The Honolulu Blueprint: 10 keys to a Lions victory over the Bills

For the third game in a row, the Detroit Lions (12-1) will play inside the comfy confines of Ford Field. In Week 15, they host the Buffalo Bills (10-3) and if the Lions want to continue their hot streak, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 15 Preview: Breaking down Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Key 1: Establish an early run game vs. Jekyll and Hyde DL

The Lions will always prioritize establishing the run, but it will be especially important in this game as they attempt to control the clock and keep the Bills’ offense on the sidelines. While they’re coming off a “good” performance on the ground against the Packers, it was not up to their standards, according to Lions running backs coach and assistant head coach Scottie Montgomery.

“It is a standard,” Montgomery said on Wednesday. “A lot of people would say, ‘Man, you guys got 100 yards, good.’ But good is the enemy of great, and around here our standard is great. We magnify the things we don’t quite do as well as we would like, and that’s why we are great. And that’s why the O-line is where they are, but we need to be better this week.”

Montgomery went on to discuss how the run game connected to every part of their offense and the team has buckled down to make sure they get back to their standard this week against the Bills.

On paper, the Bills are a bit up and down. They perform very high in some areas while struggling in others, despite having adjacent stats. To elaborate a bit further, here is an excerpt from our Bills scheme breakdown:

For example, they are the top team in the NFL in “stuffed rate,” meaning they stop runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 23.6% of run plays. Yet, running backs average 1.62 yards before contact (23rd) and 3.11 yards after contact (22nd). Buffalo has given up 49 rushes of 10+ yards (26th) and allow 4.7 yards per carry (26th). Essentially, what this shows is that unless the defensive line is stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage, they are often susceptible to explosive plays on the ground.

The Bills hit-and-miss run defense starts with their play design, as they live in subpackages, nearly 100% of the time. As a result, their base defense deploys four down defensive linemen, two off-the-ball linebackers, and will often drop a nickel corner in the box as a seventh defender. They only bring an eighth defender (typically a safety) into the box 7% of the time, the lowest percentage in the NFL.

These light boxes create opportunities for strong rushing attacks and offensive lines to take advantage. Heading into this game, the Lions rushing offense has only been “stuffed” 13.7% of the time (fourth best), making this a power-vs-power contest. If the Lions can reduce the Bills’ impact to make stops at the line of scrimmage, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should have opportunities to re-establish a “great” rushing attack.

Key 2: Offensive line stability should disrupt Bills unpredictability

One of the Bills’ counters to a light box is to disguise assignments pre-snap. Fortunately for the Lions, their offensive line is terrific in picking up misdirection and communicating adjustments on the fly.

Because the Bills carry this unpredictability into their coverage scheme, the Lions offensive line will also need to make sure they give quarterback Jared Goff time to assess the situation and make the correct read. On average, the Bills need 2.7 seconds before they’re able to generate pressure (21st), while Goff takes on average 2.78 seconds to throw (15th). Meaning, if the offensive line can hold a tick longer, they’ll set Goff up for success.

The key matchup will be Lions right tackle Penei Sewell vs. Bills left defensive end (63.1% of the time) Gregory Rousseau. As a team, the Bills have 152 pressures (20th) through 13 games, while Rousseau accounts for 44, 19 more than every other Bills defender (Ed Oliver has 25, Von Miller 21, DaQuan Jones 17, A.J. Epenesa 16, and everyone else is in single digits).

According to NextGen Stats, “Sewell has allowed the 5th-lowest pressure rate among right tackles with at least 150 pass blocks this season (6.6%) and has allowed more than 3 pressures in just one game this season (Week 6 vs Cowboys).”

If Sewell can outperform Rousseau, Goff will have time to cook. When Goff has time to operate in a clean pocket (which he typically gets 66.7% of the time) his numbers skyrocket. His completion percentage rises to 79%, his yards per pass attempt are an impressive 9.1, and he has an 87.5 grade from PFF.

Key 3: Take time in passing game, find the open option

The Bills run zone coverage around 74-77% of the time (eighth most per PFF, fifth most per NextGen Stats), and against this style of defense, Goff will often take what’s there, hitting the open man, and putting him in a situation to gain yards after the catch (YAC). On the season, Goff is gaining 8.4 yards per attempt against zone coverage, sixth best in the NFL.

To the Bills’ credit, while they conceded the 18th most YAC in the NFL, they only allow the second-most YAC above expectations, meaning that if they’re in a position to make the tackle, they typically do.

One potential pitfall Goff needs to be conscious of is the fact that all 10 of his interceptions on the season have come against zone coverage. As discussed above, if the Lions’ offensive line can buy Goff time to dissect the Bills’ coverage, he can avoid turnovers, but if Buffalo can manage to gain pressure, Goff will need to be both quick and sharp.

In all, It’ll be up to Goff to be patient with his receivers running open, to identify the openings in the zone, as well as the disguise, and make clean throws.

Key 4: Be prepared to score a lot of points

The Bills have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 30.5 points scored per game. They only trail the Lions and their league-leading 32.1 points scored per game. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, which is something the Lions are preparing for.

“If they score a ton of points, we’ve got to score a ton of points and vice versa. If we score a ton of points, then they’ve got to score a ton of points,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said. “I think we see that. That game last week that they played in. The Rams scored, whatever, 40-something, and they had to kind of play catch up at the end, and sure enough, they were able to and almost made it close.”

Key 5: Win on third down

So much of the national narrative surrounding the Lions this week has surrounded coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness on fourth down (Note: if you missed Ty Schalter’s unlocked PODD piece to counter this argument, it’s worth your time). And while I readily embrace the Lions’ aggressive nature in these situations (they convert 68.18% of the time, sixth best in the NFL), I would encourage the coaching staff to take care of business on third down against the Bills, because they’re stopping teams 44% of the time on fourth downs, fifth best in the NFL.

