Vikings Outlook for the Rest of the Regular Season

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Chicago Bears handily on Monday night, 30-12, despite sloppy play through most of the game, whether on offense, defense, or special teams. The Bears were a team mailing it in after being eliminated from the playoffs and once again experiencing front office turmoil.

On the face of it, it’s always good to come away with an 18-point victory over a division rival. But looking at the game from the perspective of playing well enough to beat a playoff team, the Vikings’ performance fell short. While the Vikings’ defense played well against an inept Bears offense hampered by a third-string left tackle, the offense and special teams had the kind of game that gets you beat in the playoffs. Darnold was off on a number of throws, there were a couple key drops, including Justin Jefferson dropping what looked to be a touchdown pass, and pass protection broke down at some key times as well. The Darnold interception wasn’t as big a mistake, given it came on fourth down when throwing the ball away wasn’t a good option, but the play call was a bit suspect as well. Defensively, Harrison Smith dropped an interception on a pass over the middle that would have been a big turnover.

Special teams was a disaster, with a blocked punt and another running into the kicker penalty which gave the ball back to the Bears.

And then there were the penalties. Most of them were on offense which put the Vikings behind the chains on a number of occasions, but Jonathan Greenard also had an offsides penalty that resulted in a free play for the Bears which they turned into a big gain.

Altogether, that type of sloppy performance against a better playoff team would result in a loss. If that happens in the postseason, that’s a season-ending performance. So for Kevin O’Connell and the rest of the coaching staff, the message after this game should be we can’t afford this type of performance again if we want to win the division, gain the first seed, and win the Super Bowl.

From a play-calling perspective, it wasn’t Kevin O’Connell’s best effort either. I’m not sure why there was a need to go 75% pass, 25% run against the Bears with the lead, and most of the pass plays seemed to be more of the big gain hunting variety which the Bears were shutting down. Some of that was due to penalties, but with a more balanced attack the Vikings may have avoided some stalled drives. O’Connell responded later in the game, which led to a long 12-play drive in the third quarter that put the Vikings up 20-3.

Still, the Vikings did well when it mattered, basically shutting out the Bears offensively on 3rd and 4th down, allowing just 2 conversions on 15 attempts; and also allowing just one red zone TD conversion in garbage time on three attempts, although the Bears erased a second red zone TD with a couple of penalties. Offensively the Vikings converted half of their 3rd down attempts and went 3-4 in the red zone against a Bears defense that has been one of the stingiest in the red zone this season.

Bottom line, however, the Vikings need to play cleaner, more mistake-free games from this point forward to win the division, gain the first seed, and win the Super Bowl.

External Factors Improve Vikings’ Chance of Winning the Division Crown and First Seed in the NFC Playoff Tournament

Outside of the Vikings own performance and stuff they can control, things have improved for the Vikings as they make a late season push for the division title and first seed in the playoffs.

Lions Loss Opens the Door for the Vikings

The Detroit Lions lost convincingly to the Bills on Sunday and defense gave up 48 points and 559 yards, which even the Lions’ top scoring offense going against a Bills defense down two safeties could not overcome. This was the loss that the Vikings needed from the Lions to allow their week 18 matchup to be for the division title and in all probability the first seed in the NFC playoff tournament.

The Vikings would need to beat the Seahawks and Packers between now and week 18 to play for the division title and first seed at Detroit, barring a collapse by both the Lions and Philadelphia Eagles to end the season, which is no small task, but certainly doable. The Vikings are currently 3-point road favorites at Seattle and 2-point favorites at home against the Packers week 17 according to Draftkings.

NFL Demolition Derby Continues

The NFL season is among other things a demolition derby where the healthiest teams are often those that advance the furthest. It’s an unpleasant reality in the NFL. Injuries to key players sunk the Vikings last season, and as the season wears on, the Detroit Lions are getting increasingly hard hit.

The Lions lost their best defensive tackle in Alim MacNeil for the season with an ACL injury suffered during the Bills game, while starting running back David Montgomery was lost for the season with an MCL tear. The Lions also lost their best cornerback in Carlton Davis III to a broken jaw (he’ll be out at least six weeks), and backup cornerback Khalil Dorsey was also lost for the season with a broken leg. These are in addition to several other season-ending injuries the Lions have suffered defensively.

