Cool stat, but what does it mean?
The Indianapolis Colts are the highest scoring team in the league…
Ok, so maybe not across an entire game, but in the fourth quarter, they most certainly are. What does a number like this mean? What does it tell us? Anything? A statistic like this may not lead us to too many conclusions, but there are interesting takeaways we might be able to glean.
At 118 points, the Colts beat out the Eagles for fourth quarter superiority by two. Being in first means they are above all the juggernauts like the Lions, Chiefs, and Bills. At 6-7, scoring the most points in the fourth quarter hasn’t necessarily translated to wins, while teams lower on the list have had more success in the win column. In fact, the Lions, who may be the best team in football, are fifth from the bottom. At first blush, it seems like this doesn’t make sense. Upon further reflection, however, it makes perfect sense because it is a stat that can be misleading, unimportant, or even related to chance.
A team scoring a lot of points in the fourth quarter could mean a few things. It could be garbage time and teams are giving up meaningless stats. It could mean a team is clutch and either climbing back into games or putting them away. Take the last three weeks. Points scored against the Jets and Patriots in the fourth were absolutely clutch. Those are game winning fourth quarter drives that are essential to success. Those were signs of a good team and positive growth.
Take the game against the Lions, however. Trailing 24-6, any points scored in the fourth, especially late, would have counted towards the Colts total but would have done absolutely nothing towards changing the outcome. While it is nice to see a team come on hot in the fourth, it can be too little too late. If the first three quarters were duds or there was a major dry spell for the offense, the points scored late might not move the needle.
It’s a fun stat, but it’s really nothing more than that. Scoring late can be crucial and separate good teams from the great ones. In the case of the Colts, it hasn’t translated to wins. Someone with more time could do a deep dive into each game’s fourth quarter, but from my 30,000 foot view, it doesn’t seem to truly matter. If the Colts can continue to build on what we have seen over their last two wins, however, that could all change going forward.