Heading into this game, here’s who these two teams compare on third downs:

• Bills stop offenses on third down 43.23% of the time, 25th in the NFL
• Lions convert on third down 45.81% of the time, fourth best in the NFL

With the top two scoring offenses battling it out, extended drives that end in touchdowns will be at a premium, and it would be in the best interest of the Lions to take advantage of the numbers on third down by staying aggressive.

“They found a way to keep it going there on third down,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of the Rams’ success against the Bills. “And it was a combination of the primary receiver getting open, it was beating man coverage, it was (Rams QB Matthew) Stafford extending the play and making some plays in streetball – more mentality. And so, our guys, we just watched all those third downs back-to-back-to-back and our guys understand what the task is at hand.”

Key 6: Lots of base personnel

When Joe Brady took over halfway through 2023, the Bills re-dedicated themselves to the run game. In 2024, one of the ways that they have managed to have success is by running 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) around 20% of the time, and deploying a sixth offensive lineman around 15% of the time. This approach is designed to add extra blockers into the fold while forcing defenses out of their preferred subpackage sets and into more base seven-man front formations.

Fortunately for the Lions, nobody runs more base defense in the NFL than them, and it remains a heavily used package, despite the injury issues at linebacker. Last week against the Packers, the Lions kept three linebackers on the field 64% of the time, a number that could be replicated against the Bills this week.

Key 7: Prioritize stopping the run, especially inside

The Bills have rededicated themselves to running the ball. They will try to establish themselves by running between the tackles, will add extra blockers to help drive success, and rarely move away from it, even if it’s not working, as it sets up other aspects of their offense—all similar traits to the Lions offense.

By the pure numbers, the Bills have a top-11 rushing attack (rushing yards per game, per carry, yards after contact, etc) but they’re efficient and boast a 0.12 run EPA (third best in the NFL), while also boasting the fifth-best DVOA rushing offense score.

While the Lions will never truly make the Bills one-dimensional, Buffalo’s game against the Rams last week showed how they will alter their priorities when trailing.

Key 8: Keep Josh Allen from repeating Superman performance

Against the Rams, Allen took over the game in a comeback effort and scored six (!) touchdowns, three through the air and another three on the ground.

“He’s got a big-time arm, he’s accurate, he can read defenses, and then he’s got the physical ability to take off and run, and he can run over people, he can run around you, he can get on the perimeter,” Campbell said of Allen. “So, this is going to be a huge task for us, this is not going to be easy.”

So how do they slow him down?

“Well, the first thing that we have to do, we have to stay in coverage,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said of defending Allen. “And our DBs know that (because) he can extend plays. We have to make sure we don’t allow him to make these off-schedule plays like he’s made throughout his career, and when we do have him, man, we have to wrap and it has to be population to the ball to make sure that we get him tied up and get him to the ground. Listen, it is hard to tackle this guy, I mean, we all know that, but I think our guys look forward to that.”

Key 9: Terrion needs to be on his game

When examining Allen’s tendencies, he tends to find the most success when throwing to his left at all levels of the field. That will put a lot of responsibility on Lions rookie corner Terrion Arnold, who tends to work on that side of the field. Fortunately for the Lions, Arnold has shown consistent growth throughout the season and is playing at a high level right now.

“He’s starting to push through this and he’s gaining enough valuable reps, experience, he’s not letting the grind of the season weigh him down and he’s getting better,” Campbell said of Arnold.

Campbell would go on to say he notices similar traits in Arnold that he saw in Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill, and others, in that he is skipping past the rookie wall and continuing to elevate his game. Glenn echoed Campbell’s sentiments.

“Ice water in his veins, understands how we play, wants to challenge people in man coverage, and really understands a lot better how to play zone coverage,” Glenn said of Arnold. “So, as he continues to progress in this League, he’s just going to get better and better and better. And listen, we’re putting a lot of pressure on this player by the way that we play, but there’s no other way that he would want it. So, I’m glad we’ve got him for the simple fact that he’s going to be one of the top corners in this League as his years progress.”

Arnold should get a lot of action in this game, so he’ll need to continue to elevate his game.

Key 10: Execute on special teams

The Bills special teams units have struggled all season and currently rank 29th in DVOA. They’re coming off a game where they had multiple gaffes, including allowing a blocked punt to be returned for a touchdown, and only putting nine players on the field on the final punt of the game.

The Lions will want to keep Buffalo’s offense in tough spots, and with their special teams underperforming, Campbell sees an opportunity for Detroit to take advantage.

“We need something out of our special teams,” Campbell said. “Our special teams unit needs to show up for us, field position will be huge in this game.”

When asked about possible pressure with Campbell pointing to special teams added value this week, special teams coordinator Dave Fipp alluded to the fact that the plan is to go about business as usual, execute their assignments, and good things will come from that—like it has all year.

“So, for us, the goal is to go out there and play great, have 11 guys execute, do their job with everything they’ve got, and hopefully at some point the opportunity will present itself, and if that comes on special teams, then great,” Fipp said. “I know our guys will end up being ready and making a play. I think it’s hard to go chase a play is my point. That’s really when you end up getting in trouble and you try to make things happen. I think this game’s all about execution, the teams that execute the best end up winning.”

The Lions have executed on special teams all season and have been ranked the No. 1 special teams DVOA unit in the NFL for the last two months. They indeed don’t have to do anything extra, simply take advantage when the Bills present an opportunity.