The Giants are still the favorites, but they need help
If the 2024 NFL season ended today, the New York Giants would hold the second overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, per Tankathon.
From that perspective, at least, nothing has changed for the Giants and the status quo holds true. But from a bigger picture perspective, Week 15 was as close to a disaster for the Giants’ draft position as possible without a “moral victory” over the penalty-ridden Baltimore Ravens.
The biggest blow of the weekend was the Las Vegas Raiders losing a winnable game to the Atlanta Falcons, falling 15-9. Beyond that, several of the teams the Giants needed to lose to lower their strength of schedule came away with victories. Because of that, while the Raiders’ strength of schedule stayed nearly the same (dropping just 0.001), the Giants’ strength of schedule has risen to 0.550. That’s given them the third-highest strength of schedule in the NFL, trailing only the San Francisco 49ers (0.569) and the Chicago Bears (0.559).
Top 10 draft order
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12 | 0.538)
- New York Giants (2-12 | 0.550)
- New England Patriots (3-11 | 0.462)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11 | 0.483)
- Carolina Panthers (3-11 | 0.496)
- Tennessee Titans (3-11 | 0.508)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11 | 0.525)
- New York Jets (4-10 | 0.508)
- Chicago Bears (4-10 | 0.559)
- New Orleans Saints (5-9 | 0.496)
The Giants now have to walk a very narrow path to get to the first overall pick. Not only do they need to lose out, but they need the Raiders to win a game or enough of their previous opponents to lose that they win their strength of schedule tiebreakers.
As it stands now, the Giants will lose most tiebreakers they face thanks to their strength of schedule. A single win could drop the Giants all the way down to seventh in the draft order.
For fans finding that hard to stomach, consider the losses an investment. A sacrifice today that can pay off in the future. A 3-14 season that lands the Giants at No. 7 overall could be potentially disastrous.
Falling just five spots could take the Giants out of position to draft either top quarterback without a pricy trade up. Or, if the Giants don’t like either of the quarterbacks, it could also lock them out of drafting one of the “blue chip” prospects (CB/WR Travis Hunter, CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham, OT Will Campbell) or using them as trade bait for another team.
Making matters worse this week, quarterback prospects Garrett Neussmeier (LSU) and Drew Allar (Penn State) have both announced they are returning to school for the 2025 season. They made the correct decision for themselves and their draft stock, but it takes viable developmental prospects off the board if that was the route the Giants wanted to go.
With Neussmeier and Allar going back to school, the Giants’ options for a “developmental” quarterback are Jalen Milroe (assuming he, too, doesn’t return to school), Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss), and Kurtis Rourke (Indiana).
Quinn Ewers (Texas) and Carson Beck (Georgia) are considered more pro-ready options, but both have been largely disappointing this year. Beck also suffered an elbow injury in the SEC Championship and his long-term status is (as yet) unknown. He has one more year of eligibility and could also return to school.
We don’t know who will be calling the shots or coaching up the players in 2025, but regardless of who they are, they’re going to want as many options available as possible. Those paths forward, however, seem to be narrowing with every week that passes.
