Most are expecting a shootout between the Lions and Bills on Sunday, but are we in for a surprise? Check out this week’s bold prediction.
Everyone and their mother is expecting a shootout between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. After all, both teams feature offenses that are arguably and statistically the best in the league. The Lions and Bills are coming off 34- and 42-point performances, respectively.
Why would anyone expect differently on Sunday? Let’s dive into it.
Bold prediction of the week: Lions and Bills have low-scoring slugfest, first to 24 takes the game
We know both of these teams have high-powered offenses, but what does the rest of the matchup shake out like? Well, for starters, pretty good defenses. The Bills pass defense and run defense rank 11th and 8th in the league in DVOA, respectively. The Lions pass and run defenses rank 1st (!) and 6th in DVOA, respectively. You can read more about those matchups in this week’s On Paper.
The Lions maintain those defensive rankings in spite of a carousel of players on their defense. After entering Week 14 already decimated, the Lions watched several more starters head to the sideline throughout their Thursday night matchup against the Packers. With a mini-bye week since then, though, the Lions are looking as healthy as we could reasonably expect. Alim McNeill, D.J. Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike have all been cleared from the injury report as of Friday afternoon. That’s a huge boon to the interior of the defensive line, which will be tasked to shut down James Cook and the Bills’ rushing attack, making Buffalo one-dimensional.
The Bills defense has held their own against some very respectable offenses, too. In the last two months, the Bills have held the Seahawks, Chiefs, and 49ers offenses to 10, 21, and 10 points, respectively. That’s no joke. Their defense remains really healthy for this point in the year, and they’re slated to be down just one starter in Week 15 in Rasul Douglas.
On top of the strong matchups, I’m betting on the Bills having a bit of a hangover effect. After watching the Bills put up 42 points a week ago, it’s easy to think they’re going to do the same to the Lions. But often times it’s the opposite effect. The Bills left it all on the field in a thrilling game and came up short; it’s hard to turn around and replicate that effort. The Lions, on the other hand, are coming off of a close win with three extra days of rest and several players returning to full health.
There’s a lot of reason to think I could be very wrong here. The Bills, as a team, are very healthy and moved two starting receivers off the injury report on Friday. They’ve clearly shown they can put up points against good defenses. Josh Allen is playing clean football, with no interceptions the last two weeks after throwing five in the four games prior. And while the Lions’ defense is healthy relative to last week, they’re still down several of their best players. However Buffalo is coming to town against a well-rested Lions team playing at home, and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has found a way to shut down the most formidable of opponents this year no matter who is manning his defense.
The Bills haven’t scored less than 30 points since early October. The Lions, just once since September. Here’s to hoping the Lions put up a lot more than 24 points. But I could see this being a low-scoring game, at least by the standard of the teams involved. Sunday, I’m taking whoever gets to 24 first.