The Lions defense has given up an average of nearly 40 points in their last two games against two good offenses in the Bills and Packers, but the loss of more key starters for the season is likely to put a lot of stress on the Detroit offense to win shootouts if their even more injury-depleted defense struggles to keep opponents out of the end zone. That, in turn, may take the Lions out of their preferred offensive scheme of running the ball behind their top run-blocking linemen of Penei Sewell, Kevin Zeitler, and Frank Ragnow.

Additionally, the Seattle Seahawks have a couple of key injuries they suffered in the Packers’ game last weekend. First, starting quarterback Geno Smith exited the game with a knee injury and did not return. It was later learned that he did not suffer any structural damage (i.e. ACL, MCL) but his availability against the Vikings on Sunday is questionable at this point. The Seahawks also lost their starting center Olu Oluwatimi in that game to a “quad/knee combo” injury and has been called ‘day-to-day’ by Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald. Geno Smith not being active for Sunday’s game would be a huge loss for the Seahawks, as backup Sam Howell was a disappointment in relief of Smith last weekend, to put it mildly. The Seahawks losing their starting center could also make protection calls a bit more difficult, which isn’t a good thing against Brian Flores’ defense.

The Vikings have managed to stay relatively healthy down the stretch so far, and continuing to do so will be key for the Vikings’ chances at a deep postseason run. Kevin O’Connell referenced his 2021 season with the Rams and Brian Flores’ experience playing into February with the Patriots and how “keeping guys fresh” was important in making those deep playoff runs. Both O’Connell and Flores have won Super Bowls as coordinators- O’Connell as offensive coordinator in 2021 under Sean McVay with the Rams and Flores as de facto defensive coordinator under Bill Belichick with the Patriots in 2018.

Short Week Advantage

Over the last three games of the regular season, the Vikings have a short week disadvantage this week traveling to Seattle. However, the Packers and Lions both play on Monday night ahead of their Vikings games, giving the Vikings the extra day advantage which can be valuable this late in the season when more players are banged up.

Vikings Postseason Odds Improving

The Vikings’ odds of winning the NFC North improved from +600 before last weekend to +210 after their win over the Bears. Similarly, their odds of winning the NFC have shortened to +600 and their odds of winning the Super Bowl are now +1200 according to Draftkings. Those are the best odds the Vikings have had to win the Super Bowl since the start of the 2017-18 postseason. The Lions and Eagles are both +475 and are the only NFC teams with better odds to win the Super Bowl at present.

Also, the Vikings are +380 to win the first seed in the NFC playoff tournament, behind the Lions at -105 and the Eagles at +170. For the Vikings, it really comes down to whether they can win out or not. If they win out and the Eagles win out, the Vikings will almost certainly win the tie-breaker with the Eagles which would come down to strength of victory. The Vikings currently trail the Eagles in that metric, but wins over the Seahawks, Packers, and Lions would cause them to overtake the Eagles, even if the Eagles win the rest of their games. The only way the Eagles can win the first seed is if both the Lions and Vikings lose at least one more game and the Eagles win out.

NFC Playoff Seedings Taking Shape

There is still three weeks left in the regular season, which means anything can happen to change this outlook, but currently the NFC playoff seedings are shaping up this way:

1. Lions or Vikings. Eagles a possibility, but less likely.
2. Eagles. This is worst-case scenario for the Eagles, but also the most likely.
3. Buccaneers. They win the tie-breaker with the Rams in most scenarios.
4. Rams. They have a tougher remaining schedule than the Bucs, but easier than Seahawks’.
5. Vikings or Lions. Most likely whoever loses week 18.
6. Packers. Could be #5 if they beat the Vikings and the Lions or Seahawks do too.
7. Commanders. They seem pretty locked in here. Atlanta and Seattle have tougher schedules and are a game or two behind currently, and Packers have a game advantage and an easier remaining schedule.

Postseason Outlook

So, given that outlook for playoff seeding, either the Vikings get a first-round bye if they gain the first seed, or if they gain the fifth seed most likely play the Rams again on the road in the wild card round.

If the Vikings advance to the division round, it’s anybody’s guess who they’ll play, but it’ll be a good team, as will be the case every step of the way in the playoffs. At this point, the Vikings have played their last game against a bad team, unless the Seahawks are forced to start Sam Howell this Sunday at quarterback. But the Vikings have played their last game against a team with a losing record and by Sunday will have played their last game against a non-playoff team if they haven’t already.

That means the Vikings can’t afford to play another sloppy game and expect to win. The Vikings are 2-2 against likely playoff teams so far this season and will likely need to beat one of those playoff teams they lost to earlier this season to advance to the division round, one way or another.

Stay tuned.

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