The Detroit Lions remain in control of their own destiny, but their chances at the NFC’s top playoff seed are significantly lower now.
Week 15 was not kind to the Detroit Lions. Not only did they drop their game against the Buffalo Bills and suffer four season-ending injuries, but the teams the Lions needed to lose didn’t. Our Week 15 rooting guide went 0-7 on Sunday and Monday, and it’s left the Lions in a much tighter playoff race than the week prior. Here’s a look at the playoff standings through the entirety of the week.
NFC North:
- Lions: 12-2
- Vikings: 12-2
- Packers: 10-4
- Bears: 4-10
The Lions and Vikings are tied for the top of the NFC North, but Detroit currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their Week 7 win over the Vikings. Minnesota currently has a chance to bring that tiebreaker to even if they beat Detroit in Week 18, but the next tiebreaker would be division record. Currently the Lions hold the advantage there (4-0 vs. 3-1).
Here’s what you need to know: If the Vikings slip up once in the next two games (at Seahawks or vs. Packers) and the Lions win both of their next two (at Bears, at 49ers), there will be no way the Vikings can catch them. Because even if Minnesota beats the Lions and tie up the head-to-head and divisional record tiebreakers, the Lions would have the edge in conference record (10-2 vs. 9-3).
If the Lions lose either of their next two games and the Vikings win at least one (or both teams win the next two games) the NFC North will be on the line in Week 18.
NFC playoff race:
- Lions: 12-2
- Eagles: 12-2
- Buccaneers: 8-6
- Rams: 8-6
Wild Card race (top three advance)
5. Vikings: 12-2
6. Packers: 10-4
7. Commanders: 9-5
8. Seahawks: 8-6
9. Falcons: 7-7
10. Cardinals: 7-7
11. 49ers: 6-8
12. Cowboys: 6-8
13. Saints: 5-9
Eliminated:
Bears: 4-10
Panthers: 3-11
Giants: 2-12
The Lions hold the conference record tiebreaker over the Eagles (8-1 vs. 7-2). So all the Lions need to do is match the Eagles’ record the rest of the way to finish ahead of them (assuming they finish above the Vikings, as well). The problem is the Eagles’ schedule is fairly easy the rest of the way: at Commanders, then a pair of home games vs. the Cowboys and Giants.
Lions playoff seeding odds
Odds to win the NFC North:
Note: Change in odds are compared to where they stood last week (Dec. 11):
NYT: 82% (-8%)
DVOA: 74.9% (-16.5%)
ESPN: 76.9% (-10.9%)
Washington Post: 71% (-19%)
Despite being tied with the Vikings in record, Detroit still holds a pretty commanding probability to win the division. That’s because they currently hold the tiebreakers in head-to-head, divisional record, and common games (Lions beat Rams, Vikings lost to them). In any scenario in which the two teams end up with the same record at the end of the season, one of those tiebreakers will hold in Detroit’s favor. So the only chance the Vikings have at surpassing the Lions is if they finish with a better record.
The Packers actually still have one route to winning the division, but it requires the Lions and Vikings to tie in Week 18.
Odds to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed
NYT: 52% (-25%)
DVOA: 47.8% (-32.8%)
ESPN: 53.8% (-20.6%)
Washington Post: 43% (-31%)
The Lions now have essentially a 50/50 shot at the top seed in the NFC after being around 80% last week. They still control their own destiny, though, so if they can just win the last three games, it’s theirs.
