daboll to spice up his recipe if the Giants continue to struggle early in the game. This will, of course, be contingent on the game flow and the rest of the defense, but New York has experienced some success using up-tempo at points in the season.
Play action bootlegs from under center with half-field reads, check downs, and the quarterback run as an option on certain first downs. Narrowing the field for Lock could be another way to get him into a rhythm.
New York should expect gap exchange, stunts, and simulated pressure with Elliss or one of the defensive backs as the extra defender. Even though the Falcons pass-rush is modest, the Giants must keep tight ends and running backs in to help the tackle situation.
If Atlanta stays true to their Cover-3 tendencies, New York should look to target the seams and position the curl/flat defenders in conflict with floods and two-route concepts to one side. Lock has the arm to take far-hash throws; New York should test the defense if they fail to cover every inch of the field.
Final thoughts
The Giants may lose their 10th game in a row, setting a franchise record in this centennial season. Atlanta looked at Kirk Cousins’ recent play, saw the Giants at home on their schedule, and said, “Time to go with our rookie.” Now, in uber-desperation mode, the Giants will see Michael Penix Jr. — a quarterback Joe Schoen passed on at six overall. The Giants will play with fight defensively but ultimately will lose to Atlanta.
