Giants at Falcons: What to expect when Atlanta has the ball

Can the Giants get a win on the road?

The New York Giants will go on the road to face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. The Giants were at home for the last two weeks, but have definitely seemed much more comfortable on the road than at home this year.

The Falcons have thrown the Giants a curveball, naming rookie Michael Penix Jr. their starting quarterback this game. The decision came after five weeks of poor (or straight up bad) play by Kirk Cousins. The Falcons stunned the NFL world when they selected Penix at 8th overall, shortly after signing Cousins to a four-year $180 million contract. The thought at the time was that the Falcons were expecting to win with Cousins in the short term, and didn’t anticipate being high enough in the draft to select a top quarterback.

That, however, didn’t work out and now Penix is taking the field earlier than expected.

That will make game-planning difficult, but we can look at the the Falcons’ primary playmakers and see how they might be used.

The Giants’ defense has been playing incredibly hard since losing Dexter Lawrence, but they were out-manned against the Ravens and haven’t gotten much support from the offense. Can they get it done against a rookie quarterback, or will the Falcons’ talented skill position players make the difference?

Stats that matter

Bijan Robinson

All things considered, we pretty much have to start with Robinson. The Falcons already run the ball the eighth-most in the NFL and it seems likely that the Falcons will want to use the run to take pressure off of their rookie quarterback in his first start. On top of that, the Giants’ run defense — while better of late — has largely been atrocious this year.

Robinson himself is one of the top backs in the NFL, and is exceptionally difficult to bring down. He’s forced the most missed tackles of any running back in the NFL this year (92) and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with eight touchdowns.

The Falcons use a zone-based running scheme, relying heavily on outside zone as the foundation of their rushing attack. Robinson is both an excellent athlete with great quickness and acceleration as well as a powerful runner. He also has very good vision, and zone runs allow him to either follow his blocks or pick out cutback lanes.

While the Falcons make heavy use of outside zone blocking schemes in their runs, they make an effort to be diverse within those schemes. They’re ambidextrous, running to both the left and right with similar success. They also like to mix pre-snap motion in with their runs, though the defense shouldn’t use that to key on the play-side. The Falcons put players in motion for varying effects depending on the play call.

On some running plays they’ll put a receiver in jet motion to force the defense to keep track of another moving piece, as well as potentially pull a defender out of position.

Conversely, they will also put a receiver or tight end in motion to add another blocker to the play-side and help create a numbers advantage.

Stopping Robinson will likely be the key to this game. Of course, doing so is easier said than done and the Giants will need to be disciplined as well as aggressive in their run defense.

But not only is Robinson a legitimate threat on his own, but the Giants will want to put the ball in Penix’s hands. Penix was a highly productive quarterback at the collegiate level, throwing with with timing, touch, accuracy, and anticipation. It’s entirely possible that he will have a debut like C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels and prove the Falcons right for taking him and then making the change. But he’s also a rookie and the Giants should try to make him look like one.

Drake London

London is the Falcons primary receiving threat, and while he isn’t one of the very best receivers in the NFL, he’s definitely deserving of the “Number 1 receiver” moniker. London is currently seventh in targets, and just outside of the top 10 in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and percentage of his team’s air yardage.

He’s a big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and understands how to use his size to his advantage. London isn’t a freak athlete, but is a good route runner who positions himself well to put his body between the ball and the defender. He has excellent ball skills to go with great body control to maximize his catch radius. London excels at boxing out defenders and extending to pluck the ball out of the air.

London is far from a burner, but he has enough speed to get vertical and threaten defenses deep, as well as the ability to be a possession receiver to keep the chains moving.

The Giants’ cornerback depth chart has been a revolving door, to say the least. They were without Deonte Banks, Cor’Dale Flott, and Dru Phillips last week, and (at least as of this writing) we don’t know their status for this week. Banks offers the best physical matchup for London, though he’s struggled against number one receivers this year.

The Giants might choose to put the more experienced Adoree Jackson on London regardless of Banks’ health. London is also capable of being a “big slot” receiver

The Giants may be forced to rely on a single corner to contain London as the Falcons have two more good receivers in Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud. Neither is the same kind of threat as London is, but they are both capable of hurting the defense if they get a favorable matchup.

Kyle Pitts

The final head of Atlanta’s three-headed monster on offense, Pitts was considered a “unicorn” at the tight end position. He has an exceptional combination of size and athleticism and is really more of an industrial-sized receiver than a tight end.

Despite his incredible athleticism for the position, the Falcons have yet to find a way to use him. He had 1,026 yards as a rookie, but has never come close to replicating that success. Likewise, he’s tied his career best this year with three touchdowns.

Part of the problem has been his usage. Rather than using his size and speed to threaten the seam or attempting to isolate him on smaller defensive backs and slower linebackers, the Falcons use him as a possession receiver. Of this three catches agaisnt the Raiders, two were stick routes and the third was an out-route. He ran the routes well, did a good job of finding soft spots in the Raiders’ defense, and caught each target cleanly. However, the route design doesn’t take advantage of Pitts’ unique skill set to attack the defense.

More often, the Falcons use Pitts’ size and mobility to create opportunities for their other receiving options. His athleticism allows him to get into position quickly and easily, while his versatility makes him a credible threat out of bunch formations. He’s able to run routes like a wide receiver so teams can’t automatically assume he’s simply an obstacle if he lines up with the receivers. His big frame, however forces, defensive backs to take the long way around him in space.

The Giants have used Isaiah Simmons as a nickel cornerback after losing safety Tyler Nubin for the remainder of the year. Playing Simmons on Pitts is a potentially favorable matchup for the Giants’ defense. One of the complications here is that we don’t know what Michale Penix’s tendencies are, or how the Falcons will call the offense for him.

Penix’s two favorite targets in college were receivers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, however tight end Jack Westover was relatively frequently targeted by Penix last year as well, so he’s comfortable targeting tight ends. Penix led FBS in deep yardage in 2023 with 1,787 deep yards and an average depth of target of 10.7 yards downfield per PFF. We could see the Falcons make more of an attempt to get Pitts involved as a vertical threat. Not only would that stress a the Giants’ depleted defense, but it would also play to Penix’s strengths as well as potentially take the Giants by surprise.

Simmons is one of the few players on the Giants’ defense who not only has the size to match up with Pitts, but also the athleticism to stay with him through his routes.

The good news here is that the Falcons’ pass protection has been porous. The matchup between Jake Mattews and Brian Burns on the offensive left or defensive right could be the one to watch. Matthews is allowing the fourth-highest pressure rate among all left tackles this year, while Burns is pressuring quarterbacks at the seventh-highest rate among all edge defenders. Penix had a microscopic sack rate in 2023 and a very good 7.6 percent pressure-to-sack rate (in other words, he was very good at avoiding unnecessary sacks). However, much of that was due to a willingness to throw the ball away, as opposed to holding it and trying to extend the play. The Giants’ edge defenders might not stuff the stats sheet this game, but forcing throwaways could be preferable to asking the secondary to hold up against London, Mooney, McCloud, and Pitts.